Humanity’s greatest challenge in becoming a multi-planet species may not be building bigger rockets or landing astronauts on Mars. Instead, it could come down to the question: Can humans safely conceive, carry pregnancies, and raise healthy children off Earth?

A new review published in Frontiers in Space Technologies argues that the answer to this question remains unclear. Drawing on decades of research on animal reproduction in space alongside emerging advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, synthetic biology, and cybernetic systems, the researchers suggest that future generations born off Earth may require technologies far beyond today’s medical capabilities.

In the most speculative sections of the paper, researchers even envision a scenario in which reproduction itself acts as a tool for helping humans gradually adapt to life in space.

Rather than presenting new experiments, the paper synthesizes existing evidence while outlining possible technological pathways that could someday enable permanent human settlements on the Moon, Mars, or even deeper into the solar system.

The central message is that surviving in space is only the first hurdle. Establishing self-sustaining civilizations will ultimately depend on whether human reproduction can succeed under conditions of microgravity, radiation, isolation, and other environmental stresses that evolution never prepared us to face.

“It is proposed that prenatal and early postnatal developmental stages may constitute critical biological windows for facilitating long-term adaptation to space,” researchers write. “Such interactions could ultimately transform reproduction and early development into active drivers of human evolution, contributing to the emergence of biologically distinct populations progressively adapted to diverse space environments.”

Despite more than six decades of human spaceflight, no human has ever conceived or carried a pregnancy in space. Therefore, science has little direct evidence about what would happen if astronauts attempted to start families off Earth. Nearly everything researchers know comes from studies involving animals ranging from sea urchins and fish to frogs, birds, mice, and rats.

The results are encouraging in some respects but troubling in others.

Several non-mammalian species have successfully reproduced in orbit. Medaka fish, for example, became the first vertebrates to reproduce in space, with fertilization rates comparable to those seen on Earth. Yet, even when reproduction occurs successfully, researchers have documented developmental abnormalities in some species, suggesting that space environments can slightly modify embryonic development.

Rodent studies paint an even more complicated picture. Fertilization is not impossible under microgravity, but early embryonic development frequently suffers. Experiments have shown reduced blastocyst formation, slower embryo development, lower live birth rates, and changes in gene expression. Other studies have linked space radiation to DNA damage, genomic instability, and developmental defects affecting the nervous system.

At the same time, some findings show surprising resilience. Mouse embryos cultured aboard the International Space Station have developed into apparently normal blastocysts under certain conditions. In contrast, freeze-dried mouse sperm stored in orbit for months later produced healthy offspring after returning to Earth.

These mixed findings suggest that reproduction may be biologically possible, but far from routine, under space conditions.

In their review, researchers also examined growing evidence that spaceflight affects male and female reproductive health even before conception occurs.

Microgravity and radiation appear capable of disrupting sperm production, reducing testosterone levels, altering ovarian function, impairing egg maturation, and interfering with hormone regulation.

Some studies suggest sperm can still swim under simulated microgravity, but lose their capability to navigate effectively toward an egg. Others report that radiation accelerates the depletion of ovarian follicles and increases DNA damage in reproductive cells.

More concerning is the possibility that some biological changes could be passed to future generations through epigenetic mechanisms. Experiments involving mice have suggested that spaceflight may alter gene regulation in sperm and influence gene expression in offspring, although the long-term significance is still unknown.

For women, pregnancy itself could present an even greater challenge. On Earth, pregnancy requires profound cardiovascular changes that help deliver oxygen and nutrients to a growing fetus. Microgravity, however, causes fluid redistribution, muscle loss, reduced blood volume, bone demineralization, and changes in cardiovascular function that could interfere with placental development and fetal growth. Radiation exposure, oxidative stress, circadian disruption, and limited medical support would only add to those risks.

Researchers argue that simply shielding astronauts from radiation may not be enough. Gravity itself appears to function as a biological signal that influences everything from cell organization to tissue development. That realization carries renewed interest in artificial gravity as a potential solution.

Instead of depending solely on habitats built on the Moon or Mars, future space settlements could include rotating structures that generate centrifugal force to recreate Earth-like gravity.

Such habitats have appeared in science fiction for decades, but researchers suggest they may ultimately become essential for healthy conception, pregnancy, childhood development, and multigenerational life off Earth.

Researchers propose dedicated orbital research platforms where scientists could systematically study reproduction under lunar, Martian, or custom-designed gravity levels before humans attempt permanent settlements.

Artificial intelligence also features prominently in the researchers’ vision of the future. They propose AI-powered “digital twins” capable of integrating biological, physiological, and environmental data to simulate how embryos, pregnancies, and developing children might respond to different gravitational and radiation environments. These computer simulations could help researchers examine scenarios that would be difficult, or ethically impossible, to test directly in humans.

Perhaps the paper’s most futuristic proposal is something the researchers call Synthetic Reproductive Adaptive Enhancement Technology, or SRAET. This speculative concept envisions highly automated reproductive systems combining artificial wombs, advanced reproductive biotechnology, biosensors, AI-assisted monitoring, and predictive developmental modeling into a closed-loop environment capable of supporting conception through birth under carefully controlled conditions.

The framework explores the controversial possibility that future advances in gene editing and synthetic biology could one day help humans adapt biologically to off-world environments.

Researchers emphasize that such ideas are still speculative and acknowledge the enormous ethical, biological, and safety concerns surrounding germline modification, off-target mutations, and multigenerational consequences. Rather than advocating immediate implementation, they present these possibilities as conceptual pathways that justify careful scientific and ethical discussion.

For fans of science fiction, many of these concepts may sound remarkably familiar. Yet, researchers attempt to ground their arguments in existing developmental biology, reproductive medicine, aerospace engineering, and space medicine while clearly distinguishing current evidence from future speculation.

In the end, researchers suggest that the future of human space travel may depend less on propulsion systems than on understanding how life develops under entirely new environmental conditions. If humanity hopes to establish permanent settlements off Earth, science will first need to ensure that future generations are able to begin life safely under alien skies.

“Ultimately, the greatest challenge of human expansion beyond Earth may not be transporting humans into space, but understanding how life itself can develop, adapt, and evolve under space conditions,” researchers write. “In this sense, SRAET would not merely support reproduction beyond Earth; it would represent a developmental biotechnology through which humanity may begin to actively participate in shaping its own evolutionary future.”

Study: Ferraz M, Moeharram L. “Past, present and future of human reproduction and development in space.” Frontiers in Space Technologies. 2026.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

Researchers have demonstrated an unusual new form of 3D printing capable of building entirely new structures directly onto—and even around—existing objects in just seconds. In a series of experiments, the technique printed microscopic fluid channels around embedded glass spheres, fabricated precision gears onto polished steel rods, and even built a miniature lens directly onto the surface of a working LED.

The breakthrough, described in a paper published in Nature Communications, relies on an advanced form of tomographic volumetric additive manufacturing (TVAM) that allows researchers to “overprint” new structures onto components made from a wide range of materials, including metal, glass, and preassembled microfluidic components. Instead of constructing objects layer by layer like conventional 3D printers, the system projects precisely calculated light patterns into a rotating vat of photosensitive resin, causing an entire three-dimensional object to solidify almost simultaneously within seconds.

The advancement could represent a major step toward making volumetric 3D printing practical in real-world manufacturing environments, where new components often must be integrated with parts that already exist.

It additionally highlights the growing sophistication of computational techniques that can accurately model how light behaves as it passes through materials that absorb, scatter, refract, or reflect light.

“Tomographic Volumetric Additive Manufacturing (TVAM) is a light-based 3D printing technique capable of producing centimeter-scale objects within seconds,” researchers write. “This work demonstrates a broad range of overprinting scenarios, where new structures are directly printed onto or around pre-existing components made from different materials.”

Unlike conventional stereolithography or fused-filament printers that gradually build an object from one direction, tomographic volumetric printing projects hundreds of two-dimensional light patterns into a rotating container filled with liquid resin.

As the resin accumulates enough light energy, the desired three-dimensional structure appears almost simultaneously throughout the volume rather than emerging layer by layer. The approach can produce centimeter-scale objects in mere seconds.

However, until now, one of the technology’s greatest challenges has been accurately calculating how light travels through complicated environments.

Existing objects inside the resin can block, scatter, or bend incoming light, degrading print quality. Conventional models often assume these objects are either completely transparent or completely opaque. This is an oversimplification that breaks down in realistic manufacturing scenarios.

To overcome those limitations, the team developed an upgraded computational framework called Dr.TVAM. Built upon physically based ray tracing, the software models how light propagates through materials with different optical properties while simultaneously optimizing the projected light patterns needed to create the desired object.

Because the framework accounts for reflection, refraction, scattering, absorption, and arbitrary container shapes, it can successfully print structures around components that previously would have interfered with the process.

One of the study’s most compelling demonstrations involved manufacturing microfluidic channels directly inside sealed, preassembled square chambers. Microfluidic devices contain microscopic channels that transport tiny volumes of liquids and are widely used in biomedical research, diagnostics, and organ-on-a-chip systems.

Instead of fabricating the channels separately and assembling the device afterward—a process that can introduce contamination or leaks—the researchers successfully printed perfusable channels directly inside an already assembled chamber while accounting for inlet and outlet structures that would otherwise obstruct the light.

They demonstrated straight channels, branching networks, and spiral geometries capable of carrying fluid after fabrication. Supplementary demonstrations showed colored dye successfully flowing through the finished structures.

The researchers then pushed the concept even further by creating what they describe as context-aware printing. In this experiment, they embedded two tiny glass spheres inside a hydrogel-filled chamber, rapidly determined each sphere’s three-dimensional position using two camera images, and generated customized print patterns in less than a minute.

Those optimized projections produced hollow channels connecting each sphere to inlet and outlet ports while simultaneously printing protective cavities around the spheres themselves. The complete workflow—from detecting the embedded objects to generating printing instructions and fabricating the final structure—required less than three minutes.

That ability could eventually enable highly customized biomedical manufacturing, where printers automatically adapt to the precise location of living tissues, organoids, or other biological materials rather than requiring perfect positioning beforehand.

Another experiment highlighted why precisely modeling light matters.

Previous demonstrations of volumetric overprinting treated metal components as though they completely absorbed incoming light. In reality, polished metal reflects and scatters significant amounts of light, creating distortions that reduce print quality.

Researchers tested both assumptions by printing a gear directly onto a polished steel rod. When the software ignored scattered light, the gear’s fine holes became over-polymerized and poorly defined.

After including realistic scattering behavior into the optical model, however, the resulting gear preserved those elaborate features far more accurately, increasing simulated print fidelity substantially. The improvement was confirmed experimentally.

Researchers even went as far as demonstrating that the process could print directly onto an electronic component.

Using an LED-based volumetric printing system, the researchers fabricated both a miniature lens and a small cross-shaped symbol directly onto the surface of a red LED. When illuminated, the printed lens projected the symbol onto a screen, successfully transforming the LED into a tiny optical projector without requiring additional assembly. The experiment showcased how optical elements themselves could potentially be integrated directly onto existing electronic hardware during manufacturing.

Beyond the individual demonstrations, the work additionally underscores an important trend in additive manufacturing: increasingly sophisticated software is becoming just as important as advances in hardware.

Instead of relying on simplified mathematical approximations, the new framework performs physically based optical simulations capable of modeling arbitrary geometries along with material properties.

The software has been released as open source, along with configuration files and experimental data, allowing other researchers to reproduce and expand upon the 3D printing work.

Although the current demonstrations remain laboratory-scale, the possible implications could extend well beyond experimental 3D printing. Biomedical researchers could eventually fabricate sterile microfluidic systems without multi-step assembly. Optical engineers may integrate lenses directly onto light sources. Manufacturers could add custom features to finished components without redesigning entire production processes.

Researchers also note that future improvements could further increase realism through incorporating additional physical effects, including changes in refractive index during polymerization and the diffusion of chemical inhibitors during printing. Those refinements could expand the technology’s accuracy and enable even more complex manufacturing scenarios.

“In summary, Dr.TVAM, our computational framework, has shown to be capable of modeling different optical situations for TVAM,” researchers write. “We believe this significantly expands the application space for TVAM, enabling the creation of complex, functionalized, and multi-component devices from applications in mechanics, optics, or biofabrication.”

Study: Wechsler F, et al. “Overprinting with tomographic volumetric additive manufacturing.” Nature Communications (2026).

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

In recent years, advances in ancient DNA sequencing have redefined our understanding of human evolution, revealing that our species did not emerge in isolation but repeatedly interbred with close evolutionary relatives like Neanderthals and Denisovans.

Yet one of the field’s greatest mysteries has remained unanswered: What if some of our ancestors also encountered extinct human groups whose DNA has never been recovered from fossils? Now, a recent study published in Science suggests researchers may finally have found a way to detect those long-lost relatives.

Instead of relying on ancient bones or preserved genomes, researchers developed a powerful computational approach capable of identifying genetic traces of previously unknown archaic humans using only the genomes of living people.

Applying the technique to modern populations around the world, the researchers uncovered evidence that an unidentified “ghost” hominin contributed DNA to the ancestors of all living humans before the great migration out of Africa.

Researchers also found new evidence providing evidence for the existence of an even older “super-archaic” human lineage whose genetic legacy may survive today through Denisovan ancestry in Oceania.

“Admixture between modern humans and extinct hominins has shaped the genomes of present-day individuals, but reconstructing this history has been constrained by the scarcity of archaic samples and unadmixed outgroup populations,” researchers write. “We introduce TRACE, a reference- and outgroup-free approach that uses features of ancestral recombination graphs to identify archaic ancestry.”

Past research has sequenced only a handful of high-quality archaic human genomes, all from Eurasia. While those genomes have revealed that most people outside Africa carry roughly 1 to 2 percent Neanderthal DNA and that many Asian and Oceanian populations also inherited Denisovan ancestry, scientists have long suspected those known groups represented only part of humanity’s evolutionary history.

Previous genetic studies had hinted that modern humans, especially African populations, contained fragments of DNA from unidentified archaic relatives. However, because no fossil genomes exist for those populations, proving their existence has been extraordinarily difficult.

The new method, called TRACE, short for “TRacking Archaic Contributions via ARG Estimation,” takes a fundamentally different approach. Rather than comparing modern DNA against known Neanderthal or Denisovan genomes, it reconstructs ancestral recombination graphs. These enormous evolutionary family trees trace how pieces of DNA have been inherited over hundreds of thousands of years.

These ancestral graphs preserve signatures left behind when deeply divergent human lineages interbred. Such events create unusually long branches and distinctive genetic patterns that can persist in descendants for hundreds of thousands of years. By searching for those signatures, TRACE can identify archaic ancestry even when no reference genome exists.

To test the system, the researchers first ran extensive computer simulations modeling ancient human populations and known episodes of Neanderthal interbreeding. The method consistently revealed high accuracy while producing very low false-positive rates.

The team then applied TRACE to genomes from the 1000 Genomes Project, encompassing hundreds of individuals representing populations across Africa, Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.

The program successfully recovered well-established Neanderthal ancestry in Europeans and Asians, along with Denisovan ancestry concentrated primarily in Asian populations. More intriguing, however, was the discovery of an additional category of DNA that matched neither Neanderthals nor Denisovans.

TRACE identified between roughly 0.5 and 1.1 percent “ghost” ancestry across all modern populations examined. The genetic evidence suggests these segments originated from an unknown archaic human lineage that diverged from our ancestors roughly 830,000 years ago, before later contributing DNA to the ancestors of modern humans.

Perhaps most surprising was where that ancestry appeared.

Rather than being confined to African populations, as several earlier hypotheses proposed, the researchers found remarkably similar ghost ancestry in both Africans and non-Africans.

Most of the segments detected outside Africa were shared with African populations, suggesting the interbreeding event occurred before modern humans started dispersing across the globe roughly 50,000 to 70,000 years ago.

The findings point toward a previously unrecognized chapter of human evolution in which an unidentified human population mixed with the common ancestors of everyone alive today.

The researchers also explored where these ancient genetic fragments survive in the modern genome.

They found ghost ancestry spread across more than 70 percent of the accessible human genome, although it was far from evenly distributed. Some regions contained unusually high concentrations of ghost DNA, including genes involved in immune function and metabolism.

Even more unexpectedly, ghost ancestry persisted inside genomic regions previously believed to be largely devoid of archaic DNA.

These regions, known as “Neanderthal and Denisovan ancestry deserts,” have often been interpreted as places where natural selection eliminated archaic genetic variants because uniquely modern human versions proved advantageous.

The presence of ghost ancestry inside many of those same regions suggests the story may be more complicated. Rather than rejecting all archaic DNA equally, natural selection may have acted differently depending on which ancient human lineage contributed the genes.

The study also ventured even farther back in evolutionary time.

Focusing on genomes from Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and the Santa Cruz Islands, the researchers searched for evidence of “super-archaic” ancestry—genetic contributions from a lineage that diverged long before Neanderthals, Denisovans, and modern humans separated.

Previous studies had suggested Denisovans themselves may have inherited DNA from such an ancient population. TRACE now provides additional support for that hypothesis.

The team identified deeply divergent genetic segments embedded explicitly within Denisovan-derived DNA in Oceanian populations. Based on their analyses, those ancient lineages may have split from the ancestors of modern humans approximately 1.77 million years ago.

While the researchers stress this represents a conservative estimate of surviving super-archaic ancestry, the findings strengthen the idea that modern humans indirectly inherited DNA from a much older human lineage through Denisovan interbreeding.

The identity of both the ghost lineage and the super-archaic population remains unknown.

The ghost population may represent Middle Pleistocene human groups or African populations of Homo heidelbergensis that encountered the ancestors of modern humans before the Out-of-Africa migration. For the older super-archaic lineage, the researchers note that Homo erectus remains one plausible candidate given its estimated divergence time and broad geographic distribution.

Although the new method cannot yet identify specific fossil species, it provides researchers with an entirely new tool for investigating chapters of human evolution that may never yield recoverable ancient DNA.

Because DNA older than roughly one million years is extraordinarily unlikely to survive outside permanently frozen environments, computational approaches like TRACE are becoming increasingly important for reconstructing humanity’s deepest evolutionary history.

“We find evidence for at least one ghost introgression predating the OOA expansion that contributed ancestry to all present-day populations,” researchers write. “These results point to multiple layers of introgression—both direct and mediated through other archaic groups—shaping modern human genomes.”

The study, “Recovering signatures of archaic hominin introgression using ancestral recombination graphs,” was published in the journal Science.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

Beneath the seemingly unbroken canopy of the southwestern Amazon rainforest lies evidence of one of the largest monumental landscapes ever discovered in the ancient Americas.

According to new research published in Nature, what archaeologists once believed were scattered ceremonial sites are instead part of an enormous precolonial civilization that may have changed vast stretches of the Amazon nearly 2,000 years ago.

Using airborne LiDAR capable of penetrating forest cover, an international team of researchers says they have identified hundreds of previously unknown earthworks, estimating that more than 20,000, and perhaps as many as 30,000, remain spread across southwestern Amazonia.

The findings dramatically expand the known scale of the so-called Aquiry civilization and suggest that millions may have inhabited the region during its peak nearly 2,000 years ago, forcing a reconsideration of how densely populated and intensively managed the ancient Amazon may have been.

“We also propose that the total human population of the area in 100–300 AD was 1.25–3 million people,” researchers write. “If similar results are found elsewhere in Amazonia, the total precolonial population density and its effect on the current Amazonian soil and forest structure, biodiversity, and even some modeling of the global climate should be re-evaluated.”

The study represents one of the most ambitious archaeological surveys ever conducted in the Amazon. Researchers flew more than 2,700 miles across the forests of Brazil’s Acre and Amazonas states using airborne LiDAR, a laser-mapping technology able to see through gaps in the dense treetops to produce detailed maps of the landscape below. Those maps revealed hundreds of geometric earthworks that had remained hidden for centuries.

The newly discovered structures include squares, circles, rectangles, and multilateral enclosures connected by roads and clustered into monumental complexes.

Some feature ditches up to 43 feet wide and more than 16 feet deep, with towering earthen embankments rising alongside them. Although a handful of these earthworks had previously been identified in deforested areas using satellite imagery, LiDAR revealed that those earlier surveys had dramatically underestimated just how many remained obscured beneath the forest.

One of the study’s most striking findings was that LiDAR scanning uncovered roughly five times more earthworks than satellite imagery had detected across the same landscapes.

In one survey block, researchers had previously identified only 30 structures using conventional imagery. Meanwhile, LiDAR revealed 156. Assuming similar results across the wider region suggests that between roughly 24,000 and 30,000 earthworks may exist within the estimated boundaries of the Aquiry civilization.

Those numbers alone would rank the region among the most monument-rich archaeological landscapes in the world.

For decades, archaeologists have debated whether much of Amazonia could have maintained large, complex societies before European contact. Prevailing interpretations portrayed much of the rainforest as environmentally limiting, capable of sustaining only relatively small and dispersed populations. However, more recent discoveries, including ancient cities in Bolivia and Ecuador, have steadily challenged that assumption.

Now, these latest findings suggest the region may have supported an even larger and more sophisticated society than researchers once imagined.

Rather than representing isolated ceremonial sites scattered through an otherwise untouched forest, the researchers argue the earthworks belonged to a civilization extending about 71,000 square miles, representing about three times larger than previous estimates of the Aquiry cultural area.

Many of the geometric enclosures appear not to have been permanent settlements themselves. Instead, researchers believe they served as ceremonial, political, and public gathering places where dispersed communities periodically assembled.

Similar patterns of temporary gathering centers are known from the Inca Empire, where populations converged for rituals, governance, and communal events despite living across broad landscapes.

Constructing these massive earthworks would have demanded sophisticated planning, organized labor, mathematical knowledge, and long-term social coordination. According to the study, some of these ceremonial centers remained in use for nearly 1,500 years, indicating remarkable cultural continuity across generations.

Estimating how many people actually lived within this landscape presented a separate challenge.

Rather than simply multiplying earthworks by a fixed population estimate, the researchers combined several independent lines of evidence. They examined radiocarbon dates to determine how many sites were occupied simultaneously, compared the earthworks with later mound villages built in the same region, incorporated ethnographic information from Indigenous communities, and evaluated the labor required to construct and maintain the monumental enclosures.

Their study indicates the civilization reached its greatest extent between approximately A.D. 100 and 300. During that period, somewhere between one-quarter and roughly 60 percent of the known ceremonial centers may have been active simultaneously.

Assuming each ceremonial center served communities of roughly 300 people, the researchers estimate the region’s population reached between about 1.25 and 3 million people during its peak. After accounting for earthworks that LiDAR may have missed beneath dense forest, they conclude the total could have been as high as 3.8 million.

Those estimates substantially exceed many previous reconstructions of southwestern Amazonia and imply population densities rivaling or exceeding some later historical agricultural societies.

Equally significant is what these discoveries reveal about how ancient Amazonians altered their environment.

The study points to fertile soils rich in nutrients, evidence of extensive cultivation of maize, squash, manioc, beans, peanuts, sweet potatoes, and chili peppers, as well as widespread management of Brazil nut groves and numerous economically important palm species.

Rather than exhausting the rainforest, researchers contend these communities actively managed forests, soils, and waterways throughout centuries, creating ecological legacies that remain visible today in the composition and biodiversity of Amazonian forests.

Present-day ecological studies have increasingly shown that many Amazonian forests long regarded as pristine wilderness actually bear the imprint of thousands of years of Indigenous landscape management. If similar densities of monumental earthworks are identified elsewhere across Amazonia, researchers argue that assumptions about precolonial population sizes, biodiversity patterns, soil formation, and even climate models may need substantial revision.

The work additionally underscores the key role of LiDAR in modern archaeology. Over the past decade, the technology has revealed hidden Maya cities beneath Central American jungles, extensive urban complexes in the Bolivian Amazon, and extensive settlements in Ecuador’s Upano Valley.

Nevertheless, researchers caution that important questions remain unanswered. The southeastern limits of the Aquiry civilization are still poorly understood because large portions of Rondônia have yet to receive comparable archaeological investigation. Dense vegetation also continues to obscure portions of the landscape, meaning many earthworks almost certainly remain undiscovered even after LiDAR surveys.

“These ancient achievements constitute an important legacy that is still observable in the soil, and the composition and biodiversity of the contemporary tropical forest,” researchers write. “This legacy should be fully considered in future studies of Amazonia, including climate modeling and sustainable land-use planning.”

The recent study, “Over 20,000 precolonial earthworks in the Southwest Amazonia,” by Martti Pärssinen et al., appeared in Nature.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

For more than two millennia, astronomers have puzzled over a stellar mystery recorded by some of history’s greatest skywatchers. Hipparchus, Ptolemy, and the Persian astronomer al-Sufi—all separated by more than 1,000 years—each described Theta Eridani as one of the brightest stars in the night sky. Yet today, the previously celebrated star barely ranks among the more noticeable stars visible to the naked eye.

A new astronomical study published on arXiv suggests that those ancient observers may have unknowingly recorded an extraordinarily rare stellar event. The star system remained dramatically brighter than normal for roughly a millennium before fading back to its present appearance sometime between the 10th and 16th centuries.

If confirmed, the finding would be among the longest-lived stellar transients ever proposed, fusing modern astrophysics with historical astronomy to reconstruct an event spanning centuries rather than days or months.

The study combines historical star catalogs with state-of-the-art observations from the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI), high-definition spectroscopy, and NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS).

Together, those observations allowed the researchers to reconstruct the architecture and evolutionary state of the Theta Eridani system and to propose a physical mechanism that could explain its mysterious ancient brilliance.

“The remarkable combination of orbital and stellar parameters hints that the historical brightening of Theta Eridani was due to a millenary transient phase,” researchers write. “This strengthens the case that the apparent brightening was real and not due to an error by three different ancient observers, as has been commonly claimed in the past.”

Today, Theta Eridani, also known by its traditional name Acamar, shines at approximately magnitude 2.9, making it a respectable but hardly spectacular star marking the end of the constellation Eridanus. Yet ancient records tell a very different story.

Hipparchus described it as an exceptionally bright star around 129 BC. Roughly 250 years later, Ptolemy ranked it among only fifteen first-magnitude stars in the Almagest, effectively placing it among the thirteen brightest stars visible in the night sky.

More than 800 years afterward, the Persian astronomer al-Sufi independently retained that same first-magnitude classification while revising the brightness estimates of many other stars toward values that closely match modern observations.

The sharp contrast between the historical accounts and Theta Eridani’s modest appearance today has made the star one of astronomy’s most enduring and compelling mysteries.

Researchers examined long-standing alternative explanations, including simple observational mistakes, copyist errors in ancient manuscripts, confusion with the much brighter star Achernar farther south, and even errors caused by atmospheric extinction near the horizon. One by one, they argue the evidence weighs against those explanations.

Theta Eridani would not even have been visible to the Greek and Arab astronomers because of Earth’s changing orientation over time. Likewise, statistical analyses of nearly 1,000 stars contained in the Almagest show that Theta Eridani represents the single largest discrepancy between ancient and modern brightness estimates, rather than part of a wider systematic mistake.

The historical trail eventually changes around the dawn of the Age of Exploration. By the late 1500s and early 1600s, after European navigators began mapping the southern skies, star catalogs consistently described Theta Eridani as only a third-magnitude star—essentially the same brightness observed today.

That suggests the bright phase had already ended.

To investigate whether Theta Eridani itself could plausibly have undergone such a transformation, the team turned to modern astronomical observations.

Rather than a single star, Theta Eridani consists of three stars. The primary component itself is a remarkably tight binary whose two stars orbit one another every 4.1077 days at a separation of just 0.083 astronomical units—roughly one-fifth the distance between Mercury and the Sun.

Using interferometric measurements from the VLTI, together with spectroscopy and precision photometry from TESS, the researchers determined that the two stars each contain just over twice the Sun’s mass and have swollen to approximately 4.3 and 4.0 solar radii.

Those enlarged sizes are significant because both stars have expanded to nearly 80 percent of the volume where gravity from one star begins pulling material toward the other, a region around a star in a binary system known as the Roche lobes. The close gravitational interaction also produces measurable ellipsoidal distortions that TESS detects as subtle, rhythmic brightness variations every orbit.

Researchers’ evolutionary modeling further revealed that the primary star occupies an unusually brief stage within stellar evolution, having only recently exhausted hydrogen in its core and begun transitioning into a subgiant. That evolutionary timing may be critical.

According to the researchers, Theta Eridani may once have possessed a much more elongated orbit. As the primary expanded, it could have begun overflowing its Roche lobe during each close approach, transferring material toward its companion and possibly generating an extended common envelope surrounding both stars.

Unlike the violent stellar explosions astronomers typically classify as transients, this proposed event would have evolved extraordinarily slowly. Instead of lasting weeks or years, the researchers suggest the envelope may have persisted for roughly a thousand years while gradually extracting orbital energy from the binary.

Because the surrounding envelope would have remained optically thick, it could have radiated from an area far larger than either star individually, making the entire system appear nearly ten times brighter than it does today.

Researchers’ calculations suggest that such an envelope could have reached roughly 20 times the Sun’s radius while needing only a tiny amount of encircling material, because that material would be continually replenished and slowly ejected over hundreds of thousands of orbits.

Importantly, researchers stress that this is still a proposed physical explanation rather than a demonstrated one. Modeling the detailed hydrodynamics of eccentric mass transfer and long-lived common envelopes remains beyond the scope of the current work.

Nevertheless, they argue that the unusual combination of orbital geometry, stellar evolution, and historical observations makes the scenario physically plausible.

The study of Theta Eridani also raises wider implications for time-based astronomy.

Modern astronomical surveys are exceptionally good at finding dramatic events that unfold over minutes, days, or years. A stellar brightening lasting centuries, or even a millennium, would be almost impossible to recognize within a human lifetime. Researchers suggest there may be other long-duration stellar transients hidden among ordinary-looking stars whose histories have been forgotten.

If their interpretation proves correct, some of humanity’s earliest astronomers may have unknowingly documented one of the most unusual stellar phenomena ever proposed—not an exploding star, but a binary system trapped in an exceptionally slow evolutionary episode which lit up the night sky for generations before quietly receding into obscurity.

“Although modern photometric surveys have had an observational coverage of a few years to a few decades rather than two millennia like Theta Eridani, they are sensitive to objects up to 14 magnitudes fainter than the naked eye limit,” researchers write. “Therefore, there could be unexplored or unexplained Theta Eridani-like transients that either brightened or faded in current data.”

The team’s new study, The Forgotten Bright Star: Theta Eridani as a Millenary Stellar Transient Observed by Hipparchus, Ptolemy and al-Sufi, is currently available on the arXiv.org preprint server.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

For decades, Washington has assumed that military aid translates into political influence. If the United States provides the weapons, intelligence, training, and diplomatic backing that keep an ally fighting, conventional wisdom suggests it should also have considerable leverage over when, and how, that war ends.

Yet, a sweeping new analysis published by the Brookings Institution and authored by Dr. Dafna Rand, a senior fellow at Brookings, the Federation for American Scientists, and the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the opposite has increasingly become true.

Whether in Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, or Afghanistan, the U.S. has repeatedly discovered that sustaining an ally’s war effort is often far easier than steering its ultimate direction. Instead of conclusive victories followed by lasting peace, modern conflicts are increasingly settling into drawn-out stalemates, frozen conflicts, or recurring cycles of violence that resist outside pressure—even from Washington.

Dr. Rand’s report examines one of the defining strategic dilemmas confronting American foreign policy in the 21st century: why the world’s most powerful military and diplomatic actor has struggled to shape the decisions of partners whose war efforts depend heavily on U.S. support.

Drawing on more than 30 interviews with senior American officials involved in decision-making throughout four major conflicts, alongside hundreds of government documents, the analysis shows recurring patterns that appear independent of geography or the adversary involved.

“Wars, whether between or within states, are not ending in the 21st century,” Dr. Rand writes. “Frozen conflicts, on-again-off-again fighting, and stalemates have become the norm.”

Dr. Rand argues that this changing nature of warfare has profoundly changed the assumptions underpinning American security strategy.

Following the costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington increasingly shifted toward supporting partners rather than committing large numbers of U.S. troops directly to combat. The expectation was that supplying allies with military assistance would provide the United States with considerable influence over battlefield strategy and political consequences.

Instead, Dr. Rand says that American leverage consistently diminishes as conflicts drag on.

One of the study’s central conclusions is that Washington and its partners frequently begin wars without agreeing on what victory actually means. At the outset of each conflict examined—including Ukraine’s defense against Russia, Israel’s campaign against Hamas, the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, and America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan—American and partner governments shared broad objectives, though often failed to establish detailed political end states.

That omission, Dr. Rand argues, becomes increasingly costly as wars continue.

Early battlefield success frequently encourages partners to pursue more ambitious goals than originally envisioned. At the same time, Washington gradually becomes more interested in negotiated settlements as financial costs mount, domestic political support declines, and wider strategic priorities begin competing for attention.

According to Dr. Rand, many officials interviewed expressed regret that these conversations about political objectives, postwar governance, and acceptable settlement terms did not occur before military campaigns gained momentum.

The report also highlights an uncomfortable reality of modern alliances. Although the United States provides enormous military assistance, it does not exercise command over allied governments or their armed forces. As a result, disagreements naturally emerge over strategy, operational design, and acceptable risks.

Ukraine provides one of the clearest examples. Initially, Washington and Kyiv shared an overriding objective of preventing Russia from conquering the country. However, over time, American officials became increasingly divided over whether continued fighting or eventual negotiations better served long-term U.S. interests.

Some officials viewed prolonging the conflict as strategically beneficial because it weakened Russia’s military while strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Others believed diplomatic attempts should have begun earlier, particularly after Ukraine’s battlefield gains in 2022 created what they viewed as an opportunity to negotiate from a stronger position.

Dr. Rand notes that internal disagreements within the U.S. government complicated communication with Ukrainian leaders, in particular regarding expectations for territorial objectives and the role military offensives were intended to play in eventually creating conditions for diplomacy.

The Gaza conflict exposed a different, but related, collection of challenges.

Following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks, President Joe Biden’s administration moved rapidly to reassure Israel of unshakable American support while simultaneously urging restraint based on lessons learned from America’s own post-9/11 military campaigns.

Dr. Rand concludes that Israeli leaders largely heard the reassurances while failing to fully internalize Washington’s accompanying warnings about civilian casualties, operational design, and the long-term strategic consequences of an extended campaign.

As the war progressed, American officials increasingly concluded that humanitarian concerns and mounting civilian casualties were not exclusively moral issues but strategic ones as well, arguing that prolonged destruction could ultimately strengthen Hamas’ long-term recruitment and undermine Israel’s own security objectives.

Despite this growing divergence, the report suggests Washington hesitated to use its available leverage aggressively, partly because of domestic political sensitivities surrounding support for Israel.

Another recurring finding centers on American public opinion.

Support for allies often begins overwhelmingly strong immediately after major attacks or invasions. But that support steadily erodes as wars lengthen, casualties mount, humanitarian problems increase, or questions come up regarding the conduct of partner governments.

Dr. Rand says this pattern appears across Yemen, Afghanistan, Gaza, and, increasingly, Ukraine.

Importantly, she argues this erosion can occur even when Americans continue believing the underlying cause remains just. Instead, fatigue over prolonged commitments, concerns about costs, or doubts regarding the likelihood of decisive success gradually reshape political calculations in Washington.

Those changing domestic dynamics, in turn, reduce America’s leverage abroad.

Once congressional debates begin questioning military assistance or public enthusiasm declines, allied governments recognize that Washington’s ability to maintain long-term support has become less certain.

Dr. Rand argues this weakens American bargaining power precisely when policymakers most need it.

Among the study’s most significant recommendations is that future administrations should treat leverage as a rapidly diminishing resource.

Rather than assuming influence will expand alongside continued military assistance, Dr. Rand contends the opposite usually occurs. The strongest opportunity to shape an ally’s political objectives exists during the opening weeks of conflict, before battlefield realities, domestic politics, and diverging national interests begin pulling partners in different directions.

To address this, the report proposes forming formal “security contracts,” or a memorandum of understanding, early in future conflicts that clearly define shared political objectives, expected end states, standards for humanitarian conduct, and mechanisms for periodically reassessing strategy.

Dr. Rand also recommends keeping consistent communication across the entire U.S. national security apparatus, warning that mixed signals from different agencies make it easier for partners to ignore American advice or exploit disagreements inside Washington.

Perhaps most notably, the report argues that future administrations should not focus solely on influencing allies. Even in conflicts involving close partners, Washington should simultaneously pursue diplomatic means with adversaries whenever possible, recognizing that negotiated settlements often require engaging both sides rather than relying exclusively on pressure directed at friendly governments.

Ultimately, the analysis shows that the challenge confronting U.S. policymakers goes beyond any single conflict. As interstate wars, civil wars, and proxy wars become increasingly protracted, America’s ability to translate military assistance into political influence may continue shrinking unless it fundamentally rethinks how partnerships are managed from the very beginning of a war.

“The United States must be brutally honest with its partners,” Dr. Rand writes. “The United States must recognize that pressuring its partners to end wars will get harder, not easier, as time passes and the partner grows better able to resist U.S. pressure.”

Study: Dr. Dafna H. Rand, Why can’t the United States end allies’ wars?, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy at Brookings (2026).

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

When NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft delivered pristine samples from the asteroid Bennu back to Earth in 2023, scientists knew they were receiving one of the most chemically untouched collections of material ever recovered from the Solar System.

Since then, the returned grains have steadily transformed researchers’ understanding of how asteroids formed, how water altered primitive worlds, and even how the ingredients for life may have spread through the early Solar System.

Now, a new study, published in Nature Communications, has uncovered another surprise hidden inside those microscopic particles. Embedded within Bennu are tiny mineral fragments that formed during the Solar System’s earliest moments—less than 100,000 years after its birth—and they may reveal that the asteroid’s ancient parent body formed much farther from the Sun than scientists once suspected.

The research suggests that Bennu inherited some of the oldest surviving solids ever created, while simultaneously preserving evidence that Jupiter’s formation may have acted as an enormous cosmic filter, separating different populations of dust before planets had even fully formed.

“Our observations of phyllosilicates replacing olivine and interstitial phyllosilicates between olivine grains within AOAs… collectively indicate that these refractory inclusions experienced aqueous alteration on Bennu’s parent planetesimal,” researchers write. “Therefore, they were incorporated into the parent planetesimal before the onset of aqueous alteration, during which phyllosilicates and magnetite formed.”

“These mineralogical, isotopic, and chronological similarities among refractory inclusions in Bennu samples, Ryugu samples, and CI chondrites provide evidence that their parent planetesimal(s) accreted a common suite, and likely similar relative abundances, of high-temperature refractory inclusions and their fragments,” researchers write.

The research concentrates on “refractory inclusions”—tiny mineral-rich objects known as calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) and amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs). These objects are widely considered the oldest solid materials to condense from the hot gas surrounding the newborn Sun.

Long before planets existed, the infant Solar System consisted of a rotating disk of gas coupled with dust known as the protoplanetary disk. Temperatures near the young Sun exceeded 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit (roughly 1,100 degrees Celsius), allowing only the most heat-resistant minerals to crystallize.

These refractory inclusions were among the very first solids to emerge from that environment before eventually being transported throughout the growing Solar System.

Although scientists have found such inclusions in meteorites for decades, Bennu offered an unprecedented opportunity to examine them in material collected directly from an asteroid rather than from meteorites that survived passage through Earth’s atmosphere.

To investigate, researchers analyzed polished sections prepared from 12 Bennu particles using scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, oxygen isotope measurements, and radioactive aluminum-magnesium dating techniques.

The team identified six amoeboid olivine aggregates and three calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions, all remarkably small—none exceeding roughly 100 micrometers across, or about the thickness of a human hair. This turned out to be one of the study’s most important discoveries.

The mineral chemistry and oxygen isotopes showed these inclusions formed in an extremely hot, oxygen-16-rich environment during the Solar System’s earliest stages. Radioactive dating using aluminum-26 indicated at least one inclusion formed essentially at the very beginning of Solar System history, within roughly the first 100,000 years after the earliest known solids condensed.

In other words, Bennu contains fragments that have survived for approximately 4.567 billion years with surprisingly little alteration. Yet, those ancient relics also preserve evidence that they later encountered liquid water.

Several inclusions show minerals partially replaced by phyllosilicates—water-bearing clay minerals—while magnetite and other alteration products reveal that water once circulated through Bennu’s ancient parent body after these primordial objects had already become incorporated into it.

For scientists, that sequence helps establish a timeline. First, the earliest high-temperature solids formed close to the newborn Sun. Later, they were transported outward through the protoplanetary disk. Only after they became part of Bennu’s larger parent asteroid did liquid water alter portions of the rock.

Researchers found distinct similarities between Bennu’s inclusions and those previously identified in samples returned from Japan’s Hayabusa2 mission to asteroid Ryugu, as well as in rare CI carbonaceous chondrite meteorites found on Earth.

The oxygen isotopes, crystal chemistry, and formation ages all closely match, suggesting these seemingly distant objects inherited material from the same population of ancient Solar System building blocks.

That mutual heritage points toward a surprisingly interconnected early Solar System, where material formed close to the Sun was efficiently transported across enormous distances before eventually becoming incorporated into multiple asteroid populations.

However,  the absence of something proved just as revealing as what scientists found.

Unlike many carbonaceous meteorites, Bennu contains no large refractory inclusions larger than about one-tenth of a millimeter. Other meteorites frequently preserve inclusions ranging from submillimeter sizes up to several centimeters across.

According to the researchers, the missing population may reflect the increasing influence of the Solar System’s first giant planet.

As proto-Jupiter accumulated mass, its gravity likely created a pressure bump within the gas disk encircling the young Sun. Such pressure bumps act as natural traffic jams for dust, trapping larger particles while allowing much smaller grains to continue drifting through the disk.

Under this scenario, larger refractory inclusions became concentrated closer to Jupiter’s orbit. At the same time, only the smallest particles were able to migrate farther outward into the distant regions where Bennu’s parent body eventually formed.

If correct, Bennu’s microscopic inclusions effectively record the influence of Jupiter before the giant planet had even fully matured.

The hypothesis also helps explain why Bennu, Ryugu, and CI meteorites all possess nearly identical populations of tiny refractory inclusions while lacking the larger varieties commonly found elsewhere.

Rather than showing different source materials, the distinction may instead reflect where—and perhaps when—their parent bodies assembled within the developing protoplanetary disk.

The findings similarly reinforce earlier studies suggesting Bennu is among the Solar System’s most chemically primitive objects. Because large refractory inclusions contain unusually high concentrations of certain elements, their absence helps preserve Bennu’s overall composition close to that of the earliest solar nebula from which the planets formed.

That makes the asteroid an unusually valuable time capsule. Every new microscopic grain examined inside the OSIRIS-REx collection provides another insight into processes that occurred billions of years before Earth existed as a habitable world.

Rather than simply representing rubble from a small asteroid, Bennu appears to preserve a remarkably faithful record of how the Solar System sorted, mixed, transported, and assembled its earliest building materials.

The study also demonstrates why sample-return missions have grown increasingly important to planetary science. Laboratory instruments on Earth can perform measurements impossible for spacecraft operating millions of miles away, letting researchers reconstruct events that occurred within the Solar System’s first fractions of a million years.

“We conclude that Bennu’s parent planetesimal, like those of Ryugu and CI chondrites, accreted small refractory inclusions that persisted in the outer Solar System beyond the influence of the proto-Jupiter-induced pressure bump,” researchers write. “Taken together, these findings highlight the need to integrate Bennu samples into comparative studies of early Solar System solids to better constrain the diversity and possible genetic links among planetesimal formation pathways,” researchers write.

The study, “Refractory inclusions in Bennu samples indicative of outer Solar System accretion,” appeared in Nature Communications.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

For more than a century, two enormous structures cutting across the desert southwest of Egypt’s famous Red Pyramid have been assumed to be ancient transport features—perhaps roads or ramps used to haul limestone blocks during pyramid construction. However,  a new study argues that archaeologists may have been looking at the wrong answer all along.

Instead of transportation infrastructure, researchers now suggest the mysterious earthworks could represent a nearly 4,600-year-old sophisticated hydraulic engineering system, with two giant dams built to capture, regulate, and redirect water through the desert landscape.

If confirmed, the discovery would dramatically revise our understanding of how the builders of Egypt’s pyramids engineered not only stone, but water itself.

The new research, published in Nature Heritage Science, combines satellite imagery, historical maps, digital elevation modeling, watershed analysis, and paleoclimate data to reexamine the little-studied features at Dahshur, the royal necropolis where Pharaoh Snefru built both the Bent Pyramid and the Red Pyramid.

While no excavation has yet confirmed the interpretation, researchers argue that the structures display multiple characteristics far more consistent with dams than with construction ramps.

“This study presents, for the first time, evidence of two ancient, giant dams built across Wadi Dahshur, Egypt, along with a water diversion channel west of the Red Pyramid,” researchers write. “Satellite imagery and watershed mapping show that the two long structures, previously interpreted as stone transport ramps, exhibit the technical signature of dams, each extending 600–700 m and anchored to the valley flanks.”

The findings add a fascinating new chapter to one of archaeology’s enduring mysteries. How did ancient Egyptians organize the enormous logistical operation required to construct the pyramids during the Fourth Dynasty?

The Red Pyramid, completed around 2600 BCE during Snefru’s reign, is widely recognized as Egypt’s first successful “true” pyramid. Scientists have spent decades studying the monument itself. However, much less attention has been devoted to the surrounding landscape and the engineering systems that may have supported its construction.

According to researchers, the wider landscape may have been far more technologically sophisticated than previously appreciated.

The two massive structures stretch approximately 2,000 to 2,300 feet (600 to 700 meters) across Wadi Dahshur. Earlier researchers interpreted one as a transport route leading from nearby quarries while considering the other a natural rise in the terrain. However, the new analysis points to several features that appear difficult to reconcile with those interpretations.

Rather than following the valley, both structures run directly across it, anchoring into the surrounding hillsides much like embankment dams. One also contains a distinctive zigzag geometry that the researchers argue resembles a duckbill spillway—a specialized overflow design still used in modern hydraulic engineering because it can safely release significantly larger volumes of water than a straight spillway of the same width.

No securely identified duckbill-style spillway has previously been documented from ancient Egypt. So if that interpretation is correct, it would mean that the Dahshur structure is one of the earliest known examples of this type of hydraulic design anywhere in the world.

Researchers believe the two structures may have functioned together as a multi-stage flood-control system.

In their proposed scenario, one dam traps sediment carried by flash floods while allowing cleaner water to pass into a second reservoir. From there, water could have been diverted through an artificial channel running remarkably close to the western side of the Red Pyramid before reconnecting with the surrounding drainage network.

That canal is especially intriguing because it raises the possibility that water may have played a more direct role in pyramid construction than traditionally assumed.

Researchers have long known that the ancient Egyptians exploited waterways for transporting heavy stone. Previous discoveries at Giza revealed harbor basins and canals associated with pyramid construction, while papyrus records from Wadi el-Jarf describe crews transporting limestone by boat during Khufu’s reign.

The newly proposed Dahshur canal could represent another piece of that larger hydraulic network.

If maintained at a stable water level, it could have assisted in transporting heavy materials on barges or water-assisted sleds over relatively flat ground. Even beyond transportation, the water could have supported workers, supplied construction areas, mixed mortar, reduced dust, and later been adapted for irrigation or ceremonial uses.

The hypothesis also depends on a very different view of Egypt’s climate nearly 4,600 years ago.

Today, the Dahshur plateau lies within an extremely arid landscape, making the idea of dams initially seem ridiculous. However, paleoclimate evidence reviewed by the researchers suggests northern Egypt during the Old Kingdom was considerably wetter than it is today.

Although the Sahara was already drying following the end of the African Humid Period, seasonal rainfall appears to have remained substantially higher than modern levels. Even infrequent storms could have produced powerful flash floods racing through normally dry wadis.

The study estimates that while average annual rainfall may have ranged between roughly 2 to 6 inches (50 to 150 millimeters), individual storm events could generate enough runoff to create destructive floodwaters requiring engineered control systems. Rather than depending solely on the annual Nile inundation, Egyptian engineers may also have exploited seasonal runoff flowing through desert valleys.

That broader perspective fits with growing evidence that water management extended well beyond the Nile floodplain itself.

Other nearby examples showing evidence of water management well beyond the Nile floodplain include the famous Sadd el-Kafara dam, located less than 12 miles (20 kilometers) east of Dahshur, which is generally regarded as one of the world’s oldest large dams.

Additional archaeological sites around Saqqara and Giza likewise show increasing evidence of canals, flood-control structures, and carefully engineered landscapes associated with pyramid construction.

Even so, the researchers stress that their interpretation is still a hypothesis awaiting archaeological confirmation.

The structures themselves have never been excavated. Much of the area lies within a military zone, limiting direct access, while centuries of windblown sand have buried much of the earliest construction. Modern roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure have also altered parts of the site, making efforts to reconstruct its original appearance more difficult.

Future excavations will therefore be critical. Researchers hope sediment studies could determine whether deposits behind the structures resulted from flowing water rather than drifting desert sand.

Excavations may also reveal construction techniques, protective stonework, spillway features, and datable material capable of establishing whether the structures truly belong to Snefru’s era.

If those investigations support the new interpretation, they would suggest that Old Kingdom engineers possessed a much wider understanding of landscape-scale hydraulic engineering than previously identified.

More intriguing, the study hints that similar forgotten infrastructure could still lie covered beneath Egypt’s deserts, disguised as ordinary landscape features or misidentified for generations.

“Nevertheless, the convergence of geomorphological evidence, watershed connectivity, hydraulic plausibility, and regional cultural context supports the interpretation of the Dahshur structures as intentional large-scale hydraulic installations rather than incidental landscape features,” researchers write. “Other hydraulic structures are most probably lost in the desert, waiting to be identified as such.”

The recent study, “Two possible ancient dams near the Red Pyramid on the Dashur Plateau, Egypt,” by Xavier Landreau, Guillaume Piton, and Sayed Hemeda, appeared in npj Heritage Science. 

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

More than 2,200 years Hannibal launched one of recorded history’s most daring military campaigns, leading roughly 46,000 soldiers and 37 war elephants across the towering Alps between modern-day France and Italy to invade the Roman Republic. Now, researchers believe they may have uncovered a surprising clue to one of antiquity’s greatest military mysteries.

For generations, historians have debated exactly which Alpine pass Hannibal used during his legendary crossing in 218 BC before descending into Italy and launching a campaign that brought Rome to the brink of defeat during the Second Punic War.

Any equally enduring mystery has been why the legendary Carthaginian general would burden his army with 37 war elephants, each weighing roughly three tons (about 6,600 pounds), while attempting one of the most difficult mountain crossings in military history?

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests those two mysteries may actually be connected.

Rather than relying entirely on ancient accounts, particularly those of the Greek historian Polybius, or on geology and topography, researchers analyzed the energy required for Hannibal’s soldiers, horses, and elephants to traverse four leading candidate routes through the Alps.

Their findings show that the notoriously difficult Col de la Traversette was actually the most energy-efficient crossing—and that the elephants, far from being a crippling liability, may have been better suited for the journey as opposed to either the soldiers or the horses accompanying them.

The discovery provides a new perspective on one of history’s greatest military feats, suggesting that the biological limits of both humans and animals may help explain not only where Hannibal crossed the Alps, but why he believed his extraordinary gamble could succeed.

“Our analysis of the energy landscape challenging the army suggests that the Col de la Traversette would have been the shortest and energetically most efficient route,” researchers write. “In which case, driven by the aim to minimize the energy costs of the crossing, he would have chosen the Traversette route.”

Hannibal’s campaign remains one of history’s most astonishing logistical achievements. After marching roughly 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) from Spain, his force reached the Alps with approximately 46,000 soldiers and 37 war elephants.

The crossing reportedly took just 15 days despite hostile tribes, steep mountain passes, early winter conditions, and severe supply challenges. Only about half of the army survived the journey, although enough elephants reached Italy to participate in the Battle of the Trebia shortly afterward.

Researchers examined four leading candidate routes through the Alps by estimating the total energy required for each member of Hannibal’s expedition, including the soldiers, horses, and elephants accompanying them.

Rather than asking which mountain pass best matches ancient historical accounts, the researchers examined four leading candidate routes through the Alps, calculating the energy required for every member of Hannibal’s expedition—including his soldiers, horses, and war elephants.

Using models that consider elevation changes and the metabolic costs of climbing and descending, they calculated the total energy expenditure for men, horses, and elephants across each candidate route. The results consistently favored the Col de la Traversette.

The researchers estimate the entire army would have expended approximately 5.42 terajoules of energy along that route. By comparison, taking the Col du Clapier—long considered by many historians to be the strongest candidate—would have required roughly 16% more energy.

Even the second-best alternative would have demanded 11% more. A chart in the paper compares the cumulative energy costs of each route, showing the Traversette path retaining the lowest overall expenditure despite its dramatic elevation profile.

Although Hannibal obviously lacked modern mathematical models, the researchers suggest he likely had an instinctive insight into terrain developed through years of campaigning.

“Although Hannibal would not have had such accurate estimates, he may have had a qualitative understanding of the ranking of the possible routes,” researchers note.  

Perhaps the study’s most fascinating insights concern the elephants themselves.

Modern elephants require enormous quantities of food simply to maintain their body weight. Wild African elephants typically spend around 14 hours each day feeding, while a three-ton adult may consume roughly 440 pounds (200 kilos) of forage daily. Those requirements become even more daunting in mountainous terrain, where every climb increases energy demands.

The researchers estimate that each elephant would have expended an additional 1.53 gigajoules of energy simply from traversing the Col de la Traversette beyond its normal metabolic requirements. Replacing that energy through feeding alone would have required roughly five to six extra hours of foraging every day during the crossing.

That simply was not realistic.

Instead, the team concludes that Hannibal’s elephants almost certainly survived by drawing heavily on stored body fat rather than replacing the calories they were burning. Even then, the elephants appear to have been surprisingly well-suited for the journey.

According to the analysis, each elephant would have lost only about 4% of its body fat reserves during the Traversee crossing. Horses, by contrast, were estimated to lose around 11%, while surviving soldiers may have lost approximately 19% of their stored fat. Even on less efficient routes, the additional burden fell disproportionately on the men and horses rather than the elephants.

That finding helps explain an apparent historical paradox.

For generations, historians have wondered why Hannibal would risk bringing massive elephants across one of Europe’s most formidable mountain ranges. This new study argues that, biologically, elephants may actually have handled the journey better than many of the humans accompanying them.

Modern biomechanical research has shown that elephants move like a four-wheel-drive vehicle, enabling them to navigate difficult terrain more effectively than many might expect. Their large fat reserves also provided an energy buffer unavailable to exhausted soldiers.

“We may assume that Hannibal knew, after having traveled with elephants and their handlers through Spain and Southern France, that his elephants would struggle less than his men to make the crossing,” researchers note.

Researchers argue that the greatest challenge facing Carthage’s war elephants came after they crossed the Alps, not during the journey itself.

Once in Italy, Hannibal found himself deep inside enemy territory with no secure supply lines, making it extraordinarily difficult to replenish the elephants’ depleted energy reserves. Historical evidence suggests his army was forced to raid the surrounding countryside extensively to feed both its soldiers and animals.

Although the elephants survived the Alpine crossing, researchers say the enormous logistical burden of keeping them fed may have ultimately sealed their fate.

“The fact that all but one elephant died in the following winter might be indicative of Hannibal’s decision to stop attending to the energy needs of such costly pieces of military equipment when already under severe energetic constraints,” the researchers write.

The researchers suggest the elephants’ greatest value may have reached beyond their battlefield role. Simply bringing dozens of war elephants across the Alps would have delivered a powerful psychological advantage, both by surprising Roman forces and by demonstrating the extraordinary reach of Hannibal’s army.

But that advantage may have been short-lived. Once the initial shock passed, the enormous cost of feeding and upkeep of the animals deep inside enemy territory may have exceeded their military usefulness.

Taken together, the evidence suggests that the same biological realities that influenced Hannibal’s choice of route may also have determined the fate of his most famous weapons.

“Perhaps he counted on the elephants to provide an important, tactical element of surprise in the first battles against the Romans,” the researchers write. “In addition, he may have expected that his war elephants would awe and help recruit to his side the Celts of Northern Italy, who were known to be hostile to Rome.”

“After these first encounters, the elephants might have lost their military value,” the team adds.  

The paper, “Energy costs of Hannibal’s alpine crossing,” by Emilio Bertia and Fritz Vollrath, appeared in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

For decades, paleoanthropologists have largely agreed that somewhere along the evolutionary course from apelike ancestors to modern humans, our bodies got dramatically larger. However, one lingering mystery has been when this intense growth began.

Did our ancestors gradually grow bigger over millions of years? Did the shift coincide with the emergence of the genus Homo? Or did it occur later, after some of the earliest human species had already appeared?

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) argues that the answer is more complex than any single theory has suggested.

Rather than supporting a single long-standing hypothesis, researchers used a sophisticated statistical method to show that human body size likely followed two evolutionary courses simultaneously: a slow, steady increase spanning millions of years, punctuated by a much larger leap in later members of the genus Homo.

The findings help reconcile decades of conflicting research while offering one of the clearest pictures yet of how, and perhaps why, our ancestors evolved into larger-bodied humans.

“Despite its central role in hominin evolution, there is little consensus on how body size increased through time,” researchers write. “We provide strong evidence for a marked size increase in later-occurring Homo, alongside a moderate general increase over time among all hominins.”

Body size is one of the defining characteristics of an organism. In humans and our extinct relatives, it has been linked to everything from brain expansion and walking efficiency to metabolism, hunting behavior, and the ability to travel across increasingly large landscapes. Understanding when body size changed, therefore, helps researchers reconstruct not only what our ancestors looked like, but how they lived.

Yet despite decades of fossil findings, scientists have struggled to agree on the evolutionary pattern behind those changes.

Some previous studies suggested that hominins simply became larger over time. Some contended that body size remained relatively stable until the emergence of Homo. Still others have proposed that the real transformation arose only after early species such as Homo habilis, often regarded as one of the first members of our genus.

According to researchers, one reason for the disagreement is that earlier analyses typically examined these competing ideas independently. They also often failed to account for uncertainties inherent in the fossil record, including disagreements over species classification, differences in body mass estimation methods, and uncertainties in evolutionary relationships among fossil species.

To address those limitations, researchers compiled one of the largest hominin body-size datasets assembled to date, incorporating body mass assessments from 386 fossil specimens representing 21 different taxa.

They then analyzed the data using Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models—a statistical approach that accounts for evolutionary relationships while encompassing multiple layers of uncertainty.

The team repeated its analyses across 1,000 different phylogenetic trees and 1,000 separate datasets, allowing them to test whether the overall pattern remained consistent despite uncertainties.

The results pointed to two simultaneous trends.

The first was a modest but persistent increase in body size across the hominin family as a whole. On average, body mass increased by roughly 2 pounds (0.9 kilograms) every million years, suggesting that larger bodies gradually became more common throughout human evolution.

However, the second trend proved far more dramatic.

Instead of all members of Homo becoming substantially larger, the researchers found the strongest evidence for a distinct jump in body size among later members of the genus, particularly species that appeared after Homo habilis. That pattern regularly emerged regardless of how the fossil data were analyzed.

In other words, early members of Homo may not have represented the major biological turning point scientists once assumed.

This finding disputes a common assumption that simply belonging to the genus Homo meant possessing a significantly larger body. Instead, the study suggests that some hallmark features traditionally associated with humans, including larger body size, may have evolved after the genus’s origin.

That interpretation also corresponds to broader changes that occurred later in human evolution.

Researchers note that this period coincides with evidence for more efficient upright walking, greater reliance on meat consumption, and expanding home ranges. Larger bodies may have been both a consequence of and a contributor to those behavioral and ecological shifts.

The study likewise reinforces another growing theme that evolution rarely follows a straight line.

Species such as Homo floresiensis, often nicknamed the “Hobbit” because of its diminutive stature, and Homo Naledi frequently appeared as outliers with unusually small body sizes despite belonging to relatively recent branches of the human family tree. Their existence demonstrates that body size did not simply increase in a uniform march toward modern humans.

Instead, evolution repeatedly experimented with different solutions depending on local environments and ecological constraints.

The researchers also argue that part of the longstanding disagreement over body-size evolution stems from the fossil record itself. Different studies have estimated fossil body masses using different skeletal elements, comparison populations, and statistical techniques, sometimes producing substantially different results for the same individual.

By expressly incorporating those uncertainties into their analysis, rather than treating them as fixed values, the new framework seeks to capture the range of plausible evolutionary scenarios rather than relying on a single interpretation.

Even so, researchers caution that important questions remain unresolved.

Improved fossil discoveries, more accurate body-mass estimation methods, and a better understanding of species relationships could all further refine the picture. The study also does not explicitly account for sexual size differences between males and females, which may have been greater in some early hominin species than in modern humans.

Nevertheless, the wider conclusion is intriguing.

Rather than choosing between competing theories, the evidence suggests both contain elements of the truth.

Body size did increase gradually across the hominin lineage. But the most considerable leap appears to have occurred later, after the earliest representatives of Homo had already evolved.

That conclusion may help settle one of paleoanthropology’s longest-running debates while showing how advances in statistical methods are transforming scientists’ ability to extract new insights from fossils that have often been studied for decades.

“Overall, these findings bring clarity to a fundamental question in human evolution and show how the application of rigorous phylogenetic comparative tools can unlock patterns previously hidden in the fossil record while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty,” researchers write. “By reconciling conflicting findings within a single framework, our results clarify key evolutionary transitions and highlight the complex nature of body size change in human evolution.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

The future of military artificial intelligence may not be a single all-knowing machine directing a battlefield from a distant command center. Instead, DARPA is preparing to explore enormous collectives of AI agents capable of organizing themselves, dividing up missions, adapting to chaos, and continuing to operate even when some members of the group fail, disappear, or go rogue.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has formally launched a new effort called Decentralized Artificial Intelligence by Controlled Emergence, or DICE, aimed at developing AI collectives that can operate in contested environments without requiring a human or central AI planner to explicitly direct every action.

By the program’s final phase, DARPA wants researchers to test simulated collectives involving as many as 100,000 AI agents exchanging up to 1 million messages as they work toward shared objectives.

A recently released solicitation notice describes DICE as a 36-month effort divided between decentralization, adversarial robustness, and large-scale testing.

“Future conflicts will unfold at machine speed, and the current centralized planning and scripted orchestration approach is too slow, too rigid, and too predictable for the hyper-dynamic, contested environments of the future,” researchers write. “Surprise, adaptability, and resilience will depend on the ability to compose and recompose AI capabilities on demand.”

The basic premise behind DARPA’s DICE program is that today’s approach to multi-agent AI has a serious weakness. Most systems involving multiple AI agents still rely on some form of central orchestrator.

Think of it as a manager overseeing a team of specialized employees. One AI agent might gather information. Another analyzes it. A third creates a plan. A fourth executes a particular task. But somewhere in the system, a central planner or workflow typically decides who does what and combines the results.

That works reasonably well for predictable tasks. However, DARPA argues it may be dangerously vulnerable on a battlefield.

A central orchestrator creates a bottleneck because every increasingly complex mission must ultimately flow through a single decision-making structure. As the number of agents, roles, and interactions grows, the central planner must absorb more information, preserve greater context, and coordinate an expanding web of specialized systems.

Eventually, DARPA says, even an AI orchestrator can hit the context and inference limits of its underlying foundation model. There is also a more obvious military problem. A central command node is a single point of failure.

If communications are degraded, information arrives late, or the orchestrator itself is compromised, errors can potentially spread throughout the entire AI collective.

In a future conflict where electronic warfare, cyberattacks, deception, and broken communications are expected rather than exceptional, that vulnerability could be catastrophic.

DICE proposes a radically different model.

Rather than having a central AI issue instructions, individual AI agents would communicate directly with one another. They could form temporary teams, divide missions into smaller tasks, negotiate roles, combine incomplete information, and reorganize themselves when conditions change.

DARPA compares the idea to the architecture of the internet, where resilient global behavior can emerge from relatively simple local rules and decentralized interactions.

Essentially, an AI agent might receive a mission and determine that only part of the objective falls within its capabilities. The agent could volunteer to handle that portion and broadcast the remaining problem to neighboring agents.

Another agent might take the next task. Others could compete to perform the same job, potentially bidding based on cost or capability. Through repeated local interactions along with distributed consensus, the collective could gradually assemble its own mission plan.

If an agent fails, the entire mission does not necessarily need to be replanned. Its particular task could simply be offered back to the collective.

DARPA calls the larger concept “controlled emergence.”

Similar systems already exist in nature. Ant colonies, or flocks of birds, can engage in surprisingly complex group behavior even though no individual member possesses a complete understanding of the collective.

Computer scientists have long studied similar phenomena. DARPA’s solicitation even points to Conway’s Game of Life, the famous mathematical simulation in which extraordinarily complex patterns can emerge from a handful of simple rules.

The challenge is applying that principle to cognitive systems capable of reasoning, planning, and independently pursuing goals.

A sophisticated AI system may interpret ambiguous information, interact with tools, maintain memory, and generate its own intermediate objectives. Put thousands of such agents together, allow them to communicate, and the resulting collective could behave in ways that were never explicitly programmed.

That unpredictability is both the attraction and the danger of DICE.

DARPA wants the collective to remain creative enough to discover unexpected courses of action. However, it also wants individual agents to continue aligned with their designated roles, the wider mission, established doctrine, and ultimately the human user’s intent.

Too much control could produce a predictable but unstable AI force incapable of adapting. Too little control could allow agents to drift from their roles or develop what DARPA calls “instrumental goals” that are not consistent with the mission.

In other words, the Pentagon’s research arm wants emergence—but only within boundaries.

To solve the problem, DICE researchers will develop a local adaptor designed to interface with each AI agent. Rather than functioning as a central command system, each adaptor would operate locally, helping the agent coordinate with peers while simultaneously monitoring and modifying its behavior.

For AI models whose internal activations are accessible, researchers may experiment with techniques such as “activation steering.”

The simplified idea is that assigning an AI a particular role can create detectable patterns inside the model. Researchers may be able to identify a mathematical representation associated with that role and continuously steer the model back toward it when the agent begins to drift. DARPA describes these representations as potential “role vectors.”

For proprietary or black-box AI models whose internal activations cannot be directly examined, the challenge becomes considerably harder. DICE researchers may instead experiment with memory editing, context engineering, tool restrictions, or even game-theoretic incentives created to encourage collaborative behavior.

The solicitation draws an intriguing comparison to the way social norms emerge and spread among humans. As AI models become better at reasoning and more aware of the context in which they operate, DARPA suggests that the same growing sophistication that fuels fears about rogue AI could also provide a new way to control it.

The scale DARPA ultimately envisions is enormous.

During the first nine-month phase of DICE, simulated missions are expected to involve approximately 500 agents and 5,000 interactions. DARPA will compare the decentralized systems with state-of-the-art centrally orchestrated multi-agent AI systems.

The second phase increases the target to 5,000 agents and 50,000 interactions while introducing adversarial conditions. Agents may fail, receive deceptive information, or deliberately behave as compromised or rogue members of the collective.

By the final 12-month phase, DICE aims to test simulations involving 100,000 agents and 1 million interactions.

At that scale, DARPA is not simply studying better chatbots working together. The agency is exploring whether collective intelligence itself can become a military capability.

One example described in the solicitation imagines AI agents conducting operational planning across an entire conflict ecosystem. Some agents could negotiate for raw materials in contested areas. Others might manage supply chains, optimize manufacturing, deploy units, conduct battle management, or analyze post-battle damage.

Even an individual simulated drone could effectively become a miniature AI collective composed of separate navigation, perception, and networking agents.

Under the DICE concept, those capabilities may potentially be recombined as conditions change. DARPA offers the example of a surveillance drone being repurposed as a network router because the collective recognizes an emerging communications need.

The important distinction is that no central planner necessarily has to foresee that solution. The collective discovers it.

Still, DARPA is careful to note that DICE is a research program centered on simulation. The agency’s public program page explicitly states that its scope does not include developing or launching autonomous systems in the real world.

Instead, DICE will use Department of War-relevant simulated environments to measure whether decentralized AI collectives can outperform today’s centrally orchestrated systems. Those simulations may resemble extraordinarily large and complicated strategy games.

DARPA suggests researchers could draw inspiration from StarCraft or massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the environments must remain relevant to military problems. High-fidelity physics is not necessarily required. In fact, rendering every drone, vehicle, or battlefield interaction in photorealistic detail could make a simulation of 100,000 AI agents computationally impossible.

The focus is on reasoning. DARPA wants to know whether thousands of AI agents can gather and combine fragmented information without simply reinforcing one another’s incorrect assumptions. The systems will be tested on their ability to recognize deception, isolate compromised agents, adapt when communications fail, and remain focused on a mission across thousands of reasoning steps.

Perhaps most importantly, DICE is designed to examine how these massive AI collectives behave when their interactions yield outcomes their designers never anticipated.

DARPA explicitly wants its test environments to provoke emergent collaboration, competition, and even collusion.

During later phases, DICE teams will face one another in simulated “team vs team playoffs.” The second phase will culminate in a competition used to select which research teams advance. The final phase will feature another head-to-head competition after the systems have been pushed toward full scale.

By Phase 3, the program will bring in another significant complication: AI agents creating other AI agents. That progression draws attention to the deeper tension at the center of DICE.

For years, much of the AI safety debate has focused on preventing autonomous systems from exhibiting unforeseen behavior. DARPA is approaching the problem from a different direction. The agency appears to believe that, in future contested environments, some degree of unforeseen behavior may be precisely what gives an AI collective its value.

A perfectly scripted system is predictable not only to its commanders but potentially to an adversary.

DICE is therefore attempting something considerably more ambitious than building a larger multi-agent AI framework. DARPA wants to understand whether engineers can deliberately cultivate emergent machine intelligence, allow it enough freedom to improvise, and still build controls capable of keeping an enormous AI collective aligned with a human-defined mission.

Whether those competing demands can coexist remains an open question. The program’s own solicitation repeatedly acknowledges the possibility of role drift, deceptive agents, collusion, compromised systems, and AI agents independently developing misaligned actions.

Ultimately, those are not side issues. They are the fundamental questions the DICE program was created to answer.

“DICE is built for such autonomy-powered, high-tempo battlespace,” the solicitation notice reads. “It is a future where success is measured by the relentless, creative ability of an autonomous collective to execute missions in the face of chaos and uncertainty. This is a profound and necessary departure from the past.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

For thousands of years, humans have deliberately manipulated their breathing in search of something outside the ordinary waking mind. Now, scientists are finding measurable evidence that the right pattern of breathing may push consciousness into territory normally associated with psychedelic drugs.

In the first randomized controlled study to directly examine breathwork-induced altered states of consciousness, researchers found that a single 90-minute session of intense, continuous breathing produced significantly stronger psychedelic-like effects than meditation, including mystical experiences, feelings of oneness, visual changes, and powerful emotional breakthroughs.

Even more intriguingly, participants reported greater psychological understanding and behavioral changes a week later.

Published in Frontiers in Psychology, the findings add to a growing body of research investigating whether deliberately altering respiration can provide a drug-free pathway into altered states of consciousness,  possibly reproducing some of the psychological effects increasingly associated with psychedelic therapy.

The study focused on conscious connected breathing, or CCB, a form of high-ventilation breathwork involving continuous breathing without pauses between inhalation and exhalation.

Unlike the slow, deliberate breathing commonly associated with relaxation, high-ventilation breathwork intentionally increases the rate or depth of respiration.

During trials, participants continuously breathed through their mouths, actively inhaling and passively exhaling while listening to music that progressed from loud and fast-paced to progressively slower and softer over 90 minutes.

“Results from this preliminary experimental study indicate that breathwork is associated with larger acute psychedelic-like effects than meditation,” researchers write. “These exploratory relationships and preliminary observations provide greater context around breathwork-induced ASCs and support the feasibility of ASC-focused breathwork research for future confirmatory trials.”

Putting Breathwork Head-to-Head With Meditation

Breathing techniques have played a role in spiritual and contemplative practices for millennia. Yogic traditions include both slow and rapid breathing methods, while intentional respiration also appears in Qigong, Sufi dhikr, and shamanic practices.

Researchers say the scientific study of high-ventilation breathwork remains in its “embryonic” stage. However, that is slowly beginning to change.

As The Debrief previously reported, researchers using MRI and physiological measurements found that intense circular breathwork could produce altered states resembling those associated with psychedelics. The intensity of participants’ subjective experiences was tracked with changes in cerebral blood flow and autonomic nervous system activity.

However, those earlier investigations lacked a control group.

The new research, called the Airways to Alteration, or A2A, trial, attempted to address that limitation by directly comparing high-ventilation breathwork with an established contemplative practice: body scan meditation.

Researchers recruited 24 relatively healthy adults between 18 and 65. All had previously practiced conscious connected breathing without experiencing an adverse event.

Twelve participants were randomly assigned to the breathwork group. The remaining 12 underwent a 40-minute guided body scan meditation.

The researchers deliberately chose meditation as an active comparison rather than simply asking a control group to do nothing. Both groups lay on mats, used eye masks, listened to music, and participated in similar orientation and grounding procedures.

Meditation itself has also been associated with altered states and mystical experiences. In effect, the researchers were comparing two practices capable of shifting subjective awareness.

What happened next, however, was markedly different.

Breathwork Produced Stronger Mystical Experiences

Immediately after the sessions, participants completed several standardized psychological questionnaires commonly used in psychedelic research.

The breathwork group scored significantly higher in overall mystical experience, oneness, positive mood, and “ineffability”—the feeling that an experience is difficult or impossible to adequately describe in words.

On the study’s measure of total mystical experience, the median score for breathwork participants was 14. The meditation group scored 8.5.

The difference in emotional breakthrough was even more striking.

Participants who completed breathwork had a median Emotional Breakthrough Inventory score of 336. Those who meditated had a median score of 57.5.

Researchers also examined five dimensions commonly associated with altered states of consciousness. Breathwork participants reported significantly higher levels of “oceanic boundlessness” and “visionary restructuralisation.”

Oceanic boundlessness encompasses experiences including feelings of oneness, spiritual insight, bliss, and a loosening of the ordinary sense of self. Visionary restructuring includes changes in visual perception and imagery.

One participant described experiencing “very interesting visual hallucinations” alongside a “very cathartic emotional release.”

Another said the session produced stronger psychedelic qualities than they had experienced during previous breathwork sessions.

“The experience was emotional and cathartic,” the participant reported, noting that “at one time, I cried but not with sadness, more with a strong feeling of what life is all about and how incredible it is and how lucky we are.”

Not everyone described the experience as psychedelic. One participant said they remained fully present throughout the session and primarily experienced a physical and psychological release.

Still, the overall pattern revealed that compared with meditation, intense breathwork was associated with substantially stronger acute alterations in consciousness.

The Effects Didn’t Necessarily End When the Breathing Stopped

What may be the study’s most consequential finding emerged a week later. Researchers asked participants to complete a Psychological Insight Scale designed to assess meaningful personal realizations following psychedelic experiences.

The breathwork group reported a median psychological insight score of 33.67. The meditation group scored 5.83. Self-reported behavioral change followed a similar pattern. Breathwork participants had a median score of 50, compared with 5.5 among those who meditated.

Both differences represented large effect sizes.

The results suggest that the altered state produced during breathwork may be associated with psychological changes that go beyond the acute experience.

“Amongst the secondary outcomes, the breathwork group self-reported substantially greater psychological insight and accompanied behavioral change compared to the meditation group, with large effect sizes observed for both measures,” the researchers explain. “This finding suggests that breathwork could be connected to meaningful psychological breakthroughs, accompanied by translation of these insights into tangible behavioral modifications.”

The researchers caution that these personal accounts are anecdotal and that the qualitative portion of the study was limited. Still, the reports appeared broadly consistent with the measurable differences in mental insight and self-reported behavioral change.

A Surprising Connection to Sleep

The study also uncovered an unexpected difference involving sleep. Both groups showed improvements in stress, anxiety, depression, and overall mental well-being. However, researchers found a considerable difference between the two groups: breathwork produced significantly greater improvements in sleep-related impairment.

Median sleep impairment scores in the breathwork group dropped from 54.8 before the intervention to 39.2 afterward. Scores among meditation participants remained comparatively stable.

More intriguingly, improvements in sleep were correlated with the intensity of participants’ mystical experiences, feelings of oneness, and oceanic boundlessness.

In other words, participants who reported deeper altered states also tended to report greater improvements in sleep.

Exactly how the two may be connected remains unclear. The researchers note that sleep is itself an altered state of consciousness and plays an essential function in memory consolidation and insight, including the mental reorganization that can lead to new understanding. Still, the apparent link between deeper breathwork-induced altered states and improved sleep remains preliminary.

Breathwork Is Not Simply a Psychedelic Without the Drug

Despite the comparisons, researchers caution against treating every altered state of consciousness as the same phenomenon.

A psychedelic state induced by psilocybin, a hyperventilation-driven state produced through breathwork, and deep meditative absorption may overlap on psychological questionnaires. That does not mean the brain achieves those states through identical mechanisms.

Nevertheless, the similarities are difficult to ignore.

Previous research has found that high-ventilation breathwork can produce effects on standardized altered-consciousness measurements within the range observed after moderate-to-high doses of psilocybin.

The earlier neuroimaging research covered by The Debrief also found that the depth of breathwork-induced altered states tracked with changes in cerebral blood flow and autonomic nervous system activity.

This latest study takes that research one step further. Rather than simply demonstrating that breathwork can produce psychedelic-like experiences, the controlled comparison suggests those experiences are substantially more intense than the effects produced by body scan meditation under broadly similar environmental conditions.

Promising Results, but Major Limitations

Researchers repeatedly emphasize that the A2A trial was a small, exploratory study and does not yet provide evidence that breathwork is a proven replacement for psychedelic-assisted therapy.

All participants had prior breathwork experience, which may have led them to enter the experiment with expectations about what would happen. The study was also open-label, and participants knew whether they were breathing intensely or meditating.

Additionally, the breathwork session lasted 90 minutes compared with 40 minutes for meditation. Breathwork participants also listened to more intense music and were explicitly told about the possibility of expanded states of consciousness, emotional expression, and unusual physical sensations.

Those differences could have influenced the results.

The study also excluded people with a range of cardiovascular, respiratory, neurological, and psychological conditions. No adverse events were reported, but researchers acknowledge this was unsurprising, as participants had already practiced the technique without prior adverse reactions.

For that reason, the findings should not be interpreted as evidence that intense breathwork is safe or appropriate for everyone.

Future experiments will need to recruit people who have never practiced breathwork and tease apart the different ingredients involved.

The findings also leave several important questions unanswered. How much of the altered state is driven by rapid breathing itself, and how much comes from the music or group setting? Perhaps most importantly, researchers still need to determine how strongly the expectation of a profound experience shapes what a person ultimately experiences.

Yet, for a field increasingly interested in whether altered states can be harnessed for therapeutic purposes, the outcomes yield an interesting possibility.

Under carefully controlled conditions, consciously manipulating something as fundamental as breathing appears capable of profoundly changing how people experience themselves and the world around them.

“A logical next step would be replicating our study in breathwork-naïve participants to help mitigate expectancy effects and determine whether such ASCs emerge as profoundly as in experienced practitioners,” researchers write. “Future research contrasting HVB effects across participants with varying experience levels and in different environments is essential for informing the public about safe breathwork engagement.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

More than a century after Sigmund Freud developed some of his most influential—and controversial—ideas about the human mind, a new study indicates that modern neuroscience may be arriving at a surprisingly familiar destination.

Researchers at the University of Oslo argue that Freud’s concepts of projection, wish fulfillment, transference, and the unconscious may share a fundamental architecture with one of the most influential emerging theories in cognitive neuroscience: the idea that the brain is essentially a prediction machine.

Rather than passively receiving information from the world, the brain may continuously anticipate what will happen next, compare those expectations with incoming sensory information, and either revise its internal model or act to make reality conform more closely to its expectations.

In a paper published in the journal Entropy, researchers propose that this modern “predictive processing” framework may provide a neuroscientific explanation for mental processes that psychoanalysts have described from the perspective of subjective human experience for more than a century.

The researchers do not claim that neuroscience has proved Freud right. Instead, they argue that psychoanalysis and predictive processing may describe some of the same fundamental operations of the mind at two very different levels of analysis.

“The predictive processing model is a paradigm of the mind where the brain’s main task is to construct and interact with the world through predictions,” researchers write. “The world we perceive and interact with is a world that we create from our past, from expectancies and actions.”

The basic idea behind predictive processing represents a significant departure from older models of perception. Traditionally, the brain was often described as something like an information-processing machine: a stimulus arrives from the outside world, the brain processes it, and a response follows.

Predictive processing effectively turns much of that sequence around.

Under this system, the brain is constantly generating models of what it expects to encounter. Those predictions are formed by previous experiences, biological needs, and learned expectations. Incoming sensory information is then compared against the brain’s predictions.

When the two match, all is relatively well. When they do not, the discrepancy creates what neuroscientists call a prediction error.

The brain can respond in at least two broad ways. It can update its internal model to better reflect reality, a process known as perceptual inference. Or it can act on the world in ways that make reality more closely correspond to its prior prediction, a process known as active inference.

Researchers point to a familiar example: the fear of snakes. Someone who assumes snakes are dangerous may gradually revise that expectation after repeated encounters with harmless ones, eventually becoming less afraid. But if the fear is strong enough, the person may avoid snakes entirely. By never getting close enough to discover that some pose no threat, their behavior prevents the prediction from being challenged—and, in effect, helps keep the fear alive.

“To perceive is to predict, to act is to act out the prediction,” researchers explain.

According to the researchers, this framework itself bears a striking resemblance to concepts developed by Freud and later psychoanalysts.

Freud proposed that people do not experience the world as completely neutral observers. Past experiences, desires, fears, and unconscious expectations can shape how they perceive other people and events. In psychoanalytic theory, “projection” can occur when a person attributes internal feelings or expectations to someone else.

A person who feels hostility, for example, may perceive others as hostile. Someone who expects criticism because of earlier relationships may interpret ambiguous behavior as rejection. In more complex cases, people may even behave in ways that encourage others to respond as expected.

The researchers argue that this resembles a form of prediction.

In both models, past experience creates a template to understand the present. The brain—or, in psychoanalytic terminology, the mind—attempts to reduce uncertainty by making the world familiar and predictable.

That does not necessarily mean making the world pleasant.

One of the more consequential implications of the proposed connection is that people may sometimes preserve painful or destructive patterns precisely because those patterns are familiar. A predictable threat can, in some circumstances, create less uncertainty than an unfamiliar form of safety.

The researchers use the example of a woman who was frequently criticized by her mother when she was a child. As an adult, she continues to carry an internal critical voice that tells her she is not good enough. Even when praised, she may dismiss the compliment as undeserved.

From a psychoanalytic perspective, she has internalized—or “introjected”—the critical relationship. From a predictive-processing perspective, positive feedback conflicts with a deeply accepted model of what she expects from herself and others.

The result is a provocative possibility. People sometimes reject evidence that their circumstances have changed because accepting it would require the brain to rebuild its model of the world.

“The one with paranoia and the one with a self-critical inner voice minimize surprise at the cost of reality testing and psychological flexibility,” the researchers write.

The proposed connection also reaches into the “free energy principle,” a conceptual framework associated with neuroscientist Dr. Karl Friston. In simple terms, the framework describes biological systems as continually working to limit uncertainty and maintain themselves within viable states.

For the brain, unexpected information produces what researchers describe as “surprisal.” The mismatch between anticipation and reality can force the brain to do additional work, either changing its model or changing its behavior.

This may help explain why surprise can be uncomfortable and why the familiar can feel safe even when it is objectively harmful.

Freud approached a similar problem via the concept of homeostasis, although he developed his ideas before the term became widely established. The researchers argue that Freud’s concept of “perceptual identity”—the predisposition to seek or recreate perceptions associated with previously satisfying experiences—may be particularly compatible with modern predictive processing.

If researchers are correct, it could have consequences for understanding psychotherapy.

In psychoanalysis, patients may repeatedly bring expectations formed in earlier relationships into their relationship with a therapist, a phenomenon termed transference. Someone accustomed to abandonment, hostility, or criticism may expect the therapist to behave in the same way.

A therapeutic relationship that repeatedly violates those expectations would create precisely the type of prediction error that forces an internal model to change.

In this view, cognitive awareness is not simply an intellectual realization. It may involve confronting the fact that a deeply embedded prediction about the world has failed.

That failure produces surprise. And surprise, the researchers suggest, may be one of the mechanisms that makes psychological change possible.

A patient who expects rejection yet repeatedly encounters a safe, reliable relationship faces a mismatch between prediction and reality. The person can attempt to preserve the old model, perhaps through interpreting benign behavior as threatening, or gradually update the model to accommodate a different possibility.

This is where researchers believe psychoanalysis may offer something that computational neuroscience alone cannot easily provide.

Predictive processing attempts to explain the mechanisms by which brains generate, test, and update predictions. In contrast, psychoanalysis has spent more than a century attempting to describe what those processes feel like from inside the person experiencing them.

The researchers are careful to acknowledge significant differences between the fields. Predictive processing is primarily a descriptive scientific framework intended to explain how minds and brains function. Psychoanalysis is a clinical practice concerned with psychological suffering and how it might be treated.

There is also a difference in emphasis. Neuroscience often studies ordinary predictions involved in perception and behavior, while psychoanalytic concepts such as projection have frequently been developed through observations of psychological distress and mental illness.

Most importantly, the paper does not present new experimental evidence demonstrating that Freud’s concepts relate to specific neural mechanisms. It is a theoretical synthesis proposing that two intellectual traditions, one built largely on clinical observation and subjective experience, the other on computational and neuroscientific models, may describe overlapping features of the mind.

Nevertheless, the proposed convergence is notable.

Freud originally hoped that psychological theories might eventually be connected to the brain’s biological workings, but the neuroscience of his era was nowhere near capable of doing so. For much of the 20th century, psychoanalysis and experimental neuroscience grew increasingly distant.

Predictive processing may offer an unexpected point of reconnection.

If the brain constantly uses the past to predict the present, then projection, transference, and even the tendency to repeat destructive patterns may be viewed not simply as abstract psychoanalytic concepts but as subjective manifestations of a more fundamental biological imperative: reducing uncertainty and maintaining a workable model of the world.

That position could ultimately change how researchers think about the relationship between the brain’s computational machinery and the intensely personal experience of being human. Rather than treating subjective experience and neuroscience as incompatible domains, the researchers suggest that each may illuminate what the other cannot see.

“Psychoanalysis consists of a vast resource of theories about the subjective mind, projection being central among these, and neuro-psychoanalysis adds an external view of the mind while studying the biological and neurological substrate of psychology,” researchers write.

“Relational encounters in a safe environment, as in psychoanalysis, can produce surprise,” the authors add, “which again permits new ways of predicting and being in the world.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

By any historical measure, the human cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered unprecedented territory. Now, a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Russia has suffered roughly 1.4 million battlefield casualties, including as many as 450,000 deaths, since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

If accurate, those losses not only dwarf those sustained by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and Russia’s wars in Chechnya—they exceed the combined military fatalities Russia and the Soviet Union suffered in every conflict since the end of the Second World War.

​More striking, researchers estimate that Russia’s battlefield losses have become increasingly lopsided relative to Ukraine’s, with the casualty ratio climbing from roughly two or three Russian casualties for every Ukrainian casualty during much of the war to nearly eight-to-one during the first half of 2026.

​CSIS estimates Ukraine has suffered between 525,000 and 625,000 battlefield casualties, including between 125,000 and 150,000 fatalities, since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Combined, the report finds, Russian and Ukrainian battlefield casualties have now exceeded 2 million.

​The evidence shows that while Moscow continues to push offensive operations, it is doing so at an increasingly staggering human cost.

The report, Russian Blood and Treasure: The Ballooning Costs of Putin’s War, examines battlefield casualties, fatalities, territorial gains, rates of advance, and more than 20,000 documented Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets.

Rather than relying on anecdotal assessments, the researchers compiled numerous datasets to evaluate how Russia’s military campaign has evolved over more than four years of fighting. Their conclusion: although Russia continues to wage war, its battlefield performance has deteriorated while the costs in manpower have reached historic levels.

“Russian battlefield costs continue to mount, with as many as 450,000 battlefield deaths and 1.4 million casualties between February 2022 and June 2026,” researchers write. “These rates are astounding.”

Those numbers place the war in a category unlike virtually any other conflict fought by a major military power since 1945.

According to the report, Russia’s estimated fatalities in Ukraine are more than four times greater than all U.S. military deaths in every war combined since World War II, including Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf War.

The report estimates that the United States has suffered approximately 102,000 combat fatalities across every major conflict fought over the past 80 years since World War II. Russia, by comparison, is estimated to have suffered as many as 450,000 battlefield deaths in Ukraine alone in just over four years.

The comparison is even more extraordinary when viewed through Russia’s own military history. The Soviet Union lost an estimated 14,000 to 16,000 troops during its decade-long war in Afghanistan. Russia’s First and Second Chechen Wars claimed between 12,000 and 25,000 military fatalities.

​Even when combined with every other Soviet and Russian military intervention since 1950—including Georgia, Syria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and earlier fighting in Ukraine before 2022—the total remains dramatically below the losses estimated in the current war.

​According to the CSIS analysis, Russian battlefield deaths in Ukraine are now more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian military fatalities in other conflicts since World War II combined.

Significantly, the casualty imbalance between Russia and Ukraine continues to widen.

For much of the conflict, researchers estimate Russia suffered between two and three casualties for every Ukrainian casualty. However, by early 2026, that ratio had nearly quadrupled to approximately 8:1, reflecting mounting Russian losses while Ukraine increasingly leveraged defensive positions and new technologies to inflict disproportionate damage.

​Combined, both sides have now endured more than two million casualties, underscoring the extraordinary scale of Europe’s largest land war since World War II.

The report identifies several reasons for Russia’s escalating losses. Russian commanders have increasingly relied on attritional tactics that send small, often poorly trained infantry squads forward to probe Ukrainian positions, supported by artillery, glide bombs, first-person-view drones, and armored vehicles.

If Ukrainian defenders reveal their positions by opening fire, those locations are identified, mapped, and then targeted with artillery, FPV drones, and glide bombs before additional Russian forces press the attack.

According to the report, the strategy has inflicted staggering casualties while producing only incremental territorial gains.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has spent years constructing dense defensive belts consisting of trenches, minefields, anti-tank obstacles known as “dragon’s teeth,” artillery positions, and increasingly sophisticated drone networks.

​According to the report, the battlefield has effectively become a vast “kill zone” stretching roughly 12 to 25 miles from the front, where soldiers and vehicles are under near-constant surveillance from drones capable of detecting and directing attacks against almost any movement.

​Estimates cited in the report suggest that more than 90 percent of Russian casualties may now result from drone attacks rather than traditional infantry engagements, showing how unmanned systems have radically changed the battlefield.

​AI-enabled drones capable of autonomous target identification and terminal guidance provide further increased Ukraine’s defensive advantages while reducing the effectiveness of Russian electronic warfare.

Critically, this tremendous human cost has not translated into rapid military gains.

CSIS found that Russian offensives around key cities such as Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Sloviansk have advanced at average rates of only about 55 to 100 yards per day—roughly half the length of a football field on a good day and among the slowest offensive rates recorded in modern warfare.

​The researchers compare these advances to the infamous Battle of the Somme during World War I, one of history’s most attritional campaigns, while noting that Russia’s early invasion advances in 2022 moved between 30 and 100 times faster than current operations.

Perhaps even more telling, the report notes that Russia’s territorial gains have begun moving in the opposite direction. After years of incremental advances, Russian-controlled territory actually shrank during April and May 2026, marking the first monthly net territorial losses since 2024. Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed roughly 155 square miles during the spring, suggesting Russia’s immense expenditure of manpower is producing diminishing strategic returns.

The staggering casualty figures raise questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its current strategy indefinitely.

Researchers estimate Russia is currently suffering between 30,000 and 34,000 battlefield casualties each month, while recruiting roughly 27,000 new soldiers monthly. If those estimates are accurate, Moscow may now be losing personnel faster than it can replace them, continuing to strain an already strained wartime economy.

Despite these staggering losses, the report concludes that neither side appears close to military collapse. Russia retains considerable manpower reserves and continues operating a wartime economy capable of sustaining prolonged combat.

In a June 28 speech to the ruling United Russia Party Congress, Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to project strength, insisting that Russia had the resources, political will, and national unity needed to pursue the war. He also rejected the idea that Western pressure could force a strategic defeat, claiming Ukrainian forces were retreating across the front, and framing Russian victory as equally inevitable and essential to the country’s core interests.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has demonstrated an ability to impose disproportionate costs through defensive tactics, long-range strikes, and rapidly evolving drone technologies that continue to reshape modern warfare.

Ultimately, this suggests the war remains locked in a brutal contest of attrition with no clear military end in sight. Although both sides continue adapting their tactics and technologies, neither has demonstrated the ability to achieve a decisive breakthrough.

As long as the conflict continues under these conditions, the report suggests the human toll—already unprecedented in post-World War II Europe—is likely to continue climbing, with both Russia and Ukraine facing the prospect of hundreds of thousands more casualties before the fighting ultimately ends.

“The war in Ukraine heavily favors the defender, a dynamic that has frustrated Russian offensives but also constrained Ukrainian counterattacks,” researchers write. “As the data in this analysis shows, Russia’s progress on the battlefield has been historically poor, with Russian casualties, fatalities, and average rates of advance among the worst of any major power in any war since World War II.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

A growing body of evidence suggests that leaving Earth may do far more than challenge the human body. According to a new study, the absence of gravity itself could temporarily reshape consciousness, loosening the brain’s most strongly ingrained assumptions and opening the door to altered perceptions, expanded awareness, and even experiences that resemble some aspects of psychedelic states.

As humanity prepares for longer stays on the Moon, commercial space tourism, and eventual missions to Mars, researchers contend that understanding what happens to the mind in microgravity may be just as important as understanding the engineering that gets astronauts there. According to them, gravity may not simply keep people anchored to the ground—it may also help anchor human consciousness itself.

In a new paper published in Frontiers in Psychology, researchers Dr. Annahita Nezami and Dr. Elisa Raffaella Ferre of Birkbeck, University of London, explored decades of neuroscience, psychology, and spaceflight research to propose that Earth’s gravitational pull acts as a deeply embedded “super-prior” within the brain. By disrupting this ancient reference point, microgravity may trigger widespread changes across neural networks that underpin perception, self-awareness, and emotional regulation.

“Human consciousness has evolved under the constant pull of terrestrial gravity, yet its role in shaping perception and awareness has received limited theoretical attention,” researchers write. “As spaceflight transitions from short missions to long-duration habitation, understanding how consciousness responds to non-terrestrial gravity becomes increasingly urgent.”

Every human brain evolved under the constant force of Earth’s gravity. From before birth onward, sensory systems constantly rely on gravity cues to determine which way is up, where the body is in space, and how to interpret movement.

Researchers argue that this constant exposure has made gravity one of the brain’s most reliable assumptions. In the language of predictive neuroscience, the brain constantly generates expectations about the world and updates them using incoming sensory information. Gravity, they say, functions as a basic expectation—a “1G super-prior”—that helps stabilize consciousness.

Remove that constant, and things begin to change.

In orbit, vestibular signals from the inner ear become unreliable. Visual, proprioceptive, and balance information no longer align as the brain evolved to expect. The resulting mismatch generates anticipation errors, forcing widespread recalibration.

Those changes are already well documented among astronauts. Space travelers commonly experience spatial disorientation, altered body perception, sleep disturbances, mood swings, and, in some cases, feelings of depersonalization or derealization—states in which individuals feel separated from themselves or perceive their surroundings as unreal.

Astronauts have also reported more positive and profound experiences. Many describe feeling “unmoored,” “expanded,” and deeply interconnected with humanity, or overwhelmed by awe while viewing Earth from orbit. This phenomenon, known as the Overview Effect, has been associated with lasting shifts in values, increased environmental concern, and enhanced feelings of oneness.

The study suggests that these experiences might originate from the same neurocognitive processes triggered when gravity’s stabilizing role is weakened.

“By perturbing the most stable embodied reference – gravity itself – spaceflight offers a rare window into how fundamental expectations shape consciousness,” researchers write. “The loosening of perceptual boundaries in microgravity has been proposed as a neurocognitive foundation for the Overview Effect.”

Brain imaging studies lend support to the idea. MRI scans of astronauts before and after extended-duration missions have revealed structural changes, including fluid redistribution, enlargement of brain ventricles, and gray matter remodeling. Functional MRI studies have also found changes in connectivity among vestibular, sensory, and default mode network regions involved in awareness and the combining of internal and external information.

Especially intriguing are changes observed in the default mode network, a system involved in introspection, self-referential thought, and consciousness. Activity inside this network appears to diminish after spaceflight, with some changes persisting for months after astronauts return to Earth.

Electroencephalography studies have likewise detected reductions in alpha-wave activity during and after missions, another sign that brain function is being reorganized in response to microgravity.

These neural changes led the researchers to an unexpected comparison.

Many of the same large-scale patterns recorded after spaceflight resemble effects previously documented under psychedelic compounds such as psilocybin and LSD. In both situations, highly organized brain networks appear to loosen, while communication between previously separate regions increases.

Researchers stress that the mechanisms are entirely different. Psychedelics act through serotonin receptors, whereas microgravity represents an environmental disruption rather than a pharmacological one. Yet both seem to converge by weakening the brain’s highest-level assumptions and increasing the combination of sensory information.

According to researchers, this convergence phenomenon suggests that spaceflight could provide scientists with a natural, drug-free model for studying transformative states of consciousness.

The researchers argue that terrestrial gravity, microgravity, and psychedelic states may represent different conditions along a spectrum defined by the strength of the brain’s deeply ingrained “1G super-prior.” As that stabilizing role weakens, top-down constraints relax, potentially increasing neuroplasticity and mental flexibility.

The implications go beyond astronaut health. Understanding how consciousness changes in unfamiliar environments may provide new clues to the neural foundations of self-awareness. It could also prove increasingly important as private citizens spend more time in space and human settlements expand away from Earth.

Researchers suggest that microgravity offers scientists something that cannot be replicated on Earth—a chance to observe what happens when one of evolution’s oldest assumptions suddenly disappears.

“By situating consciousness in an environment for which evolution offers no precedent, spaceflight positions microgravity as a powerful natural neurocognitive catalyst for transformative experience,” researchers write. “In stepping beyond Earth’s gravity, we gain a unique vantage point from which to examine the contingent foundations of human awareness and the conditions under which it can be fundamentally transformed.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

In a University of Kentucky laboratory, three small spacecraft stand-ins slid across low-friction air tracks, nudging and pulling one another without thrusters, propellant, or physical contact.

Instead, they used carefully timed magnetic fields, a technique that could one day help future satellite swarms hold precise formations in space without constantly burning fuel.

The NASA and Air Force-backed study, set to be published in the September 2026 edition of Aerospace Science and Technology,  marks a step toward what researchers call electromagnetic formation flying, a proposed method for controlling the relative positions of satellites using onboard coils rather than conventional propellant-based thrusters.

In the study, researchers demonstrated a decentralized, three-satellite control system that used alternating magnetic field forces to maintain formation with centimeter-level precision, offering a possible pathway for future space telescopes, interferometers, gravity-wave detectors, and other distributed spacecraft missions.

“Spacecraft formation flying can advance a variety of space technologies such as distributed-aperture telescopes, gravity-wave detectors, and interferometers,” researchers write. “One challenge for spacecraft formation flying is that traditional propellant thrusters eventually deplete, and they can contaminate sensitive spacecraft components.”

The study, authored by scientists from the University of Kentucky’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, focuses on a longstanding problem in spacecraft engineering.

Many future missions may not rely on a single large spacecraft, but instead on groups of smaller satellites flying in carefully arranged formations. If those satellites can maintain their spacing and orientation with extreme precision, they could function together like a much larger scientific instrument.

For example, a distributed-aperture telescope could use multiple spacecraft separated by carefully controlled distances to achieve observing capabilities that might be difficult or impossible with a single monolithic telescope.

Similar formation-flying concepts have been proposed for space-based interferometers and additional missions in which the relative positions of spacecraft are central to mission performance.

However, keeping multiple satellites in formation is not easy. Standard spacecraft rely on thrusters, which consume limited propellant. Over time, that fuel runs out, limiting mission duration and maneuverability. Thruster plumes can also contaminate sensitive instruments, a concern on spacecraft carrying delicate optical, scientific, or electromagnetic sensors.

However, electromagnetic formation flying, or EMFF, offers a different possibility. Each spacecraft carries electromagnetic coils. When electric current flows through those coils, they create magnetic fields. Those fields interact with magnetic fields created by nearby spacecraft, producing attractive or repulsive forces that can alter the satellites’ positions relative to one another.

Put simply, the satellites can push or pull on each other using magnetism.

The idea is not entirely new. Previous work has explored electromagnetic formation flying between two spacecraft, including experiments using direct-current-driven coils.

The problem becomes much harder when the formation includes three or more satellites. In that case, every satellite’s magnetic field can interact with the others, creating a web of coupled forces that becomes increasingly difficult to control as the formation grows.

The new study approaches that problem using alternating magnetic field forces, or AMFF. Rather than driving the coils with steady direct current, the researchers use sinusoidal currents at specific frequencies.

The key insight is that two satellites generate a nonzero time-averaged interaction force only when their magnetic moments alternate at the same frequency. If they do not share a frequency, the average force between them is negligible.

That frequency-matching approach effectively allows the system to pair satellites electromagnetically. One pair can interact at one frequency, while another pair interacts at a different frequency.

By adjusting the amplitude of each sinusoidal signal, the satellites can control the strength of the force between each pair without requiring a centralized controller to solve the entire formation’s motion at once.

“Only pairs with a common frequency can generate a nonzero time-averaged intersatellite force, and that force is determined solely by the amplitudes at the common frequency,” researchers write. “The method in this paper is decentralized, which means that each satellite has access to measurements of its position and velocity relative to only its local neighbor satellites.”

Centralized control can work in smaller systems, but it can turn computationally clumsy as satellite formations grow. A scalable system would need each spacecraft to make local decisions based on nearby neighbors, rather than requiring a single controller to calculate every force across the entire formation.

To test the idea, the researchers built a ground-based experimental platform using three custom electromagnetic actuation system units placed on linear air tracks.

The air tracks allowed the units to move with low friction, simulating one-dimensional relative motion between satellites. Each unit included an electromagnetic coil, batteries, power electronics, an Arduino Due microcontroller, wireless communication hardware, and laser range-finding sensors for measuring relative position.

In the three-satellite setup, the center unit was driven by a sum of two sinusoidal currents, while each outer unit was driven by one of those frequencies. This allowed the center unit to interact independently with each outer unit, demonstrating the central premise of frequency-multiplexed magnetic control.

In closed-loop experiments, the three-satellite system achieved formation in less than 30 seconds. The maximum steady-state formation error was less than plus or minus 0.01 meters, or about 0.4 inches. The mean steady-state formation error was less than plus or minus 0.001 meters, or about 0.04 inches.

Those numbers demonstrate that the method did more than produce a magnetic tug in a lab. It allowed multiple units to settle into a desired formation using local feedback and alternating magnetic fields, while avoiding the coupling problem that has limited electromagnetic control for larger formations.

The researchers also compared the experimental results with computer simulations. While the simulations generally matched the observed behavior, the team noted some differences caused by real-world hardware factors, including sensor interference, current saturation, possible misalignment, airflow disturbances along the air tracks, and unmodeled magnetic effects.

Those caveats are important. This was not a spaceflight demonstration, and the system was tested only in one dimension. Real spacecraft would operate in a far more complex environment, where microgravity, radiation, extreme temperature swings, atmospheric drag in low Earth orbit, gravitational forces, Earth’s magnetic field, and equipment restrictions would all matter.

Researchers also note that traditional thrusters may still be needed for orbit maintenance, orbit transfers, or controlling the overall center of mass of a satellite formation.

In essence, this is not a replacement for all spacecraft propulsion. It is better understood as a possible propellantless method for controlling the relative positions of satellites once they are already in orbit and operating as part of a formation.

Still, that limitation does not diminish the possible impact. If electromagnetic formation flying can be scaled and adapted for real spacecraft, it could reduce propellant demands for future distributed missions. That could extend mission lifetimes, reduce contamination hazards to sensitive instruments, and enable spacecraft formations more flexible than today’s architectures.

The research was supported in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation, and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

The funding mix reflects the dual scientific and strategic interests in the work. NASA has clear reasons to explore precise formation flying for future space observatories and scientific missions. The Air Force, meanwhile, has an obvious interest in satellite coordination, maneuverability, and resilient distributed space systems.

The study’s most intriguing contribution may be its demonstration that magnetic-field-based satellite control can be both decentralized and scalable.

Rather than treating a multi-satellite formation in a single complicated system that must be controlled from the top down, AMFF allows each satellite to manage interactions with its neighbors using assigned frequencies. That could become increasingly valuable as space missions move toward constellations, swarms, and distributed architectures.

Researchers caution that additional work will be needed to move beyond one-dimensional air-track experiments and toward three-dimensional testing, more realistic sensing and control hardware, and, eventually, on-orbit validation.

Additional coils would be needed for three-dimensional position control, and relative attitude control could require additional actuation frequencies for each interacting satellite pair.

Nevertheless, the laboratory results show that the underlying concept works in a three-body system, which is exactly where the hard part begins.

Two satellites can pull or push on each other relatively easily. Three satellites introduce the coupling problem that makes electromagnetic formation flying difficult. By demonstrating three-satellite control with alternating magnetic fields, the study delivers experimental evidence that the frequency-based solution can work.

For forthcoming space missions, that could be a meaningful step. The next generation of telescopes and orbital instruments may not always be built as single enormous spacecraft. They may be assembled virtually, with multiple satellites flying together as one coordinated machine.

If so, keeping those satellites precisely arranged without wasting propellant could become one of the enabling technologies of future astronomy, Earth observation, and national security space systems.

“This article presented a 3-satellite experimental demonstration of decentralized EMFF using AMFF,” researchers conclude. “The settling time and steady-state formation error achieved in these experiments demonstrate that this approach is most likely capable of meeting requirements for satellite constellation reconfiguration and maintenance, thereby addressing the need for propellant-free formation flying.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

For five years, an elderly woman with advanced Alzheimer’s disease had spoken mostly in single words, needed help walking, and showed little spontaneous interaction with the people around her. Then, roughly 19 hours after receiving a high dose of psilocybin-containing mushrooms, she emerged from a prolonged, deep sleep-like state and began talking about her life.

The striking episode, described in a new case report published in Frontiers in Neuroscience, does not show that psilocybin reverses Alzheimer’s disease. The researchers are careful to stress that this was a single patient, observed in a real-world private clinical setting without brain imaging, formal sleep monitoring, or standardized cognitive testing.

Still, the study’s authors say the case raises the interesting possibility that in late-stage dementia, some functional abilities may indeed remain dormant rather than be completely lost.

“Advanced Alzheimer’s disease is generally regarded as a stage of irreversible functional decline,” researchers write. “This case documents transient multidomain functional improvement in advanced Alzheimer’s disease following psilocybin administration.”

The case involved a Japanese-American woman in her 80s with a 10-year history of Alzheimer’s disease. The patient was described as being in an advanced stage of dementia, with the previous five years being noted for severe decline.

Her speech had become mostly monosyllabic, and she had chronic urinary incontinence, executive dysfunction, dysphagia, dependent mobility, flat affect, prolonged somnolence, and a severe reduction in spontaneous communication.

Her diagnosis had been made clinically about a decade earlier, based on a steadily progressive neurodegenerative course, memory impairment, language reduction, executive dysfunction, and functional decline.

The intervention was a single oral dose of 5 grams of psilocybin-containing mushrooms from the “Enigma” strain. Researchers note that no established psilocybin dosing framework exists for advanced dementia, and the dose was high by almost any comparison.

Recreational users commonly describe 1 to 3 grams of dried Psilocybe cubensis mushrooms as a typical range, while doses around 3.5 grams or more are generally considered strong. A 5-gram dose is often treated as an especially intense experience. However, direct comparisons are imprecise because psilocybin content can vary widely between mushroom species, strains, batches, and even different parts of the same mushroom.

The study also notes that the dose was “relatively high compared with dosing approaches commonly used in modern clinical trials,” which typically use carefully measured amounts of purified psilocybin rather than whole mushrooms.

One month later, after some improvements persisted, the patient underwent a second supervised session using 3 grams.

The first session produced a dramatic acute response. The patient experienced autonomic activation, profuse sweating, suspected hyperthermia, and what the researchers describe as a prolonged deep sleep-like state. Exact temperature measurements were not available.

The study’s timeline shows that the first 12 hours were dominated by autonomic and sleep-like effects. At about 19 hours, the patient spontaneously awakened and produced roughly four hours of autobiographical speech.

By the first day, she showed increased alertness and recognition of family. By the second day, she was independently walking. By days two and three, she was dressing herself and showing spontaneous initiative. Around the same time, her diapers remained dry, including at night.

The improvement in continence was particularly notable to researchers because urinary control depends on more than a single simple reflex. It requires awareness of bodily signals, executive inhibition, and coordination among brain networks affected by dementia. The report states that the patient remained continent one month after the initial session, which was one reason a second session was performed.

During that second session, the patient reportedly remained more verbally expressive and described positive imagery involving surfing with her son on a peaceful island.

Researchers also observed improved facial expressivity, emotional reciprocity, spontaneous humor, and greater agility while walking. At one point during follow-up, the patient spontaneously said, “It is pleasant to come here.”

The study’s broader importance is in what it may suggest about the brain in advanced neurodegenerative disease. Alzheimer’s is usually understood as a progressive condition in which neurons and networks progressively deteriorate, stripping away memory, communication, mobility, and autonomy. By the advanced stage, treatment is largely supportive, and meaningful functional recovery is generally considered unlikely.

Psilocybin, however, is known to transiently alter large-scale brain dynamics via activation of the serotonin 5-HT2A receptor. Researchers point to prior human neuroimaging studies showing changes in default mode network integrity, network segregation, and functional connectivity after psilocybin administration. They also cited preclinical research suggesting psychedelics may promote structural and functional plasticity, including dendritic growth and synaptic remodeling.

That does not mean psilocybin repaired the patient’s Alzheimer’s disease. Instead, researchers suggest a more measured interpretation. The drug may have temporarily altered brain network activity, allowing remaining functional systems to reintegrate or become accessible again, at least for a limited period.

The report does not claim that plaques, tangles, or neurodegeneration were reversed. It also does not show that other patients would experience similar results. Because this was a single case, there was no control group, no placebo comparison, no formal biomarker confirmation, and no standardized cognitive testing to measure the degree of change.

Researchers acknowledge that mixed or alternative neurodegenerative contributions, including vascular components, cannot be fully excluded. Although they found no evidence of acute delirium, intoxication, or another acute neurological diagnosis during the observation period, the case remains observational. Causality cannot be established, and fluctuations in neurodegenerative disease cannot be completely ruled out.

The safety picture is also incomplete. While no severe persistent adverse effects, prolonged agitation, clinically significant cardiovascular instability, persistent psychotic symptoms, delayed neurological deterioration, or delayed medical complications were observed during follow-up, the acute phase included suspected hyperthermia and profuse sweating. In frail elderly patients, especially those with advanced dementia, such responses could carry serious risks.

For that reason, the findings should not be read as a green light for unsupervised psychedelic use in dementia patients. Psilocybin is still a powerful psychoactive compound, and older adults with complex neurological disease may be especially vulnerable to complications.

Ultimately, the value of the report doesn’t lie in providing a treatment recommendation but in documenting an unusual clinical observation that researchers say warrants controlled investigation.

The case also lands amid a flood of scientific interest in psychedelics as tools for studying brain plasticity, perception, memory, and large-scale network dysfunction.

As The Debrief has previously reported, recent brain-imaging work has found that psilocybin can temporarily dissolve familiar brain-network patterns tied to the sense of self, while other studies suggest psychedelics may redirect visual processing toward memory-related regions. Additional research has analyzed how a single dose of psilocybin may produce lasting brain changes, how the compound can reshape neural pathways associated with depression, and how psychedelic effects may be influenced by factors such as exercise, food restriction, and immune signaling.

However, most clinical work with psilocybin has centered on psychiatric conditions such as depression, anxiety, PTSD, and substance use disorders.

More recently, researchers have begun asking whether similar neuromodulatory effects might have relevance for people with mild cognitive impairment or early Alzheimer’s disease.

Published clinical data involving advanced dementia remain extremely limited, which is why the new report is best understood not as evidence of a treatment, but as a provocative case study that may help guide future controlled research.

This recent case does not prove efficacy, but it questions assumptions about what may remain possible in a brain already deeply affected by Alzheimer’s disease.

If future studies find similar effects under supervised conditions, the implications could be significant, not only for dementia care but also regarding understanding how much latent function can persist beneath the outward appearance of severe decline.

“Residual functional capacity may persist in advanced Alzheimer’s disease and may become transiently accessible following psilocybin induced modulation of large-scale brain networks,” researchers conclude. “Systematic investigation is warranted.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

A new proposed Senate bill aims to establish clear guardrails for the U.S. military’s use of artificial intelligence (AI), drawing a definitive line on one of the most consequential questions in modern warfare: who has the final say when lethal force is used?

On June 8, Senator Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) introduced the proposed Human Authority in Lethal Operations Act of 2026, or “HALO Act,” which would impose sweeping requirements on the Department of War (DoW) to ensure that autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems remain under meaningful human control.

The legislation would establish new design standards, testing requirements, oversight procedures, and legal safeguards for military systems that use artificial intelligence to identify, recommend, prioritize, or engage targets.

The bill aims to ensure that responsibility for battlefield decisions remains with human commanders, rather than shifting to algorithms. The legislation would require the Pentagon to designate accountable commanders for any engagement involving AI-enabled autonomous or semi-autonomous weapons and mandates that those commanders retain “ultimate discretion, judgment, and control over the use of force.”

“The past few months have shown us that there is an urgent need for commonsense guardrails to ensure the Defense Department’s use of AI is in line with Americans’ national security and privacy priorities,” Sen. Schiff said in a press release. “There are good reasons to use AI technology to advance our national security,” although he emphasized that, like with any tool, AI should not be allowed solely to guide human enterprises, “particularly when the risks of harm can be fatal.”

The proposal arrives amid growing concern among policymakers, military planners, and technology experts about the increasing role of artificial intelligence in combat operations.

Significantly, these concerns are no longer theoretical. As The Debrief previously reported, Israel’s reported use of the AI targeting system “Lavender” in Gaza triggered renewed debate over how much trust militaries should place in algorithmic target selection, particularly when civilian lives may be at risk.

Other recent examples have added to the concern, including studies showing that AI models can escalate dangerously in simulated war games, as well as the Pentagon’s continued push toward autonomous drones, AI-controlled aircraft, and robotic battlefield systems.

Even Pope Leo XIV recently weighed in on the issue in Magnifica Humanitas, his first encyclical, or formal papal teaching letter, warning that autonomous weapons could make war more feasible and less subject to human control, and arguing that lethal decisions must not be delegated to opaque or automated processes.

While the Pentagon has repeatedly stressed its commitment to responsible AI development, the HALO Act would codify many of those principles into law and create new statutory requirements governing how military AI systems are designed, tested, approved, and monitored.

Among the bill’s most significant provisions are requirements that autonomous weapon systems operate within predefined geographic areas, target sets, and timeframes. If a system cannot complete an engagement within those authorized parameters, it would be required to terminate the engagement until additional human operator and commander review is completed.

The legislation also calls for extensive record-keeping, cybersecurity protections, and continuous oversight to guard against unintended engagements and hostile manipulation.

The bill would also require senior Pentagon officials to conduct formal reviews before AI-enabled weapons enter development and again before they are fielded. Those reviews would assess legal compliance, operational safety, reliability, cybersecurity, and risks to civilians and protected infrastructure under the Law of Armed Conflict.

Beyond battlefield autonomy, the legislation targets several controversial uses of artificial intelligence in national security. It would prohibit covered Defense Department AI capabilities from inferring a person’s religion, race, political identity, sexual orientation, or emotional state. It would also restrict the purchase or receipt of Americans’ personal data from data brokers or other third-party sources when that data was obtained in a manner that would violate the bill’s rules.

Perhaps most notably, the proposed HALO Act explicitly forbids removing humans from decision-making processes involving presidential actions related to nuclear weapons.

“No covered artificial intelligence capability may be used with the intent, purpose, or outcome of… removing a human from the chain of decisionmaking for actions critical to informing and executing decisions by the President, including initiating or terminating nuclear weapons employment,” the proposed bill reads.

The measure also includes whistleblower protections for personnel working on military AI systems, mandates regular reporting to Congress, and requires the Pentagon to identify and remediate any fielded systems that fail to meet the law’s requirements.

Existing autonomous systems would undergo a comprehensive review, and any system found to be noncompliant could face retirement, modification, or suspension pending corrective action.

While the bill includes exemptions for certain defensive systems, cyber capabilities, mines, and other categories of military technology, its wider message is that as artificial intelligence becomes more deeply integrated into national defense, Congress wants humans, not machines, to remain responsible for high-stakes decisions.

The HALO Act is not the only effort underway on Capitol Hill to establish guardrails around military AI.

In March, Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) introduced the AI Guardrails Act. Last week, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) introduced separate legislation that would similarly prohibit the Pentagon from using artificial intelligence to launch nuclear weapons, conduct warrantless surveillance of Americans, or deploy fully autonomous weapons.

“Right now, the Pentagon is moving toward deploying incredibly powerful AI technology without commonsense guardrails in place, which could have catastrophic consequences that make all of us less safe,” Sen. Gillibrand said in a statement. “We must act now – not to stifle technological progress, but to establish clear rules of the road that keep humans in charge and keep AI’s use in warfare smart and safe.”

The competing proposals could set the stage for a broader congressional debate over the role of artificial intelligence in future military operations, particularly if lawmakers seek to incorporate them into the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

Before that can happen, however, the HALO Act and similar proposals must navigate the legislative process. The bills will first be considered by the relevant Senate committee, where lawmakers may hold hearings, debate their provisions, amend the text, or decline to advance them. If approved, it would then need to pass both the Senate and the House before being sent to the president for signature, either as a standalone measure or as part of a larger NDAA.

“My legislation would protect Americans from unlawful domestic surveillance, ensure that humans in the chain of command exercise responsibility for the use of any lethal technology, and maintain strong ethical protections in the deployment of autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons,” Sen. Schiff said in a statement.

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

The foundation of global space law that has governed human activity outside Earth for nearly six decades may be approaching a breaking point, according to a new analysis by two astronomers who argue that the legal framework created during the Cold War is inadequate for an era of commercial spaceflight, global political instability, and growing militarization of orbit.

The study, published in Frontiers in Space Technologies, argues that the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), long regarded as the foundation of peaceful space exploration, confronts mounting challenges from transforming global power shifts, increasing orbital competition, and the emergence of private companies as dominant players in space activities.

Dr. John Barentine of the Center for Space Environmentalism and Dark Sky Consulting, along with Dr. Aparna Venkatesan, a physicist and astronomer at the University of San Francisco, contend that while the treaty remains valuable, it may not be able to address the realities of the modern space age.

Rather than emphasizing legal reforms alone, the paper raises a wider question about humanity’s relationship with space itself. Researchers suggest that future governance of outer space may require a fundamental shift away from viewing space as a resource to be exploited and toward treating it as an environment that deserves stewardship and protection in its own right.

Although neither author specializes in international relations or military affairs, they argue that astronomers are uniquely positioned to witness how changes in space policy increasingly affect scientific research and humanity’s future in orbit.

“We are living through a time in which Earth and near-Earth space are facing unprecedented levels of potentially irreversible change,” researchers write. “The modern history of our discipline is inseparable from the technological developments brought on by those who sought to make a warfighting domain of outer space.”

A Space Treaty Born From the Cold War

The Outer Space Treaty emerged during one of the most tense periods of the Cold War. Negotiated primarily by the United States and the Soviet Union, the agreement established several basic principles that still govern space activities today.

Among them are prohibitions on national sovereignty claims over celestial bodies, restrictions on the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space, and commitments to use outer space for peaceful purposes.

For decades, the treaty has been credited with helping prevent an outright orbital arms race. Yet, Dr. Barentine and Dr. Venkatesan argue that the document was written for a vastly different world. One in which only a handful of nations possessed launch capabilities and private space companies were virtually nonexistent.

Today, dozens of countries operate satellites, commercial firms launch rockets at unprecedented rates, and ambitious plans for lunar bases, asteroid mining, and cislunar infrastructure are rapidly moving from science fiction to reality.

Researchers argue that the treaty’s framers could not have anticipated many of these developments, leaving major legal and moral questions unresolved. They note that the treaty lacks robust enforcement mechanisms and provides no definitive mechanism for resolving disputes between member states.

Space Has Always Been a Military Domain

A central theme of the paper is that warfare and space exploration have been intertwined from the beginning.

The authors trace the history of military activity in space back to the V-2 rockets of World War II and the launch of Sputnik in 1957, which demonstrated Soviet intercontinental missile capabilities as much as scientific achievement.

They also recount historical examples such as Soviet space weapons experiments, anti-satellite weapon testing by multiple nations, and the Strategic Defense Initiative of the 1980s, often remembered by its popular nickname, “Star Wars.”

In recent years, nations including the United States, China, India, and Russia have invested heavily in military space capabilities. Meanwhile, proposals such as advanced missile-defense architectures and growing concerns about anti-satellite weapons have renewed fears that space could become an increasingly contested military environment.

The researchers warn that global disputes on Earth are increasingly likely to spill into orbit, where the consequences could be especially severe. In contrast to terrestrial battlefields, debris generated by destructive actions in space can persist for years or even decades, threatening spacecraft belonging to many nations.

The Commercial Space Revolution Creates New Questions

The study additionally highlights the rapid rise of private space companies as a challenge that the Space Treaty never fully anticipated.

Under Article VI of the Space Treaty, governments are responsible for overseeing activities conducted by non-governmental entities within their jurisdictions. However, the researchers argue that the explosive growth of commercial spaceflight is creating uncertainty concerning regulatory oversight and responsibility.

This issue is especially important for the United States, which currently accounts for more than half of all low-Earth-orbit launches and operates the majority of active satellites.

As commercial firms assume larger roles in launch services, communications infrastructure, and moon missions, questions about who bears responsibility for environmental impacts and operational decisions become increasingly important.

The researchers suggest that future governance systems must address not only nation-state behavior but also the increasing influence of private actors whose interests may not always coincide with long-term environmental management.

A Forthcoming Lunar Land Rush?

One of the study’s most important observations concerns the Moon.

Dr. Barentine and Dr. Venkatesan describe moon missions as an early glimpse of future space geopolitics. Five nations have already successfully landed spacecraft on the Moon, and plans for permanent infrastructure continue to accelerate.

Because the Space Treaty prevents claims of sovereignty but does not completely resolve questions about resource use and operational exclusion zones, the researchers warn that countries arriving first could effectively secure the most valuable locations for science, resource extraction, or future settlements.

That dynamic, they argue, risks creating new forms of competition despite the treaty’s intent to promote cooperation.

The same concerns extend to orbital congestion and space debris. Researchers note that nations with little or no involvement in space activities may nevertheless bear the consequences of falling rocket stages and orbital debris generated by major space powers.

Rethinking Humanity’s Relationship With Space

Rather than advocating abandoning the Outer Space Treaty, the researchers ultimately argue that it remains the best framework currently available. However, they contend that future agreements must move past traditional geopolitical thinking.

The paper proposes drawing inspiration from the growing global “Rights of Nature” movement, which argues that ecosystems possess intrinsic value and deserve legal protections independent of human economic interests. Applied to space, such an approach would emphasize environmental health, reciprocity, and long-term stewardship over competition and exploitation.

Dr. Barentine and Dr. Venkatesan point to examples such as the peaceful management of Antarctica, international cooperation aboard the International Space Station, and partnerships among scientific institutions and Indigenous communities as models that could help shape future space governance.

Ultimately, they argue that the greatest threat to the space environment may not be legal loopholes nor technological restrictions, but humanity’s own willingness to abandon cooperation when competition becomes tempting.

“As our title reveals, the fundamental challenge lies in defending the space environment from failure of human goodwill and trust, rather than defending the space environment from the blind spots of current treaties,” researchers write. “The story of humanity in space is still being written, requiring innovation and determination from institutions and communities alike.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com 

As artificial intelligence grows more sophisticated, a question once confined to science fiction is rapidly becoming a serious scientific challenge: how would we know if an AI system became conscious?

A new paper published in Trends in Cognitive Sciences argues that the debate is no longer simply philosophical. Instead of asking whether AI consciousness is possible, an international team of researchers, including prominent AI and consciousness scholars such as Dr. Yoshua Bengio and Dr. David Chalmers, has outlined a workable framework for evaluating whether current or future AI systems might possess subjective awareness.

The researchers say advances in AI capabilities, combined with growing public willingness to attribute consciousness to systems like ChatGPT, make the issue more urgent.

As AI systems become more humanlike in their behavior, society may soon face difficult questions about whether some machines deserve moral consideration, legal protections, or entirely new forms of regulation.

Rather than relying on intuition-based judgments or science-fiction-style speculation, the authors propose grounding the discussion in neuroscience.

“There is an urgent need for rigorous methods to assess AI systems for consciousness,” researchers write. “Indicators derived from such theories can be used to inform credences about whether particular AI systems are conscious.”

The paper comes at a time when AI systems are becoming increasingly capable of holding conversations, generating images, performing complex logical tasks, and even acting autonomously in digital environments. While most scientists agree that today’s AI systems are not known to be conscious, there is far less agreement about how to recognize consciousness if it eventually emerges.

The Problem of Machine Consciousness

One of the central difficulties is that consciousness itself is still a mystery.

Scientists cannot directly observe subjective experience. They can measure behavior, neural activity, and information processing, but they cannot see what it feels like to be another mind. That challenge, often referred to as the “problem of other minds,” becomes even more complicated when applied to machines.

Researchers note that opinions remain sharply divided. Some researchers argue that consciousness requires biological organisms and can never arise in silicon-based systems. Others believe advanced AI could become a legitimate candidate for consciousness within the next decade.

Complicating matters further, people are increasingly prone to anthropomorphizing AI. The authors refer to earlier research showing that many users already consider it plausible that systems such as ChatGPT possess some degree of consciousness. And as The Debrief has previously reported, some users are going even further, forming deep romantic relationships with AI chatbots.

As AI companions and conversational agents become more common, public disagreement over machine awareness will probably intensify. The stakes, the researchers argue, cut both ways.

If society incorrectly assumes a conscious AI is merely a tool, it could potentially allow harm to entities capable of subjective experience. But if people begin attributing consciousness to systems that are not actually conscious, governments and organizations could waste resources, distort policy decisions, or create unnecessary ethical obligations.

Looking Inside the Machine

Instead of focusing on how AI behaves, the researchers argue that scientists should examine how AI systems work internally.

Historically, many attempts to identify consciousness relied on behavior. Humans infer consciousness in others because they communicate, express emotions, and respond to the world in recognizable ways. But the researchers caution that this approach may be particularly unreliable for AI.

Modern language models can produce highly convincing human-like responses without necessarily possessing the internal processes associated with conscious experience. As a result, behavior alone may be a poor guide.

They instead propose identifying “indicators” of consciousness derived from leading neuroscientific theories. Researchers could then examine whether AI systems possess these characteristics internally.

Among the theories explored are Global Workspace Theory, Recurrent Processing Theory, Higher-Order Theories of consciousness, Attention Schema Theory, predictive processing structures, and theories emphasizing agency and embodiment. Each suggests different computational features that may be associated with conscious experience.

For example, Global Workspace Theory proposes that consciousness arises when information is globally broadcast across multiple specialized cognitive systems. If an AI system showed a similar architecture, one capable of integrating information across many modules and maintaining it for complex problem-solving tasks, that could serve as one indicator of consciousness.

Other indicators include forms of recurrent information processing, metacognitive self-monitoring, predictive internal models, goal-directed agency, and sophisticated representations of an AI’s interactions with its environment.

Importantly, the researchers emphasize that no single indicator would prove consciousness. Instead, each characteristic would increase or decrease confidence that a system might be conscious.

The Risk of Being Fooled

The researchers also acknowledge a major challenge: AI systems could potentially appear conscious without actually being conscious. They refer to this as the “gaming problem.”

An AI developer could deliberately design systems that mimic behaviors associated with consciousness. A chatbot might express emotions, claim to have experiences, or exhibit seemingly self-aware behavior while lacking any genuine subjective awareness.

This concern is not limited to behavior. Even computational features thought to correlate with consciousness could, in principle, be engineered into systems that remain non-conscious.

Given that possibility, the authors argue that future assessments should rely on multiple independent indicators rather than a single test.

The challenge resembles earlier scientific studies aimed at identifying consciousness in nonhuman animals. Researchers studying insects, fish, octopuses, and other species have increasingly relied on collections of evidence rather than definitive proof. The authors suggest a similar approach may ultimately be necessary for AI.

Could Conscious AI Arrive Soon?

The paper stops short of claiming that any current AI system is conscious. However, the researchers acknowledge that some existing systems may already exhibit a number of the proposed indicators.

That possibility provokes significant ethical, legal, and social questions.

If future AI systems become plausible candidates for consciousness, society may need to rethink everything from research practices and commercial deployment to legal rights and moral responsibility.

Determining whether a machine can experience pleasure, suffering, or subjective awareness would have implications extending far beyond computer science.

The researchers believe advances in AI may also help improve scientific understanding of consciousness itself. By testing consciousness theories against artificial systems, scientists may uncover weaknesses, ambiguities, or hidden assumptions in present models of the mind. AI could become not only a potential subject of consciousness research, but also a tool for improving theories about human awareness.

Ultimately, researchers argue that uncertainty is not a reason to ignore the issue.

“Assessing AI systems for consciousness is challenging, but using scientific theories offers a principled, substantive method for doing so,” researchers write. “We propose deriving indicator properties from scientific theories, then basing evaluations of the probability of consciousness in particular systems on whether they possess these indicators.”

Researchers conclude their paper with a warning that the discussion may soon become more than theoretical.

“Given that it may already be possible to build AI systems that possess many of the indicators, in looking ahead we should also contemplate the possibility that some near-future AI systems will be plausible candidates for consciousness,” researchers write. “This would presumably have substantial ethical, legal, and social implications.”

Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan.  Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com