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As we approach the release of the newest iPhones, Chuck Joiner, Marty Jencius and Chuck Joiner look at how science fiction and popular culture imagined modern communication long before the technology existed. From early video-phone concepts and Dick Tracy to Star Trek, Get Smart, Space: 1999, and more, the panel examine fictional devices that anticipated smartphones, wearables, Bluetooth earbuds, video calls, authentication, mobile computing, and maybe even foreshadow what’s coming next. (Part 1)
Unforgetful isn’t a new productivity system to learn.
[…]
This is designed for a small number of short-term tasks. What do you need to do today, tomorrow, this week, or this month?
[…]
If you want tagging, folders, archives, or other ways to organize or file away tasks, this isn’t the app you’re looking for.
Unforgetful is for people who know that if they file away a task, it never gets done.
I’m an OmniFocus person. I love tagging, folders, and archives; I never want to see a notification for a to-do item. I prefer pull to push. So this is absolutely not the right tool for me. But I like the fresh thinking behind this app and how the various design choices interact to make it an opinionated tool for the right type of person.
Calendar alarms changed my life. Events without alarms don’t happen.
[…]
Most of my Reminders interaction has always been via Siri and notifications. And that fits me very well, with three major exceptions:
If I say “Remind me to buy milk,” but I forget to specify a time (or Siri misses it), Reminders will never notify me, and I’ll never check the app, so it’ll be lost.
If I inadvertently dismiss a Reminders notification without snoozing it, Reminders will never notify me about it again, so it’ll be lost.
When I do snooze a Reminders notification, which I do a lot, the snooze options suck.
He has good solutions to these and other problems. I’m tempted to try out Unforgetful just for the purported quick capture of dictated reminders, however there’s no watch app.
Listen to Accidental Tech Podcast to hear about unfortunate limitations of EventKit. Reminders itself is interesting to me in that the (private) data model is now so rich, but I’m put off by the UI, the lack of export, and the limited support for driving it from the keyboard.
With a highly elliptical orbit around Sagittarius A* of only 8.7 years, the newly named S301 comes as close as Saturn does to our Sun during its nearest approach. The research team said this close approach makes it the star with the shortest recorded orbital period and the tightest ever observed in the galaxy’s center.
Black Hole-Orbiting Star Experiencing Warped Spacetime
In a statement emailed to The Debrief, Reinhard Genzel, Director at MPE and Nobel Laureate for Physics in 2020, noted that S301’s historically tight orbit around Sagittarius A* is ten times closer to the Galactic Center than “our previous best star.”
The above image shows all known stars in the Galactic Center orbiting the central massive black hole Sgr A*. The central region is dominated by young, hot stars (blue), and a couple of cooler stars (orange/red). One of the cooler stars, S301, is approaching Sgr A* very closely, about the distance from the Sun to planet Saturn. Sgr A* itself is surrounded by hot plasma, the light of which is warped due to the black hole’s strong gravity (Credit: MPE).
Along with that record, the team said the star’s tight orbit also moves it through a region of space where the black hole’s extreme gravitational pull “drags spacetime itself.”
Genzel noted that “S301 probes spacetime in the Galactic Center,” a phenomenon that astrophysicists believe only occurs in the immediate vicinity of a massive, spinning object like a black hole.
According to the MPE team, the evidence for this warped spacetime shows up in the star’s orbital path. Specifically, they said the star’s path “deviates significantly” from the path predicted by Newton’s classical theory of gravitation.
“This is a clear sign of relativistic effects that occur only in the vicinity of a massive, rotating black hole,” the researchers explained.
Image of the Galactic Center in July 2025. The highly eccentric, tight orbit of S301 around Sgr A* (colored in white), and the orbits of five other stars in the Galactic Center are shown (Credit: MPE).
The Physics Behind the Phenomenon
To explain the evidence of warped spacetime, the MPE team said two scientific principles are at work. The first, called Schwarzschild Precession, occurs when space itself is curved around a central mass. In the case of S301, the object creating an extended field of warped spacetime around it is the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A*.
“The Schwarzschild solution of general relativity remains a useful approximation to explain the orbit of S2, even for a spinning black hole at the center of the Galaxy,” they explained.
This image shows the path of the S301 star around Sagittarius A*, the supermassive black hole at the center of our galaxy. The diamonds show measurements performed with the GRAVITY instrument at ESO’s Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). The size of Neptune’s orbit is shown as a reference. Credit: MPE
The second relativistic mechanism causing the warped spacetime drag on S301 is called the Lense-Thirring effect. Specifically, the massive black hole exerts a separate force from Schwarzschild Precession due to its rotation.
“A rotating mass, in a sense, drags the surrounding space-time along with it – much like a rotating spoon setting the water in a cup in motion,” the MPE team explained.
Unlike the more powerful effect of gravity, the team said the effect on the star caused by the rotation of Sagittarius A* is “significantly weaker and therefore more difficult to detect.” This rarity marks the team’s observation of the effect, another historic first.
“S301 is the first star to orbit directly in the region around Sagittarius A* where the frame-dragging effect is extreme,” explained Felix Mang, PhD student at MPE and corresponding author of the study. “We’re not just measuring spacetime curvature; we are measuring how it gets distorted by the rotation of the black hole itself. That is unique.”
“Explore Strange New Worlds, Seek Out New Physics, and See What Nobody Has Seen Before”
Astronomers first identified S301 in spring 2023 using the GRAVITY instrument at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) in Chile. Unlike conventional observatories, GRAVITY observes targets simultaneously with four 8-meter telescopes. The light is then combined into a single image, resulting in an angular resolution 40 times sharper than images captured by a single telescope.
“GRAVITY’s exceptional resolution makes it possible to observe stars at the center of the Milky Way on scales comparable to the size of our solar system, even when they are extremely faint,” the MPE team explained, adding that “this unprecedented combination of precision and sensitivity has made it possible to detect S301, a new and extremely faint star.”
ESO’s Very Large Telescope in front of the Galactic Center in the Milky Way. Four powerful lasers are shot into the night sky to remove disturbances of the atmosphere. These lasers are the Laser Guide Star (LGS) system as part of the GRAVITY+ project, the upgrade of GRAVITY. Credit: MPE
When discussing the next steps in the investigation of the star experiencing warped spacetime, the MPE team noted that a recent upgrade to the facility, GRAVITY+, which includes a new adaptive optics system and laser guide stars, “has increased the instrument’s sensitivity by a factor of 10 to 100.” Genzel said the upgrade will lead to even more discoveries in a relatively short time.
“Within the next decade, we will measure the black hole’s rotation directly — a milestone for general relativity,” The researcher explained.
Frank Eisenhauer, director at MPE and Principal Investigator of the GRAVITY and GRAVITY+ projects, said the opportunity to discover “the beauty of nature” in the form of S301 “is truly a dream come true.” The researcher also pointed to future observations and the new tools that will make them possible, while seemingly harkening back to a popular 1960s TV show introduction championing the exploration of space.
“GRAVITY+ and the upcoming MICADO instrument, currently being developed in an international consortium led by MPE for the ESO Extremely Large Telescope [will help us] to explore strange new worlds, seek out new physics, and see what nobody has seen before.”
Christopher Plain is a Science Fiction and Fantasy novelist and has spent the last six years as Associate News Editor and Head Science Writer at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his books at plainfiction.com, or email him at christopher@thedebrief.org.
Google’s $4.1 billion EU Android fine launches a debate over technology regulation, encryption backdoors, age verification, app-store mandates, and the political tension between the United States and Europe. Chuck Joiner, David Ginsburg, Eric Bolden, Jim Rea, and Marty Jencius also explores an unusual national time capsule, compares Evernote, Apple Notes, GoodNotes, Notion, and Notability, discusses vibe coding, and considers JustWatch as TV Time shuts down.
The Road to Macstock stops to talk to Paula Marie Davis, who previews her first Macstock appearance and the path that led her from longtime Mac user and wellness coach to launching Ditch the Dogma with Ecamm. She explains why creators need to care for the person running the tech stack, how conference inspiration can become post-event exhaustion, and how movement, time mapping, and small wellness practices can support energy, creativity, and follow-through.
A breathtaking new view of the cosmos featuring more than half a million galaxies has been released by the NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory, revealing its first LSST Camera image for scientific use.
Unveiling one of the most studied regions of space, the millions of galaxies featured in the new image were captured with Rubin’s 3.2-gigapixel LSST Camera, the largest digital camera currently in existence.
Mounted on the observatory’s 8.4-meter Simonyi Survey Telescope, the stunning new imagery captured with the LSST focuses on the COSMOS field, a region located within the Sextans constellation. Long a cornerstone of astronomical research, this region of the sky has remained an extensively studied area for more than two decades.
A Crowded View of the Cosmos
By stacking hundreds of individual observations into a single composite view, the Rubin imagery contains more than 500,000 galaxies and over 50,000 foreground stars, all packed into an unprecedented view of the Milky Way.
However, since the COSMOS field comprises regions of space much further from the crowded plane of our galaxy, it offers an unusually unobstructed view into more distant parts of the universe, allowing astronomers to look not only farther out into space, but also to peer billions of years back into the past by observing the light from ancient galaxies that is only now making its way to Earth.
Above: A portion of the highly detailed astronomical imagery obtained by the Rubin Observatory in its newly released imagery. The view above reprsents approximately 1/100th of Rubin’s field of view (Image Credit: NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory/NOIRLab/SLAC/AURA).
The result is a somewhat crowded view of our universe, showcasing the immensity of the cosmos in some of the most stunning astronomical imagery in recent memory.
The COSMOS Field
Since 2003, astronomers have focused their studies on the COSMOS field with the world’s most powerful observatories, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, the Chandra X-ray Observatory, and the Spitzer Space Telescope.
By observing spectral ranges from radio waves to X-rays, astronomers have successfully made the region one of the premier reference fields in modern astronomy for everything from galaxy formation to the birth of stars and the evolution of the cosmos.
Now, the detailed cosmic vistas being captured by the Rubin Observatory are adding a new dimension to those earlier observations. Unlike past observations, though, Rubin will repeatedly capture imagery from the same region over the course of the decade-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). By doing so, astronomers will not only be able to study distant galaxies in greater detail than ever before, but also will be treated to a view of gradual changes over time.
Through ongoing observations, detections of supernovae, variable stars, and other transient phenomena occurring deep in space will be revealed, along with the presence of fainter celestial objects such as galaxies that could not otherwise be seen without the age of composite imagery.
Rubin’s Work is Only Beginning
The newly released images are part of Rubin’s initial Early Data Preview 2 (EDP2), which comprises the observatory’s first science data release. Based on observations made with the LSST camera, the recent images offer a preview of things to come as the full 10-year LSST survey moves forward.
“The COSMOS deep image is just the beginning for Rubin in this region,” said Bob Blum, director of Rubin Observatory at NSF NOIRLab, in a statement. The observatory’s current efforts will be followed by a second phase, which is expected later this year, from which individual observations and specialized “difference images” will be produced, highlighting objects that exhibit changes across successive observations.
Image Credit: NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory/NOIRLab/SLAC/AURA
Altogether, the datasets will provide an emerging picture of the remarkable work astronomers are anticipating from Rubin, which will culminate in the most comprehensive cinematic record of the universe astronomers have ever assembled.
“Repeated visits to the field over the next few years will demonstrate the power of our survey design for discovery by providing our science community with a huge number of transient and variable objects like supernovae and other explosive transients for follow-up and detailed study,” Blum added.
Micah Hanks is the Editor-in-Chief and Co-Founder of The Debrief. A longtime reporter on science, defense, and technology with a focus on space and astronomy, he can be reached atmicah@thedebrief.org. Follow him on X @MicahHanks, and at micahhanks.com.
Ele, inclusive, foi desenvolvido por um dos cofundadores do TV Time, Antonio Pinto, que afirmou ter tentado recriar os melhores recursos do finado aplicativo (o qual foi adquirido pela Whip Media, que decidiu encerrar o serviço para focar em iniciativas de IA).
Finally, Bingers is out 🎉
Took us longer than we wanted, but we didn't want to ship something ugly or clunky.
It's a first version so there’s probably tones of things to improve, but we'll be reading every piece of feedback. Let's make it perfect together.
Levamos mais tempo do que gostaríamos, mas não queríamos lançar algo com visual ruim ou difícil de usar.
É uma primeira versão, então provavelmente há muita coisa para melhorar, mas vamos ler todos os comentários e sugestões.
Vamos deixá-lo perfeito juntos.
App Store / Play Store 👇
O Bingers conta com três componentes principais: uma ferramenta para acompanhar as séries e os filmes que você assiste ou deseja assistir, uma forma de descobrir novos conteúdos e uma espécie de rede social. Ademais, o app exibe suas estatísticas com detalhes da sua vida de espectador.
Assim como no TV Time, os fãs podem criar perfis e realizar comentários sobre séries e filmes, inclusive adicionando mídias como fotos e GIFs. Eles também podem avaliar episódios, expressar opiniões com emojis e votar em seus personagens favoritos.
Divulgação/Bingers
O app foi projetado para carregar as bibliotecas dos usuários diretamente de seus dispositivos, permitindo que ele realize o processamento pesado — como o calendário de exibição e a lista de desejos — localmente, em vez de depender dos servidores da empresa. Por fim, ele oferece uma maneira de importar dados dos arquivos do TV Time.
A group at the Institute of Science Tokyo simultaneously measured the activity of thousands of neurons in two mousebrain regions and found that the areas sometimes shared timing information but maintained more independent representations at other times. The researchers, led by Associate Professor Riichiro Hira, maintained that this flexibility enables the brain to remain stable as it adapts to changing requirements.
A Task Built to Catch the Brain Switching Modes
Hira’s team created a task to highlight this timing mystery. They trained mice to expect rewards at intervals that switched between 6 and 12 seconds, without any break to mark the end of one trial and the start of the next. Since there was no pause, the mice had to keep updating their internal sense of time throughout the experiment, instead of resetting their mental stopwatch for each new trial.
The mice eventually figured out the pattern. At first they expected a reward every six seconds even if the time they had to wait was longer than this, but by the end of the training session, their behavior indicated that they had learned to anticipate both reward intervals. This showed that the mice were capable of keeping track of both durations and of predicting which one would come next.
While the mice performed the task, the researchers recorded activity in their secondary motor cortex and the posterior parietal cortex using wide-field two-photon calcium imaging. Both regions play key roles in planning, prediction, and working memory.
Two Regions, Two Kinds of Mistakes
The neurons fired in sequence in each brain area, with different cells becoming active at different times. This sequence showed that each region was monitoring the passage of time.
The researchers also identified two kinds of errors in the neural activity. In some cases, both areas made the same mistake when assessing the passage of time. These coherent errors suggested that both regions sometimes shared the same timing drift. In other instances, only one region was inaccurate while the other remained correct. These independent errors suggested that one region could temporarily maintain a different timing representation from the other. Independent errors were more frequent than coherent ones, and this ratio remained the same in all the mice examined.
If the brain regions were just randomly out of sync, you’d expect the ratio to change. However, it didn’t, which suggests that the brain has a built-in way to balance working together and working independently.
Modeling the Switch Between Coherence and Independence
To identify this mechanism, the team built a computational model with two recurrent neural networks linked by sparse, long-range connections and exposed to the same background noise. The model produced the same 2-to-1 ratio of independent to coherent errors seen in the mice.
The model also discovered that the limited connections between the networks tended to cause them to become synchronized, while the common noise caused them to move in separate directions. Hira provided an explanation of the interaction saying, “We found sparse inter-regional connectivity promotes synchronization between the two regions, whereas widespread fluctuations prevent complete synchronization, allowing each region to preserve its own temporal representation.” Neither force takes precedence; instead, a compromise is reached which allows communication between the regions.
The findings challenge the idea that brain regions rely on a single synchronized timing system. It indicates that the brain can adjust how different parts are coordinated, rather than just turning that coordination on or off.
What a Flexible Clock Could Mean for the Brain
Hira’s team believes that there are implications beyond simple timing circuits. “In the future, our results may contribute to a better understanding of cognition, neurological disorders involving disrupted inter-regional coordination, and the development of brain-inspired artificial intelligence and robotic control systems that combine stability with flexibility,” said Hira.
This last idea may prove most important in the years ahead. Engineers building AI and robotic systems face a similar challenge: how to let separate parts work on their own when needed, yet still come back into sync. The mouse brain shows that sparse connections and shared background fluctuations can achieve this balance. This could point to a design principle that even applies to systems with no biological components.
Austin Burgess is a writer and researcher with a background in sales, marketing, and data analytics. He holds an MBA, a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, and a data analytics certification. His work focuses on breaking scientific developments, with an emphasis on emerging biology, cognitive neuroscience, and archaeological discoveries.
More light at the day’s end comes at a price: much later winter sunrises across much of the U.S. Scientists have documented consequences for public health and the economy.
Um dos jogos mais cultuados de todos os tempos, The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time — lançado originalmente em 1998 para o console Nintendo 64 —, agora pode ser jogado nativamente em iPhones e iPads.
Essa opção se tornou uma realidade graças ao projeto de código aberto HarkinianPad, do desenvolvedor Karis [@chrissotraidis]. Criado com a ajuda do Codex 5.6 Sol, ele é baseado em outro projeto que ganhou certa notoriedade há alguns anos: Ship of Harkinian — versão decompilada de Ocarina of Time capaz de rodar em dispositivos com macOS, Windows, Linux e Android — bem como os consoles Nintendo Switch e Nintendo Wii U.
Ocarina of Time, running natively on iOS and iPadOS for the first time.
Not an emulator. Ship of Harkinian has run on Windows, Linux, macOS, Switch, Wii U, and Android. Never iOS. Now it runs on iPad, with iPhone in the build too.
Segundo Karis, o jogo foi decompilado para a linguagem de programação C e, então, reconstruído como uma aplicação ARM64 (a arquitetura dos processadores da Apple) nativa. Ele também garante que nenhum elemento do hardware do Nintendo 64 é simulado pelo seu projeto, que renderiza o game via Metal — framework proprietário da Maçã.
Por se tratar de uma versão nativa, é possível colocar Ocarina of Time para rodar em widescreen, na resolução completa do iPhone/iPad e a 60 quadros por segundo. Para efeito de comparação, o console da Nintendo roda o game a 240p e com uma taxa de quadros de aproximadamente 20qps.
Configurar tudo no seu smartphone ou tablet, no entanto, não é exatamente simples, já que, para rodar, o HarkinianPad precisa, primeiro, ser assinado por uma Conta Apple ou por um time de desenvolvimento. A página do projeto no GitHub, no entanto, oferece um passo a passo (em inglês) bem completo com várias opções de instalação.
Você também vai precisar extrair a ROM 1Read-only memory, ou memória somente de leitura. de uma edição física do jogo para rodá-lo no seu dispositivo, já que o projeto não vem com uma cópia por questões legais.
Uma vez que tudo for configurado, no entanto, é possível aproveitar Ocarina of Time em sua completude, embora seja possível que você esbarre em alguns problemas de áudio dependendo do dispositivo escolhido. O HarkinianPad também conta com suporte a controles de videogame, teclados e mouses — além dos controles adaptados para a tela sensível ao toque.
This instruction is a fever dream of three weird things in sequence:
What on earth is “QuickTime”?
I am recording with a player?
Why can’t I choose the option [“New Screen Recording”] that describes exactly what I want to do?
[…]
It’s noticing this kind of complexity, places where an easy way was chosen, design debt accumulated, and things got simply too weird. Apple allowed three weird things to accumulate here.
It makes sense in terms of the history and how the technology works, but from a clean slate one might expect this functionality to be in the Screenshot app, Screen Sharing, iPhone Mirroring, or perhaps even Finder.
With software updates this fall, parents will be able to access new child safety features, including a simpler setup experience with a recommended set of essential apps, Ask to Browse, Time Allowances, and a redesigned Screen Time. These updates enhance Apple’s already industry-leading parental controls and underscore its commitment to building a safe and trusted platform for kids.
[…]
For years, Apple has integrated guidance from leading clinical and child development research, as well as online safety experts, into its products and services, and continues to help advance research into children’s digital wellbeing. Apple is working with the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) to adapt its Family Media Plan into a guide parents can reference when using Apple products. Apple also continues to collaborate with researchers to understand the impact of technology on children’s wellbeing, and is committed to advancing the science in this area.
Unanswered is whether they fixed Screen Time so that it actually works now. Currently, it’s a complete mess of settings that get lost, reports that don’t sync, and protections that manage to break sites and apps yet are also easily bypassed. Separately, it’s confusing and difficult to configure, but it seems like that part is improving. It’s hard to believe there wasn’t already a way to ask permission to access a new Web site.
To help parents manage how long children spend on allowed apps, Apple has introduced time allowances. A daily time allowance spans entertainment, games, and social media, with each category having its own allowance. Time allowances can vary by time of day and day of week as well, to keep kids from using certain apps during school and to allow more flexibility on weekends.
Does it support weekly rather than daily allowances?
Curious to see Mastodon almost unanimously hostile to the keynote parental controls bit. Maybe I’m missing something, but the vast majority of what was shown was iteration on existing features.
But here’s the thing: the Screen Time system already existed. What Apple announced isn’t so much new features as the refinement of existing ones.
[…]
There will always be edge cases. Apple must get better at understanding them. But giving parents more flexibility strikes me as preferable to the current Screen Time system and blanket government-level bans – or demanding adults constantly prove their age online to do anything.
It remains to be seen whether Apple’s changes will actually hold off any government-level bans.
Apple continues to design child safety features based on guidance from “leading clinical and child development research” and “online safety experts” while neglecting to consult independent security, privacy, and civil rights experts and advocates.
One of Apple’s tentpole features at WWDC was a ground-up makeover to Screen Time that’s designed to give parents more granular and reliable control over their kids’ device use. I got a demo of the changes while I was at Apple Park, and they’re extensive. That’s good because Screen Time has been broken in a variety of ways for a while and isn’t very flexible.
My first impressions of the changes have been positive, but it’s worth noting that I don’t use Screen Time myself and my kids are grown. Screen Time wasn’t even available when it would have been useful to my family.
However, I do remember well the days when my kids were little, and so I sympathize with Patrick Klepek who wants more. Klepek gives Apple credit for improvements in Screen Time’s UI, but wants more:
But to crystalize my requests to Apple for the future:
- A dedicated Screen Time app
- The ability to invoke Siri or other shortcut-like features to lock devices
- Granular control over extending screen time to accommodate specific requests
I’d add another request that one of the journalists made during our demo that made a lot of sense. Like me, he has three kids and wondered if he could set up a baseline set of Screen Time rules and then copy them to his other kids, making age-appropriate tweaks for each kid. Apple said that isn’t currently possible, but it’s the sort of practical, reality-based suggestion that the company should prioritize. Being a parent means a lot of things, but it shouldn’t mean being an IT manager too. For tools like Screen Time to be adopted, they need to be easy, flexible, and powerful. That’s a tough combination, but I hope it’s been made a priority internally at Apple that will result in ongoing improvements to Screen Time during this OS cycle and beyond.
A new Bayesian system called ALADYNOULLI is designed to forecast how multiple diseases unfold over time from longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) histories. The work targets a central challenge in longitudinal modelling: evaluating prediction without “information leakage,” so that future diagnoses never influence training for past timepoints. By explicitly simulating real clinical follow-up, the researchers aim to make risk estimates more trustworthy for decision-making.
In the primary assessment, ALADYNOULLI produced dynamic 1-year forecasts at 10 fixed moments during follow-up, starting at enrollment and extending to years 1 through 9. At each timepoint, models were retrained using only data available up to that moment, then tested on 1-year outcomes. The key metric was the median area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) across these dynamic evaluations, summarizing how predictive accuracy changes as new diagnoses accumulate.
The study spans 28 diseases and reports robust discrimination for several clinically important endpoints. Performance was strong for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), breast cancer, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and Parkinson’s disease, with AUC values of 0.879, 0.867, 0.801, 0.811, and 0.796, respectively. Importantly, the evaluation excluded people with prevalent disease at prediction time, aligning the comparisons with prospective risk.
ALADYNOULLI was also benchmarked against established clinical risk tools where feasible. At enrollment, static models trained only on baseline information were compared for both 1-year and 10-year horizons. While longer-term predictions naturally degraded, ALADYNOULLI retained meaningful power—for example, for ASCVD at 10 years—highlighting the advantage of learning from longitudinal EHR trajectories rather than relying solely on cross-sectional inputs.
Calibration analyses further supported reliability: predicted and observed event rates matched closely across millions of at-risk patient-time observations. The researchers report a mean squared error on calibration of 4.67 × 10⁻⁷, with mean predicted rates (5.55 × 10⁻⁴) closely tracking mean observed rates (5.45 × 10⁻⁴). This suggests not only ranking accuracy, but also quantitative risk realism.
To test whether results were driven by subtle temporal artifacts, the team ran sensitivity analyses that excluded events occurring shortly before prediction and varied washout windows. They also examined alternative horizons and a dynamic 10-year rolling interpolation strategy, which updates risk estimates as annual information becomes available. Together, these checks help confirm that temporal patterns are being learned in a causally aligned manner.
Overall, the findings position ALADYNOULLI as a clinically relevant framework for multi-disease risk forecasting, combining longitudinal EHR modelling with predictive discrimination and calibration. By rigorously preventing leakage and validating dynamic follow-up scenarios, the approach offers a pathway toward more actionable, time-aware risk prediction in real-world healthcare settings.
Subject of Research: Longitudinal EHR-based multi-disease risk prediction using Bayesian modelling and genetic/EHR integration Article Title: A Bayesian framework for longitudinal EHR and genetic discovery. Article References: Urbut, S.M., Ding, Y., Nakao, T. et al. A Bayesian framework for longitudinal EHR and genetic discovery. Nature (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10780-5 Image Credits: AI Generated DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10780-5 Keywords: longitudinal EHR, Bayesian framework, disease risk prediction, dynamic forecasting, temporal validation, calibration, AUC, ASCVD
Prime Day is still rolling, and so is our live blog. We'll bring you deals, trends, and commentary during the second day of Amazon's annual summer sale.
Prime Day is still rolling, and so is our live blog. We'll bring you deals, trends, and commentary during the second day of Amazon's annual summer sale.
A hummingbird, a beetle, and a human may inhabit the same moment, but according to new research, each species experiences that moment unfolding in a fundamentally different way.
While scientists have traditionally measured animal time perception using simple metrics like flicker detection, a new study argues that such approaches capture only a fraction of how creatures experience reality. Instead, the researchers propose that every species inhabits its own unique “timescape,” shaped by biological processes that govern how sensory information is assembled, updated, remembered, and interpreted.
Understanding these distinct temporal worlds, they say, could provide new insights into animal behavior, consciousness, and the evolution of perception itself.
Quantifying the Experience of Time
Jakob von Uexküll, an early 20th-century German zoologist, developed the idea that different animals experience reality in their own unique bubble, dictated by their biology’s unique combination of sensory inputs and processing. From the German word for “environment” or “surroundings,” he called the unique sensory experience of each animal an “Umwelt.”
In previous work, the critical flicker fusion threshold (CFFT), which measures the Hz at which a creature perceives a flickering light as steady and continuous, was used as the sole metric to quantify how animals perceive visual content over time, but the researchers say this is far too shallow a standard.
CFFTs occur in a broad range of frequencies between 4 and 500 Hz, which the researchers say could give a false impression of the rate at which experiences flow for other creatures. The authors note that “Even in humans, CFFTs are uninformative about the temporal regularities over which our perceptual mechanisms anticipate, organize, revise, or attend to perceptual inputs.”
The issue, they say, is that CFFTs only measure retinal sensitivity, not how a creature cognitively experiences timescales. This can lead to the false assumption that certain animals perceive time more rapidly than others, but that may be incorrect without accounting for the full cognitive picture.
A More Complete View
Looking beyond CFFTs alone, the team identified five Umwelts to understand the biological elements of animal experience, which include: synchronization, revision, attention, persistence, and stability. They define synchronization as how an animal puts together the pieces of a single moment, revision as how perception is updated with fresh input, attention as how long focus remains on a single thing, persistence as how long content remains after a stimulus offset, and stability as how long it takes for perception to switch.
The researchers note that various studies have shown that single species display remarkably different performance measurements across these tasks, suggesting that, rather than relying on a single metric, such as CFFTs, to define how granularly an animal perceives time, different species exhibit distinct temporal experience organizations.
According to the team, temporal illusions are important for understanding how these elements vary in different species. By understanding where perception of time goes astray between input and recognition, researchers can gain a better idea of the processes the animal uses to construct its perception of time.
Time’s Illusions
These types of sensory illusions typically occur within a 100-450 millisecond time range in humans, such as apparent motion. When an object moves relative to the eye in such a brief time, it can appear to move even when it is stationary, an experience common to both vertebrate and invertebrate species. These illusions also occur in the auditory systems and the tactile systems that interpret an animal’s nervous system signals.
The researchers say that these Umwelts could be the root of understanding the phenomenology of time perception in animals. By better understanding these metrics, researchers could develop models of how they relate to one another and possibly even uncover aspects of temporal experience that don’t exist in humans.
Altogether, the researchers say their work can be used to explore consciousness from empirical, theoretical, and philosophical perspectives, and can also contribute to ecology by helping us better understand animals and their relationships to their environment, as well as the predator/prey relationship.
Additionally, a better understanding of these temporal experiences could inform infrastructure design, such as reducing avian collisions with wind turbines by increasing blade visibility to various bird species.
Ryan Whalen covers science and technology for The Debrief. He holds an MA in History and a Master of Library and Information Science with a certificate in Data Science. He can be contacted at ryan@thedebrief.org, and follow him on Twitter @mdntwvlf.
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