The event exposed a hidden weakness in systems that depend on precise positioning.US energy department warns of potential for outages in PJM Interconnection, serving 67 million from DC to Chicago
The risk of power outages is expected to escalate across a broad swath of the United States on Wednesday as intense heat will test the capacity of electricity supplies serving millions of homes and businesses from the midwest through the mid-Atlantic.
The US Department of Energy warned of the potential for heightened blackout risks in the PJM Interconnection, the largest US electric grid, which serves 67 million people in a territory stretching from Washington DC to Chicago.
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© Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP
© Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP
© Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP
With the dog days of summer nearing an end, many are counting down the days until they can give the darker clothes in their wardrobe a bit more love. Though plenty of people flout seasonal rules and wear all-black year-round, light-colored fabrics are typically the better choice during hotter months because they reflect sunlight and can help keep us cool. This heat-reflecting logic is also partly responsible for the old decree, “don’t wear white after Labor Day!” But what if fashion choices weren’t dictated by the weather? A team of researchers from China and Australia believes they may have cracked that code, and it starts with a rich purple fabric.
The researchers, hailing from Zhengzhou University and Adelaide University, set out to create a dark-colored material that was also effective at keeping people cool. They created an entirely new fabric made of a purple metal-organic framework and zinc oxide nanoparticles. The metal-organic framework which absorbs green light from the sun and gives the purple color, while the zinc oxide nanoparticles which reflect sunlight and radiate heat away.
The material performed exceptionally well during testing. It reflected an average of nearly 88 percent of sunlight and stayed up to 11 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than conventional purple cotton outdoors. It was notably even 7.6 degrees cooler than white cotton. In a world where deadly hot summers are becoming more common, research suggests materials like this could provide outdoor workers with some much-needed relief.
“We have traditionally had to make a choice between cooling performance and appearance,” Adelaide University materials engineer Jun Ma and study co-author said in a statement. “Our research shows that we can have both. We can make a fabric that looks purple, but at the same time reflects most of the sun’s energy and releases heat very efficiently.”
The team published their findings in the journal Small.
Generally speaking, lighter colors are better bets for staying cool because they reflect more sunlight. White or unpigmented materials are the best at beating heat, whereas dark black material will feel the hottest. This same idea applies to building and construction materials as well. Purple, while obviously dark, is also a unique choice for the research because it strongly absorbs green light, which is one of the strongest parts of the solar spectrum.
Caveats are in order, though. Color isn’t the only factor in staying cool. Clothing material and fit are just as important, if not more so. Loose, breathable garments like cotton or linen allow far more airflow than tighter clothing. That’s why Bedouin nomads in the North African desert can wear mostly all black without collapsing from heat exhaustion. Still, all else being equal, lighter colors make for a cooler experience.
To create the fabric, the team combined a purple ZIF-67 metal-organic framework with zinc oxide nanoparticles. Using electrospinning, they spun the mixture into purple thermoplastic polyurethane fibers, which were then woven into fabric. They then cut the material into two-inch squares and exposed them to direct sunlight on a sunny day in Zhengzhou, China, alongside control squares of standard white and purple cotton.
The revised material reflected an average of 87.6 percent of solar radiation. In terms of overall cooling, at least in these tests, it was a resounding success. After a full day baking in the sun, the fabric remained 7.6 degrees cooler than white cotton and 11.2 degrees cooler than traditional purple cotton. The fabric also achieved these thermal gains without sacrificing practical performance, and was flexible, stretch-resistant, and highly breathable, allowing moisture to evaporate effectively rather than trapping sweat. It also maintained both its rich color and cooling properties after 50 wash cycles. Furthermore, UV accelerated-aging tests (simulating roughly 108 days of intense sunlight exposure) showed that the cooling performance did not degrade over time.
It’s still early in the process, but the team believes their new approach could make darker-colored materials less off-putting during warmer weather. While that’s potentially great news for all the goths out there, the researchers emphasize far more practical applications as well. These refined fabrics could be used to make workwear for construction workers, farmers, and others who endure long hours baking in the sun. For outdoor laborers, even modest cooling relief can make a life-saving difference.
“The long-term opportunity is to move beyond the idea that cooling fabrics have to be white,” Adelaide University Chemical Engineer PhD candidate and paper co-author Yangzhe Hou said in a statement.
This summer’s heat has moved from unpleasantly hot to deadly in many parts of the world, and it’s likely a sign of more to come. Both the fashion industry and the general public are already adapting to this brutal new reality. A 2022 New York Times report noted a marked rise in sales of shorts and sandals alongside a sharp decline in fleece and heavy outerwear in recent years, a shift attributed in part to rising global temperatures. Similarly, recent efforts to normalize wearing shorts in office settings and the gradual removal of neckties reflect a workplace culture adjusting to a hotter climate.
The new purple fabric research also joins a now lengthy list of other attempts to apply science and technology to make clothing cooler. An assortment of (often more expensive) cool-tech clothing brands with names Coolcore and Iso-Chill have gained popularity, promising to beat the heat. Kontoor Brands, which owns blue-jean giant Wrangler, even made an Insta-Cool shirt that used phase-change material initially used by NASA astronauts to stay cool.
The post New fabric stays cooler than white cotton—and it’s purple appeared first on Popular Science.
The world’s largest solar telescope and advanced computer simulations revealed vortices that are reshaping our understanding of the Sun. Across the Sun’s visible surface, hot plasma is constantly rising, cooling, and sinking. At the edges of these churning regions, researchers have now resolved tiny swirling structures that may help explain how the Sun twists, stores, [...]The Met Office has quietly axed its dedicated wind and storms chapter from its annual climate report – just as decades of data show UK wind speeds are falling. Funny that, says the Daily Sceptic's Environment Editor.
The post Cherry-Picking Met Office Drops Declining Wind Speed Chapter From Its Latest Annual Climate Report appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
Forecasting a solar storm is a little like watching a wave leave a distant coast and trying to guess when it will reach the beach. Scientists can see a coronal mass ejection (CME) leave the Sun, but its speed and shape can change as it crosses space. By the time it reaches Earth, the warning […]
The post NASA’s PUNCH Mission Cut Solar-Storm Arrival Uncertainty to 30 Minutes appeared first on Curiosmos.
Descubra como o app de weather no Windows 11 usa quase 1GB de RAM, enquanto apps Linux são muito mais leves.
O post Apps de previsão do tempo no Linux consomem muito menos RAM que o Windows 11 apareceu primeiro em Blog do Edivaldo - Informações e Notícias sobre Linux.
Satellites designed to provide internet service are now serving an unexpected second purpose: helping scientists map the nearly invisible atmosphere at the edge of space. Researchers at Kyoto University have used orbital changes from about 1,200 Starlink satellites to map Earth’s thermosphere, a thin and difficult-to-observe region of the upper atmosphere. Their analysis produced the [...]NASA says a new four-spacecraft mission has completed an early test that could make one of the hardest parts of space-weather forecasting much more precise: estimating when a solar eruption will reach Earth. In a proof-of-concept exercise announced on August 4, NASA’s PUNCH mission used continuous images of a coronal mass ejection, or CME, to […]
The post NASA’s PUNCH Mission Predicted a Solar Storm Arrival Within 30 Minutes appeared first on Curiosmos.
The city of Houston, where I live, has been ground zero for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. So far this year there have been two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, that have formed. And the centers of both have passed near or directly over Houston.
Two "strikes" in a year might seem notable, but like the middling hurricane season to date, Arthur and Bertha were both middle-of-the road tropical storms in terms of intensity.
As a resident of a coastal region prone to hurricanes, one never wants to tempt fate. And in truth, since it is only early August, the bulk of seasonal activity definitely lies ahead of us. But all indications are we can look forward to a quiet season.
© The Climate Brink
In the Bolivian Altiplano, fewer Aymara farmers are relying on local weather knowledge to schedule farming tasks, like choosing the best dates to plant crops and predicting a frost or drought. At the same time, there is growing doubt about whether these traditional indicators remain relevant today in the context of rapid social, economic, and climatic changes.
Farmers are struggling because the National Weather Service of Bolivia (SEHNAMI) fails to provide useful weather forecasts due to the geographical complexity of the Andes and a scarcity of weather stations. In addition, many farmers can’t access this information because SEHNAMI lacks local outreach programs to deliver reports directly to them. In a region with a weak technical forecasting system, local knowledge is a vital resource, but its use is declining.
Scientists in the past focused on preserving local weather knowledge or discussing how it might help communities adapt to climate change. However, very few researchers have scientifically validated local weather indicators, since doing so requires many years of historical meteorological data to establish statistical “skill” in local forecasting.
Faced with this gap, researchers in the US and Bolivia recently set out to validate indigenous indicators in 2 Bolivian municipalities: Umala in the Central Altiplano and Ancoraimes in the Northern Altiplano. To do this, they paired each traditional weather sign with a measurable variable, like temperature, that could approximate it. This approach allowed them to directly compare traditional observations with scientific data.
The researchers wanted to determine whether traditional weather knowledge is still accurate and relevant under current conditions, since validating these methods would strengthen local knowledge and benefit the schools and policies that promote it. To test this, the researchers worked with 6 Aymara communities. First, they conducted workshops with local leaders and experts to compile a set of weather-forecast indicators. Then, they surveyed 95 farmers to rank the reliability of these indicators.
Through discussions with these communities, the team identified 13 weather indicators in the Central region and 20 in the Northern region. These indicators included specific plants, animals, and physical factors like constellations or winds that the farmers used to decide when and where to plant crops, and to predict weather conditions for the next season. The researchers focused on 2 key indicators that the farmers ranked as most reliable: the presence or absence of moisture under rocks on the Fiesta de San Juan on June 24th, and the flowering patterns of specific plants, called Thola and Sank’ayu. The farmers used the San Juan indicator to predict whether the upcoming year would be rainy or dry, and the plants to determine the most favorable dates for planting to avoid agricultural risks like frosts.
Finally, the researchers compared forecasts based on these 2 signs with over 30 years of meteorological data from nearby weather stations. In both cases, they used the minimum daily temperature as the measurable way to represent these local signs scientifically. Their results showed that the minimum daily temperature on the Fiesta de San Juan could explain more than half (55.5%) of the changes in rainfall during the growing season. They also confirmed that severe frosts that “burned” Thola and Sank’ayuthe flowers were followed by periods without rain, validating the farmers’ strategy of delayed planting.
The researchers concluded that local weather indicators used by Aymara farmers are most reliable for seasonal planning, especially in predicting the start of the rainy season. They stated that this result helps legitimize traditional knowledge and empower the community. For example, these communities now hold regular meetings to discuss forecasts and share this information with their neighbors via WhatsApp groups.
However, the team acknowledged that local knowledge was limited to short-term forecasting, as it only provided warnings a few hours in advance. Farmers need alerts several days in advance to effectively reduce their vulnerability to events such as frosts or hail. For this reason, the researchers suggested that the next step will be to co-produce forecasts by combining meteorological science with traditional knowledge.
The post Testing local weather knowledge in the Bolivian Altiplano appeared first on Sciworthy.
Emergency crews say situation remains ‘dynamic’ as more than 100 firefighters battle Dunwich Heath blaze
A wildfire near Britain’s biggest nuclear power station has caused “total devastation” to one of the UK’s most important landscapes, as fire crews said the situation remained “dynamic”.
More than 100 firefighters have been battling the blaze on Dunwich Heath, near Leiston, on the Suffolk coast since Wednesday evening. The fire service said on Friday afternoon the situation was stabilising but remained a “major incident” that was “dynamic and potentially changeable”.
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© Photograph: Humphrey Nemar/PA
© Photograph: Humphrey Nemar/PA
© Photograph: Humphrey Nemar/PA
In May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades pushed the Northern Lights far enough south to become visible across much of the UK and beyond. Now, a study that appeared in Royal Society Open Science reveals that the incident also exposed important gaps in how the UK monitors and prepares its power grid, satellites, and aviation for future extreme space weather.
The storm reached a G5 rating, which is the highest level on the geomagnetic storm scale used by NOAA, as a result of five coronal mass ejections reaching Earth within a period of two days. Researchers with the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) stated that although the storm caused only relatively minor disruption, it revealed shortcomings in the UK’s capacity to monitor and prepare for more severe space weather events.
The SEIEG then made 14 recommendations to the UK government addressing matters such as grid monitoring, satellite operations, and space weather forecasting. Richard Horne, chair of SEIEG and head of space weather at the British Antarctic Survey, recently gave a presentation on the findings at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting in Birmingham.
Researchers estimate that the May 2024 storm was a one-in-13-year event. By contrast, a Carrington-class storm, like the 1859 event that defines the standard for extreme space weather, has about a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. This means that a much more disruptive storm is still possible. The SEIEG report uses the 2024 storm as a practical example to assess how prepared the UK is for a more severe event.
“The Northern Lights were the most visible sign of the May 2024 storm, but they were only one part of a much broader space weather event that tested the UK’s critical infrastructure. The storm highlighted where we need better monitoring, better forecasting and more research so we’re prepared for a more severe event in the future,” Horne said.
Geomagnetic storms create electric fields at Earth’s surface that can drive geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) through long conductive systems, including power transmission networks. High levels of GICs can overheat transformers, disrupt their normal function, and in severe cases cause damage that may lead to failures across parts of the power grid.
Currently, there are no GIC monitors in operation in England or Wales. The SEIEG report recommends establishing a network of monitors to assess how much current various transformer designs can tolerate before sustaining damage.
The report cites New Zealand as an example of effective monitoring. Since it is at a similar geomagnetic latitude, the country faces similar space weather risks, and its grid operators monitor around 93 transformers across 28 substations. Unlike in England and Wales, where monitoring is absent, these operators have verified their models using actual measurements and implemented operational mitigation procedures during the May 2024 storm.
The storm also affected satellites in orbit. Almost 5,000 satellites adjusted their orbits during the storm. Satellites licensed in the UK saw their number of collision warnings rise by 35%. Since there are now so many objects in low-Earth orbit, a serious storm could raise the risk of collisions, possibly resulting in debris and causing additional incidents.
SEIEG also recommends improving forecasts of coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle events to provide two to three hours of warning before severe geomagnetic storms reach Earth. Improved forecasts could allow grid operators, satellite controllers, and airlines to take protective measures before severe geomagnetic storms arrive.
“One of the biggest lessons from the May 2024 storm is that we still have important gaps in our monitoring and understanding of how severe space weather could affect UK infrastructure,” said Horne. “We were fortunate that this was not a one-in-100-year event. We now have an opportunity to strengthen our monitoring, improve our forecasts and make sure the UK is better prepared before a much larger storm occurs.”
The 14 recommendations are now under review by the UK government. Whether these steps will be taken before a Carrington-scale storm occurs remains uncertain. With this extreme class of storms remaining a realistic possibility, the researchers argue that improving monitoring and forecasting now could reduce the impact of a future extreme event.
Austin Burgess is a writer and researcher with a background in sales, marketing, and data analytics. He holds an MBA, a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, and a data analytics certification. His work focuses on breaking scientific developments, with an emphasis on emerging biology, cognitive neuroscience, and archaeological discoveries.
Last April, Brazilian officials notified Apple and Google over an alleged lack of age controls in betting apps on their respective app stores.
Brazilian users browsing the App Store rankings in categories such as Navigation, Travel, and Weather have noticed a growing number of poorly made games appearing among the top results, many of them featuring AI-generated illustrations of animals as their app icons. Many carry an AL age rating, making them available to users of all ages, including children.
As it turns out, these are so-called jacket apps, which are just a front for hidden betting and gambling apps.
[…]
The repository also includes explicit instructions intended to prevent the apps from being flagged as suspicious during App Store review. These include giving each app uniquely named startup and remote-configuration codes, making it harder for reviewers to identify them as part of the same group.
Ironically, the App Store’s own recommendation system appears to have little trouble grouping the apps together, as the “You Might Also Like” section on several of these apps points users toward other suspicious apps more frequently than they point to genuine apps.
Obviously the main problem is that these apps disguise themselves Trojan Horse-style, and slip through App Store review undetected. I don’t think it’s reasonable to think App Store review could catch every attempt at this sort of thing though — if the horses are disguised well-enough, some of them are going to slip through. That’s actually fine.
I agree that it’s unreasonable to expect App Review to catch all those, but then Apple should not be pretending that it can. This was all obvious from day one. The public perception of App Review is completely at odds with what it actually can and does do.
But the first example 9to5Mac cites isn’t well disguised at all. What sense does it make that “PotatoPlot Puzzle” — a game featuring a rabbit potato farmer — is a weather app? How is that not a red flag right there?
[…]
I always mention that the point of such a squad shouldn’t be to make the App Store 100 percent scammer-free — which I believe is an impossible goal that would set the team up for failure. The point should be only to make the App Store free of successful scams. Focus on the most popular apps and the most lucrative apps.
The App Store is more than 18 years old. The idea of patrolling the top charts probably occurred to Apple before it even shipped. They just don’t want to do it.
Apple only took 24 hours to approve my iOS app update that crashed instantly on launch. Such a blessing to have that extra level of reliability and security that only a manual review process can provide 🙏
Incidentally, the crash was due to a missing dylib - something that could easily have been detected by the automated scan process, if only that scan were designed to protect users’ and developers’ interests instead of Apple’s.
There is simply no other way to maintain a modern, healthy software ecosystem without making sure that apps that have been around for 7 years and 20 major versions can’t get a build looked at within 48 hours. There’s no other way. Probably needs to be longer, honestly.
I had to file an Expedited Review Request because this update is a legitimate emergency. Four hours later, App Review rejected the build because they didn’t follow the first sentence of the testing instructions (which haven’t changed in 7 years). Back to Waiting for Review! There’s no other way.
Previously:
Update (2026-07-30): Kyle Hughes:
We got rejected in the Expedited Review again, this time for not having an account deletion feature. Except we do, and it’s one button press away from the screen that the reviewer was on. And it has always existed. Is this how the expedited review works? Malicious incompetence?
Update (2026-07-31): Kyle Hughes:
If you were wondering how long one of the “you can ask us to approve this build and can fix this issue in the next release” App Review errors takes to resolve when you’re in the Expedited Review Queue… me too! So far, 18 hours. (Ignoring the fact that we have the feature the rejection was for.)
Certainly it means “within a week,” right? “Within a month,” please? “In your lifetime,” I can only hope.
Planetary researchers have found the first evidence that bursts of energetic particles from the Sun could warm the lower atmosphere of Mars during massive dust storms, hinting at an unexpected link between space weather and Martian climate.
The post Space Weather May Warp Martian Weather during Dust Storms, Planetary Scientists Suggest appeared first on Sci.News: Breaking Science News.
Neso denies allegations aired by Tory MP that staff took part in cover-up over decision-making in heatwave
In a control room in Wokingham, Berkshire, staff work around the clock, minute by minute, to align Great Britain’s fluctuating power supplies with its ever-changing demand.
However, as households struggle to adapt to soaring summer temperatures, staff at the government-owned National Energy System Operator (Neso), tasked with keeping the lights on, have faced the kind of challenge usually reserved for the country’s coldest winter nights in recent weeks.
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© Photograph: Evening_T/Getty Images/iStockphoto
© Photograph: Evening_T/Getty Images/iStockphoto
© Photograph: Evening_T/Getty Images/iStockphoto
Pressure is now much easier to read. A new Pro trend strip under the chart shows whether pressure is holding steady, rising, or falling. Fast changes stand out with stronger marks and colour, so you can spot a front moving in sooner - useful for hiking, sailing, flying, fishing, or weather-sensitive heads and joints.
You can now also design the chart more freely with the new theme editor. Mix palette, style, sky detail, and accent colour, or start from a preset, to make Weathergraph fit your style.
This is an example of what it looks like:
Previously:
This year's El Niño will almost certainly become the strongest ever recorded, an analysis by a prominent climate researcher has warned. Though other scientists have cautioned that it's still too early to say what it will unleash.
Dynamical models now assign a 90% chance of the 2026-2027 El Niño being an all-time record event, sending temperatures in the Pacific Ocean up to around 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, according to an analysis by Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Seventh Assessment Report.
As the warm phase of a multiyear natural climate pattern, the El Niño could bring unprecedented temperature extremes to an already-warming world. The natural climate pattern is infamous for boosting global temperatures and fueling disruptive weather events such as floods and droughts.
A strong El Niño doesn't guarantee more severe weather impacts. The current El Niño models are also imperfect predictions of what's to come, and we won't know the true nature of this El Niño event until it peaks, likely later this year. However, forecasters have been warning of potentially supercharged El Niño conditions for months, and as more data emerges, there are more reasons to prepare.
According to projections by the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Niño — officially declared on June 11 — is on track to rapidly develop into a "strong" event between July and September. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center now predicts a more than 80% likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions taking hold by the end of the year, ranking this El Niño event among the largest in the historical record.
"These are striking forecasts," Emily Black, a professor of terrestrial processes and climate at the University of Reading and a senior scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science in the U.K., told Live Science in an email. "El Niño forecasts always come with uncertainty, but the level of agreement between models at this time of year, combined with the observed warming already underway in the tropical Pacific, means this should be taken very seriously."
"The important point is that a very strong El Niño would substantially shift the odds of damaging weather in many parts of the world, particularly in the Global South — with severe impact on livelihoods," Black added.
The International Rescue Committee, a humanitarian organization, has warned that the intense El Niño conditions threaten to unleash severe flooding and drought across East Africa and Asia, hitting some of the most vulnerable communities, Al Jazeera reported Tuesday (July 14).
El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/ASC46wKOn4July 9, 2026
During El Niño, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream south. In the U.S., this typically brings warmer, drier conditions to the Northeast, while the Gulf Coast and Southeast experience an increased risk of flooding. Globally, the net result of the warmer waters is more heat in the atmosphere, on top of the temperature rise from human-driven global warming.
"El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but it is now happening against the backdrop of a much warmer planet," Black said. "That matters because a strong El Niño releases heat and energy into an already warmed world."
"This does not mean every impact can be attributed simply to El Niño or simply to climate change," Black added. "The two interact. El Niño can load the dice towards drought in some regions, flooding in others, marine heatwaves, disrupted monsoons and unusually high global temperatures. Climate change makes many heat extremes more severe and can intensify heavy rainfall because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture."
The last El Niño event occurred between 2023 and 2024. Both years broke temperature records, with 2024 becoming the hottest on record and the first to breach the 1.5-degree- Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming limit set by the 2016 Paris Agreement. The current El Niño is forecast to be more intense than the one in 2023 and 2024, with the projected "very strong" status putting it in a different class of severity.
Hausfather's analysis reports that there's around a 90% chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, with data from multimodel forecasts suggesting that it may obliterate the previous record.
"With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year's El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began — it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin," Hausfather wrote in The Climate Brink Substack post published Monday (July 13).
NOAA recognizes El Niño conditions when the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is at least 0.5 C (0.9 F) warmer than the historical average, while wind, surface pressure and rainfall in the region are also consistent with El Niño conditions. The El Niño is then categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. A very strong El Niño (above 2 C, or 3.6 F, warmer than the historical average) is often nicknamed a "super" El Niño, though it's not a scientific term.
The July models suggest that temperatures will likely sail past 2 C above average in the coming months and could potentially even exceed 3.5 C (6.3 F) above average by the end of the year. This is based on newly introduced sea surface temperature forecasts that account for rising background temperatures that can inflate El Niño warming figures. In the traditional and most widely used indices, the temperature-anomaly forecasts cluster closer to 4 C (7.2 F), with some even exceeding 4 C.
In The Climate Brink Substack, Hausfather noted that the multimodel median for the event's peak is currently forecast at 3.6 C (6.5 F), or around 0.8 C (1.4 F) hotter than the prior record holder (2.75 C, set in the 2015-2016 El Niño event). Hausfather wrote that around 91% of ensemble members (individual computer models) have this El Niño exceeding the 2015-2016 record at their peak — around 77% likelihood in the newly introduced indices.
However, Black stressed that the models are still estimates, and not guarantees.
"It is certainly plausible that this could become a record-breaking El Niño, and the latest forecasts make that a real possibility rather than a remote one," Black said. "However, I would still be cautious about treating any probability estimate as a certainty."
"There are two reasons for caution," she added. "First, this event has not peaked yet, and El Niño events usually reach their maximum strength later in the year. Second, 'strongest ever recorded' depends on the index, dataset and baseline used."
The most severe El Niño events have left a trail of devastation in their wake. For example, the 2015-2016 El Niño saw a record-breaking hurricane season in the central North Pacific, severe drought in the Caribbean and Ethiopia, and, of course, abnormally hot global temperatures, according to NOAA's Climate.gov. If the forecasts pan out, the current El Niño will match or exceed the 2015-2016 event, as well as an even more infamous super El Niño that occurred between 1877 and 1878, long before modern recordkeeping of El Niño began in 1950.
The 1877-1878 event likely fueled an extreme drought that fed into the 1876-1878 global famine, which ultimately killed more than 50 million people — making it among the worst humanitarian crises in history. However, the disaster was far from just an environmental one, with extractive colonial agricultural policies helping to create conditions for a massive humanitarian crisis. Nonetheless, the famine highlights what can happen when environmental and socioeconomic factors converge.
Even though the world has changed a lot since the 19th century, experts have said a super El Niño could still cause severe shocks to our food systems. This is especially true at a time when researchers say food insecurity is not just confined to low-income countries and that climate change is already pushing agricultural systems to the brink.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle triggers a warm El Niño and then a cold La Niña roughly every two to seven years, with each phase typically lasting around nine to 12 months. Carbon Brief has predicted that 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record, with the intensifying El Niño increasing the likelihood that 2027 will be the warmest year ever recorded.
The strength of an El Niño event does not necessarily correspond to the size of its influence or impact, according to the Climate Prediction Center. More severe events typically, but not always, increase the certainty of expected impacts. Black believes the impact of an El Niño event is more important than where it ranks in the observational record.
"Records are compelling, but impacts are what matter," Black said. "Even if it falls just short of a record, a very strong El Niño can still have serious consequences. Finally, these forecasts are concerning, but they are also useful: they give societies time to anticipate possible impacts and act before the worst effects are felt."
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