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In a groundbreaking study published in Nature Climate Change, scientists have unveiled compelling evidence that human-driven sea-level rise has drastically intensified the frequency of extreme coastal flooding events since the dawn of the 20th century. This new research, led by Dangendorf and colleagues, synthesizes extensive tide-gauge data with historical climate model simulations, revealing that the incidence of once-rare 1-in-100-year coastal flooding events has surged approximately twelvefold on a global scale. The findings highlight an unsettling reality: anthropogenic radiative forcing has quadrupled the likelihood of such extremes, fundamentally reshaping the landscape of coastal hazard risk worldwide.

For decades, the debate around the extent to which human activities have contributed to sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding has been mired with uncertainties. Previous studies often grappled with limited observational records or lacked the comprehensive modeling necessary to isolate human influence from natural variability. The novel detection and attribution framework employed in this study marks a significant advancement by bridging long-term tide-gauge observations—some extending back over a century—with sophisticated simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This approach allowed the researchers to untangle complex interactions and discern the fingerprints of anthropogenic climate forcing with unprecedented clarity.

The critical driver identified by the team is relative sea-level rise, a multifaceted phenomenon encompassing both ocean surface height changes and vertical land movements relative to the coast. Since the 1960s, this relative sea-level rise has been overwhelmingly dominated by human-induced factors, principally the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that trap heat and accelerate melting of ice sheets and glaciers. As sea levels climb, coastal areas become increasingly susceptible to flooding from storm surges, high tides, and extreme weather events that were historically rare or even unheard of.

Statistically, this change translates into dramatic shifts in risk profiles: an event that would have been expected once every century historically now occurs on average every eight years globally. In some regions, the frequency increase is even more pronounced, reflecting the heterogeneous nature of sea-level rise and the role of localized factors, such as land subsidence or ocean currents. This amplification of coastal extremes poses grave implications for millions of people living in low-lying coastal zones, threatening infrastructure resilience, habitability, and economic stability.

Furthermore, while natural variability—cycles such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or decadal ocean oscillations—continues to influence regional patterns of extreme sea-level frequency, the study finds this factor has become secondary along the majority of the world’s coastlines. The persistent upward trend linked to human-induced climate change overrides traditional weather and climate fluctuations that once dominated flood risk patterns. This paradigm shift underscores the urgency for integrating anthropogenic impact assessments into coastal planning, adaptation strategies, and disaster risk management frameworks.

Importantly, the researchers emphasize the robustness of their attribution method. By leveraging both historical forcing scenarios and single-forcing climate experiments, they effectively isolate the role of anthropogenic emissions in driving observed changes relative to natural external forcings alone. This dual-layered methodological approach lends high confidence to the assertion that the quadrupling of extreme coastal flooding frequency can be directly ascribed to human actions rather than fluctuations within natural climate variability.

The study’s implications extend beyond scientific understanding to the realm of public policy and coastal resilience investments. Coastal communities and governments must recognize that reliance on historical flood records for designing infrastructure or emergency response plans is increasingly inadequate under changing climatic conditions. Instead, adaptation measures must be informed by updated probabilistic assessments that reflect the new normal of elevated flood risk driven by irreversible sea-level rise trends.

Moreover, the multidisciplinary nature of the research highlights the necessity of fostering collaboration between oceanography, climatology, engineering, urban planning, and social sciences to address these daunting challenges holistically. Translating these findings into actionable strategies necessitates sharing data, predictive models, and risk communication tools across sectors to enhance community preparedness and reduce vulnerability.

While the findings are sobering, they also provide a critical lens through which future mitigation efforts can be evaluated. The clear attribution of increased coastal extremes to anthropogenic radiative forcing underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stem the rate of sea-level rise. Without substantial global mitigation and adaptation measures, the frequency and severity of coastal flooding are poised to escalate further, amplifying humanitarian and economic costs.

This research represents a decisive step in bridging observational science with climate modeling to elucidate the tangible impacts of climate change on society. By quantifying how past emissions have already altered coastal flood hazard, it lays a factual foundation for reinforcing scientific consensus, informing legal frameworks, and guiding international climate policy negotiations. The real-world consequences are evident on shorelines worldwide: what were once millennia-scale flood events now disturb communities every decade.

The multidisciplinary approach also exemplifies how integrating historical tide-gauge records with advanced climate models can serve as a blueprint for detecting and attributing other climate extremes, such as heatwaves or droughts. This opens pathways for further studies that refine our understanding of anthropogenic influence across diverse environmental domains, fostering more precise risk assessments and adaptive responses.

As sea-level rise is an inherently irreversible process on human timescales due to the inertia of ice sheet dynamics and ocean warming, the findings provide a stark warning: coastal adaptation efforts are not just a future necessity but a pressing present-day imperative. Infrastructure, ecosystems, and human livelihoods require immediate attention to enhance resilience against the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme flooding events.

Intriguingly, the researchers note that while natural variability modulates regional sea-level extremes, the dominant influence of anthropogenic factors means that future projections must prioritize human emissions pathways in determining coastal risk profiles. This insight is critical for scenario planning, helping policymakers balance mitigation commitments with targeted adaptation investment.

The study also implicitly raises questions about climate justice and equity. Coastal flooding disproportionately affects marginalized and economically vulnerable populations who often lack resources to adapt effectively. By clarifying the human role in escalating risk, the research bolsters the rationale for equitable climate finance, resilience building, and inclusive policymaking that considers vulnerable communities on the frontlines.

Looking ahead, continued monitoring of tide-gauge networks combined with evolving climate model ensembles will be essential to track ongoing changes and refine attribution analyses. Enhanced granularity in data and simulations will improve local-scale predictions, making it possible to tailor adaptation strategies to specific coastal contexts while maintaining awareness of the global trend driven by human influence.

The transformative increase in the frequency of historic extreme sea-level events also poses profound questions for insurance industries, urban planners, and emergency services. Accurate quantification of risk escalation empowers these sectors to re-evaluate existing standards and contingency plans, potentially prompting innovation in flood defenses, land-use policies, and disaster preparedness protocols.

In conclusion, this penetrating investigation unequivocally establishes that human-induced climate change has already entrenched itself as a dominant driver of coastal flooding extremes worldwide, quadrupling the frequency of events that were once exceedingly rare. The study’s convergence of empirical data and model simulations offers undeniable proof that anthropogenic sea-level rise is reshaping coastal hydrodynamics and hazard exposure. Amid escalating climate threats, these insights compel a rethink of how societies anticipate, prepare for, and mitigate coastal flood risk in a warming world.

Subject of Research: Human-induced sea-level rise and its impact on the frequency of extreme coastal flooding events.

Article Title: Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900.

Article References:
Dangendorf, S., Sun, Q., Maduwantha, P. et al. Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0

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A warming climate has been helping drive a global rise in sea levels. A new analysis now finds that hundreds of major studies missed just how much sea levels have risen. Past estimates were too low, the new study shows. On average, true sea levels are 20 to 30 centimeters (8 to 12 inches) higher than what past studies reported.

This means that the toll of future sea level rise is even greater than expected.

Katharina Seeger and Philip Minderhoud did the research. They work at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. These physical geographers evaluated data from 385 global and regional studies. All had been published between 2009 and 2025.

Some 99 percent of the studies had incorrectly estimated ocean height, they found. And 45 of the studies were used a few years ago in a major report. It was issued by a global panel of climate experts convened by the United Nations.

Knowing the rate of ocean rise is crucial for coastal planners around the world. It helps them predict when sea water will start to flood — and permanently cover — large swaths of land. The errors in past studies, the researchers say, mean that coastal land may disappear faster than expected. In some places, it could vanish as much as a century sooner than thought.

The team shared its findings in the April 16 Nature.

A one-meter (39-inch) rise in sea level — which could happen within a century — could submerge an area more than 30 percent bigger than scientists thought. That would take away land from 77 to 132 million people. That’s 48 to 68 percent more people than previous estimates.

Sea level rise is slow. But it’s also dangerous if you ignore it, says Anders Levermann. “That’s basically what we’ve done, unknowingly,” he says. “These estimates now tell us that we are much further in the future than we thought we were.” A climate scientist, Levermann works at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany.

One problem: geoids

Some of the analyzed studies had focused on sea level rise. Others had focused on storm surges, tsunamis or other coastal hazards. And a common mistake emerged in nine out of every 10 of the studies, the researchers say.

It had to do with the type of data used.

Researchers usually gauge coastal flood hazards by comparing a site’s land elevation to sea levels. Ideally, those sea levels come from actual measurements. Those can come from satellites. Or they could be from tidal gauges, ocean buoys or other tools.

But few of the studies Seeger and Minderhoud reviewed had included such direct sea-level measurements. Instead, the studies had relied on wonky, digital shapes called geoids (GEE-oids).

Geoids are imaginary shapes. They’re meant to approximate Earth’s sea level. They don’t show big ice sheets or giant mountain peaks. Instead, they show Earth as a sort of irregular ball of water with an undulating surface.

But there are two key problems to using geoids to gauge sea level, Seeger and Minderhoud say. First, geoids can be off by several meters. Gravity data are key for making geoids. So geoids are less accurate where gravity data are poor. Those areas include the Global South.

Second, geoids do not account for many other things that can affect sea level. These include ocean circulation and currents. Winds, tides and water temperatures also play roles.

It’s possible to correct for these geoid problems, Minderhoud said at a March 3 news briefing. But the new research shows that few scientists studying coastal hazards make those fixes.

Geoid assumptions led to errors in 90 percent of the reviewed studies. Another 9 percent did not align measurements of sea level and land elevation properly. Fewer than one percent of the studies properly aligned such data, Seeger said.

Average errors varied by region

To see how far off sea-level numbers had been in most studies, Seeger and Minderhoud turned to satellite data. These data measured sea-surface heights globally. Compared to these, geoid-based studies had underestimated coastal sea level by an average of 24 to 27 centimeters (about 10 inches).

Errors were more than three times that size for some places. Among these were parts of Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

For a few places, estimates of sea levels had actually been too high. These regions included the northern Mediterranean and Antarctica.  That was also true for some islands in the Atlantic and Pacific.

Study estimates were closest for eastern North America and northern and western Europe. Overall, though, most measured sea levels were higher than what past studies had published.

This means the advance of the oceans “is even worse than what’s been reported,” says Patrick Barnard. A coastal geologist, he works at the University of California, Santa Cruz. The new work, he says, is important for planners. It suggests they should be cautious when using findings from big-picture studies to guide local efforts to adapt to sea level rise.

To help future studies, Seeger and Minderhoud have publicly shared coastal sea-level data. These include the most recent actual measurements.

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In December, the Trump administration abruptly announced it would shut down the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a Boulder, Colorado-based facility that helps researchers perform studies of weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and more. The news came as a shock, given that the government had never identified serious deficiencies in the management of NCAR and its associated supercomputing center in Wyoming.

Nevertheless, the government ordered the University Consortium for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages NCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation, to help it prepare to transfer the Wyoming facility to a different operator. UCAR sued the government and, on Monday, won a preliminary injunction that places the transfer of the facility on hold.

Is that your final decision?

NCAR is what is termed a "Federally-Funded Research and Development Center" meant to support researchers in the academic community. Rather than having its own research agenda, it provides facilities, equipment, and expertise to support projects that are too large or complex for researchers to pursue on their own. NCAR has been around since the early 1960s and has become a critical resource for the global atmospheric science community.

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