With the iPhone Duo, Apple has entered the foldable smartphone market years after Samsung, Google, Huawei, and others, and it is doing so with a $1,999 book-style device designed less as a novelty and more as a bid to change what mainstream buyers expect from a phone.

The iPhone Duo, unveiled September 9th, folds from a compact 5.4-inch outer display into a 7.6-inch inner screen — Apple’s largest iPhone display yet — while keeping the same aspect ratio on both panels. Closed, it is roughly passport-shaped. Opened, Apple says it is the company’s thinnest iPhone at 5.2 millimeters. Preorders begin October 16th, with stores getting the device on October 23rd.

That timing and price put the Duo in the same neighborhood as Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Google’s latest Pixel foldable, rather than in a category of its own. Foldables still account for only a sliver of global smartphone shipments. The question hanging over the launch is whether Apple’s combination of hardware polish, iOS software and ecosystem pull can expand that niche.

As Bloomberg News’ Edward Ludlow writes, that is precisely the test Apple is setting for itself: whether the Duo can shift consumer tastes, not merely win over people who already buy folding phones.

Apple spent years studying the complaints that have kept foldables on the fringe — visible creases, fragile hinges, awkward software and devices that feel like two phones taped together. The company is pitching a titanium hinge with more than 100 precision parts, a nano-texture finish meant to make the crease less noticeable, IP68 dust and water resistance, and an iOS experience built around split apps, fluid open-and-close transitions and later Apple Pencil support.

New CEO John Ternus has called the Duo the most transformational change to iPhone since the original, arguing that hardware and software engineered together can redefine what a foldable is for. Marketing chief Greg Joswiak has been blunter about rivals: existing foldables, in Apple’s view, were not particularly inspiring.

The compromises are still visible. The Duo is heavier than some Android competitors. It uses a side-button Touch ID rather than Face ID, drops a physical SIM slot and lacks the variable-aperture camera of the iPhone 18 Pro models. Higher storage configurations climb well above $2,000.

Those trade-offs make the first Duo look like a halo product — a statement device for early adopters and Apple loyalists rather than an immediate volume seller. Analysts and industry veterans have long argued that new form factors often need two or three generations before they become mass-market. Apple’s bet is that its installed base, developer influence, and reputation for finishing products can compress that timeline.

If the Duo works, Ludlow writes, it will not just give Apple a new high-end SKU. It will signal that foldables have left the enthusiast ghetto. If it remains a pricey curiosity, the category will stay what it has been for most of the past seven years: impressive, expensive and still waiting for the mainstream.
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MacDailyNews Take: Apple will sell every single iPhone Duo it has already made and can make for the foreseeable future.

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Global foldable smartphone shipments are on track to pass a major milestone by the end of 2026, with lifetime volumes expected to exceed 100 million units, according to Counterpoint Research. That would come in the eighth year of the category, which first reached commercial devices in 2019.

Foldables still make up only about 2% of the overall smartphone market, leaving substantial room to grow. Counterpoint says demand should accelerate after Apple’s expected entry, alongside stronger interest in wider book-style devices from Samsung and Huawei. Global foldable shipments are forecast to rise 37% year over year in 2027, the fastest growth rate since 2022. With that pace, the next 100 million cumulative units could arrive within about three years.

Apple is expected to make an immediate impact even with a short selling window in 2026. Counterpoint forecasts up to 6 million foldable iPhone shipments this year, giving Apple about 25% of the global foldable market and the No. 2 position behind Samsung at 38% and ahead of Huawei at 22%. The firm says that ranking would be significant so soon after Apple enters the category.

Supply, not demand, is expected to cap the early ramp. Initial production of Apple’s first foldable iPhone is likely to stay limited after this week’s expected unveiling, with sales and deliveries building gradually as availability expands by market. Associate Director Liz Lee said those constraints keep the upper end of the 2026 forecast at 6 million units, but that Apple can still take a quarter of the market and move straight into second place.

A full year of Apple sales is then expected to be a major driver in 2027. Counterpoint forecasts Apple’s foldable shipments will more than double and its share will reach 40%. Samsung remains the innovation leader in the category, while Huawei continues to be a key force in China with a wide range of designs. Other brands, including Xiaomi, Motorola, HONOR, Google, vivo and OPPO, are also preparing new foldables, including wider-format models.

Research Director Tarun Pathak said Apple’s entry will increase competition at the premium end, but the category is still small enough that there is room for several vendors to grow. The broader mix of designs and brands, he said, should help the market expand over the next few years.

Counterpoint argues the longer-term test will be user experience, not just hardware novelty. Price points remain about three times those of conventional slab smartphones, and mass-market adoption is still some years away. For now, the firm sees foldables splitting between productivity and content-consumption use cases as more premium buyers enter the segment.
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MacDailyNews Take: Apple will quickly dominate the foldable smartphone market.

Apple’s first foldable iPhone is projected to ship more than 10 million units in its debut year, according to research firm IDC.

Apple will sell every foldable iPhone it can make next year and still have people lining up to buy.

Apple wasn’t first with fingerprint recognition, they were the first to do it right with Touch ID. Apple wasn’t first with facial recognition, they were the first to do it right with Face ID. Apple wasn’t first with contactless payments, they were the first to do it right with Apple Pay. — MacDailyNews, February 27, 2019

If and when Apple debuts a foldable iPhone, they’ll be showing the world how it should be done and what to copy going forward. As usual. — MacDailyNews, February 27, 2019

As with fingerprint and facial recognition, when Apple debuts a foldable iPhone, then foldable smartphones will have been done right. — MacDailyNews, January 17, 2019

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The post Apple’s foldable iPhone set to grab 25% share in 2026, 40% in 2027 as foldables pass 100 million cumulative shipments appeared first on MacDailyNews.