The EU has claimed "insurance as usual is not sustainable" in the era of climate change, but it's really just an excuse for Brussels to build a climate protection racket, warns Dr Tilak Doshi.

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Beneath every step we take, soils hold one of the planet’s largest reservoirs of carbon, a vast, slow-moving bank of organic matter that quietly regulates how much of the world’s carbon stays locked away and how much escapes into the atmosphere as greenhouse gas. Now a sweeping new review warns that climate-driven extremes, droughts, floods, and wildfires, are rewriting the rules of that subterranean economy in ways that conventional models and land-management practices have not yet caught up with. The analysis, led by environmental scientist Nanthi Bolan of the University of Western Australia and colleagues, including a corresponding authorship by Bolan himself, synthesizes a substantial body of global evidence on how extreme weather reshapes carbon inputs to soil, microbial processing, erosion, and the sequestration of carbon that underpins soil health, water retention, nutrient cycling, and agricultural productivity.

The work, published in the journal Carbon Research, is notable for the scale of its underlying evidence base. On 14 January 2026, the authors searched Google Scholar, PubMed, and Web of Science using terms spanning climate change, extreme weather, soil carbon, microbial activity, decomposition, erosion, dissolved organic matter, and leaching. The initial sweep returned 14,218 records; after removing duplicates and screening for eligibility, 3,754 articles remained for bibliometric and qualitative analysis. From those, 187 publications were selected for detailed synthesis based on relevance, methodological rigor, and the substantive quality of their findings. Keyword co-occurrence patterns were mapped with VOSviewer, a bibliometric tool that reveals the intellectual architecture of a research field. The result is a critical review grounded in structured literature screening rather than new experimental data, but its synthesis offers one of the most comprehensive maps yet of how extremes rearrange the soil carbon cycle.

The review’s central finding is that no two extremes act alike. Drought, the most widespread disturbance, operates largely through the plant side of the equation. When rainfall fails, photosynthesis slows, plant biomass production falls, and the total flux of carbon entering soils through roots, residues, and litter declines. There is a nuance here: under moderate water stress, plants may temporarily shift a greater proportion of their fixed carbon belowground, investing in roots to chase moisture. But prolonged drought overwhelms that compensatory response. Microbial biomass shrinks, litter decomposition stalls, and the living engine of the soil carbon cycle idles. Then comes the deceptive twist: when rain finally returns, rewetting triggers a rapid pulse of carbon dioxide as starved soil microbes seize upon the accumulated substrates left behind by months of suspended activity. That post-drought CO₂ flush, the review emphasizes, can erase much of the apparent “savings” that accumulated during the dry period. Across the assembled evidence, repeated and multi-year drought was consistently associated with declining soil organic carbon, with grasslands and arable croplands showing particularly pronounced losses, ecosystems that happen to anchor much of the world’s food production.

Flooding tells the opposite story, but it ends in many of the same places. Water saturation chokes off oxygen diffusion through soil pores, forcing microbial metabolism into anaerobic pathways. That shift changes everything downstream. Prolonged waterlogging can drive the chemical reduction of iron oxyhydroxides, minerals that in oxygenated conditions act as microscopic glues binding organic carbon to soil particles. When those minerals dissolve, the carbon they held is released as dissolved organic carbon, which can then be stripped away by erosion and leaching and exported to rivers, lakes, and ultimately the ocean. The review stresses, however, that flooding is not unambiguously a carbon loss story. Wetlands and other periodically inundated ecosystems can accumulate and retain enormous carbon stocks precisely because water constrains decomposition. Whether a flood event releases carbon or banks it depends on the interplay between plant inputs, oxygen availability, and hydrological transport, a delicate balance that shifting rainfall regimes are actively destabilizing.

Wildfire is the most dramatic and immediately visible of the three forces, and its effects cascade on multiple timescales. Combustion directly strips vegetation, litter, and soil organic matter, transferring carbon to the atmosphere in hours. But fire also rearranges the physical and biological landscape of the soil in subtler ways: it can increase erosion by removing protective ground cover, alter soil wettability in ways that change hydrological behavior, restructure microbial communities, and expose previously protected carbon, once shielded inside aggregates or mineral associations, to fresh decomposition. There is a paradoxical bright spot. Pyrogenic carbon, the charcoal-like residue of incomplete combustion, is chemically recalcitrant and can persist in soils for centuries or millennia, functioning as a long-term carbon sink. Whether a fire leaves a landscape as a net carbon source or stabilizes some of its carbon in pyrogenic form depends on fire severity, soil moisture, fuel load, ecosystem type, and the trajectory of post-fire recovery. The review is clear that this balance cannot be predicted from fire alone; it is contingent, site by site, on conditions that vary widely across the globe.

Perhaps the most consequential theme running through the synthesis is that carbon responses cannot be inferred from the type of extreme event alone. Land use, soil mineralogy, hydrology, salinity, vegetation composition, microbial community makeup, and the timing of events within a season all determine whether carbon ends up stored, mobilized, or released. Iron and aluminum oxyhydroxides and clay minerals, for instance, provide mineral protection that can shield organic matter even under stress, while sandy or low-clay soils offer little such refuge. Managed croplands respond differently from native grasslands; saline coastal soils behave differently from acidic forest soils. And compound events, drought followed by wildfire, or alternating drought and flooding in rapid succession, may produce effects that are qualitatively different from those of isolated disturbances, as when a dried landscape burns more intensely, or when post-fire soils, stripped of vegetation, wash away in the first heavy rain. The review argues that the climate science and soil science communities have largely studied these disturbances one at a time, while the real world increasingly delivers them in combination.

The implications for climate mitigation and adaptation are substantial. Soil organic carbon is frequently invoked in national climate pledges and voluntary carbon markets as a bankable sink, yet the review suggests that the security of that bank depends heavily on how often and how severely extremes strike. If multi-year droughts steadily drain carbon from grasslands and croplands, or if fires repeatedly reset accumulation cycles, the effective permanence of soil carbon storage becomes far more fragile than many accounting frameworks assume. Conversely, protecting and rebuilding soil carbon delivers benefits well beyond climate: it improves water retention in drought-prone regions, supports nutrient cycling, stabilizes soil structure against erosion, and sustains the microbial diversity on which fertility depends. Carbon stewardship, in other words, is not separable from food security or ecosystem resilience; it is the same problem viewed from different angles.

The authors are candid about the limits of the current evidence base. The article does not report newly generated datasets and does not present a dedicated limitations section, and its conclusions rest on a qualitative synthesis of selected publications. Consequently, they call for improved and more consistent evidence across soil types, land uses, and both terrestrial and aquatic environments, and across multiple temporal scales, from the instantaneous CO₂ pulse after rewetting to the multi-decadal trajectory of carbon storage. Standardizing measurements of carbon pools, microbial functions, and event intensity, they argue, would make results comparable across ecosystems and enable more confident generalization, something the field currently struggles to achieve given heterogeneous methods and site-specific reporting.

Looking forward, the review sketches a research agenda that is as technologically ambitious as it is mechanistically focused. The authors recommend integrating high-resolution remote sensing with ground observations, advanced spectroscopy, molecular analyses, and integrated modeling to track carbon as it moves through soils and into waterways. They single out several priorities: characterizing microbial genomic and functional diversity as it responds to stress, quantifying carbon stoichiometry, probing the interactions between organic matter and iron and aluminum oxyhydroxides, understanding clay-mineral protection mechanisms, tracking long-term storage outcomes, and systematically studying the sequencing of compound extreme events. Each of these threads addresses a gap in the mechanistic chain that links a weather event in the atmosphere to a molecule of carbon, stabilized or released, in the soil.

What emerges from the review is a picture of the soil carbon cycle not as a stable background process but as a dynamic, contested system whose behavior under climate extremes is far less predictable than once assumed. The same storm that floods a rice paddy and exports carbon to a river delta may, a few hundred kilometers away, end a drought and briefly green a grassland, with opposite consequences for the atmosphere. As extremes grow more frequent and more compound, the review makes the case that understanding, and safeguarding, the carbon held beneath our feet will require science that is as interconnected and as restless as the weather itself.

Keywords

soil organic carbon, extreme weather, drought, flooding, wildfire, carbon sequestration, microbial activity, dissolved organic carbon, erosion, pyrogenic carbon, climate change, soil health

Neso denies allegations aired by Tory MP that staff took part in cover-up over decision-making in heatwave

In a control room in Wokingham, Berkshire, staff work around the clock, minute by minute, to align Great Britain’s fluctuating power supplies with its ever-changing demand.

However, as households struggle to adapt to soaring summer temperatures, staff at the government-owned National Energy System Operator (Neso), tasked with keeping the lights on, have faced the kind of challenge usually reserved for the country’s coldest winter nights in recent weeks.

Operator brings in independent legal firm to look into whistleblower allegations relating to June heatwave

Great Britain’s grid operator has brought in independent investigators to look into accusations that its staff were involved in a cover-up over the power system being at a greater risk of blackouts during the heatwave.

The government-owned energy system operator will face the scrutiny of an external legal firm after a whistleblower claimed that control room staff were warned against leaving a paper trail relating to efforts to stabilise the power system during record high temperatures in late June.

Scientists from Arizona State University have performed computer simulations suggesting viable methods for controlling the weather by ‘nudging” systems in their development stages with proven technologies to mitigate or even completely avoid the damage from extreme weather events.

Although the new approach, which the team termed “Weather Jiu-Jitsu,” hasn’t been tested in real-world conditions, the researchers behind the new perspective paper outlining the process said it could help humans better prepare for severe weather systems by finding ways to live with nature rather than reacting to it.

Controlling the Weather Could Mitigate Property Damage and Loss of Life

When detailing their approach, ASU researcher Qin Huang and colleagues highlight the historical damage caused by extreme weather events, including floods, heat waves, droughts, and ‘freezes.’ In addition to the loss of life, estimates suggest that climate extremes caused $417 billion in damage in 2024 alone.

The paper’s authors also note that such extreme weather events “are increasing in frequency and intensity,” a trend research suggests is strongly driven by rising global temperatures. Although there have been some efforts to mitigate the effects of extreme weather, the paper’s authors write that increasing populations and continued climate change “heighten exposure to risks that conventional infrastructure cannot fully address.”

“The growing impact of weather extremes on society highlights that traditional approaches such as dams, levees, and insurance alone may not be sufficient to address the widespread consequences of these hazards,” the authors write.

To explore alternatives, the team wondered if small adjustments to burgeoning weather systems could redirect their paths or lessen their severity. In some ways, it’s like redirecting an incoming meteor to miss the Earth or hit it at a more oblique angle to lessen the impact.

“Imagine harnessing the power of nature to help steer hurricanes away from land, redirect atmospheric rivers to spread their rain safely and evenly, or defuse extreme weather patterns like heatwaves, freezes, or prolonged droughts before they take hold,” Huang and colleagues write. “It’s a vision where we partner with Earth’s own forces to create resilience, rather than reacting to disasters. We call it Weather Jiu-Jitsu.”

‘Nudging’ Weather System Trajectories with Weather Jiu-Jitsu

When detailing how the process would work, the team explained that Weather Jiu-Jitsu takes advantage of the “chaotic sensitivity of mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics to redirect destructive weather trajectories through small, precisely timed perturbations,” using forecasting models that project system paths and intensities.

“Our thesis is that Weather Jiu-Jitsu, i.e., adaptive chaos control applied to mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics, may provide a 21st century approach to managing a range of extreme weather events by nudging the system trajectories,” they explain.

Due to the challenges and risks of testing weather-control methods in real-world conditions, the researchers developed proof-of-concept computer simulations. Critically, their approach used established models of atmospheric circulation and a large-scale artificial intelligence “deep-learning Earth system” model, Aurora, designed to predict weather at high resolution.

According to the team’s research, carefully timed seeding of clouds could have major impacts on a storm’s path and intensity, noting that “nudges applied days before peak impact can shift a hurricane track to avoid landfall on a major city, weaken the peak intensity of a blocking-driven cold extreme, and reduce atmospheric river moisture transport under favorable upstream conditions.”

When testing their weather control approach on historically extreme climate events, the results were significant. For example, the team found that small, carefully timed cloud seeding operations applied in the critical days before the peak of an extreme weather event “could have shifted the track of the 2012 Hurricane Sandy by about 300 miles to miss New York City.”

The model also indicated that a similar approach could have raised the lowest temperature extremes experienced during the 2021 Texas freeze “by about 18 degrees Fahrenheit.” Similarly, the model revealed that the approach could have reduced the damaging precipitation levels associated with the 2022 atmospheric river that caused flooding in California by about 5%.

“By leveraging the atmosphere’s inherent sensitivity, Weather Jiu-Jitsu seeks not to overpower nature, but to collaborate with it: nudging storm tracks, influencing jet stream meanders, and possibly mitigating compound extremes before they fully develop,” the authors explain.

Revolutionizing the Risk from Extreme Climate Events

When discussing the potential impacts of controlling the weather before serious damage can occur, the study authors noted that it would be “transformative” for the planet. They also noted that controlling the weather could offer an outsized benefit to the most vulnerable people “who do not have recourse to other protections from weather extremes.”

Still, they add that demonstrating the real-world benefits of their approach to controlling the weather while accounting for “natural variability” will require evidence of tangible outcomes. The suggestion is that these metrics would include “reductions in peak precipitation intensity, flood inundation extent, and insured economic losses.”

To achieve this goal, Huang and colleagues recommended a three-stage approach. In the near term, they suggested starting with “controlled deep-learning perturbation experiments” for historical extreme events like floods and droughts, and air them with an “observational system design.” In the medium term, Huang and colleagues suggested implementing “scaled regional pilot studies” and developing a “governance framework development with WMO and UNEP.” The final proposed phase involved limited operational pilot experiments in select locations “under formal international oversight with systematic outcome monitoring.”

“We outline an argument that control over catastrophic weather extremes is imperative to reduce exposure to catastrophic events that are not mitigated by traditional physical, financial, or social infrastructure, and explore conditions under which this may be feasible,” the authors conclude. “If such an approach were successful, it could revolutionize hydroclimatic risk mitigation.”

The study “Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Prospects for atmospheric nudging to defuse the impact of catastrophic weather extremes” was published in PLOS Water.

Christopher Plain is a Science Fiction and Fantasy novelist and Head Science Writer at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his books at plainfiction.com, or email him directly at christopher@thedebrief.org.

The scientific consensus is that burning fossil fuels drives the climate crisis, yet the world’s biggest oil companies are planning to increase production

As the world swelters in ever more dangerous heat, why are oil companies being allowed to turn up the gas instead of paying for the consequences of their greed?

That ought to be the question on everyone’s minds amid baking heat domes over much of the northern hemisphere, temperature records being smashed day after day, children dying in locked cars, hospitals filling with heatstroke victims and emergency services tackling wildfires.

With CO2 greening the planet, any possible harms are outweighed by the benefits of more trees and crops. And that's even before you subtract the monumental cost of Net Zero, says Matt Ridley.

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