Apple’s first foldable iPhone could contribute about $14 billion in revenue in the December quarter, according to Morgan Stanley, which called next week’s product event the company’s most consequential since the iPhone X.

Analyst Erik Woodring described the device as the biggest iPhone form-factor change since 2017. The bank expects strong early demand, but tight supply, with 7 million to 8 million units built in the second half of 2026 and as many as 20 million over the first product cycle. Shipments are expected to start in October or early November.

Morgan Stanley also framed the launch as a test of Apple’s pricing power. Rising NAND and DRAM costs are expected to push Pro models more than $200 higher year over year. The key upgrade on the iPhone 18 Pro is likely TSMC’s 2-nanometer process, aimed at stronger on-device AI performance. The bank said Apple appears more focused on securing components than finding buyers, though memory supply could still limit near-term production.

The September 9th event will also mark a leadership shift. New CEO John Ternus is expected to introduce the foldable — rumored as iPhone Fold or Ultra — alongside what Morgan Stanley called the broadest like-for-like iPhone price increases in company history. Woodring kept an Overweight rating and a $360 price target, noting Apple stock often outperforms into launch events, but can fade on the day itself. Sustained gains, he said, will depend on later estimate revisions.

Other analysts have put the foldable at roughly $2,300 to $2,500. Independent checks from Ming-Chi Kuo have pointed to similarly constrained early volumes and the possibility of weeks-long wait times.
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MacDailyNews Take: We’ll see how supply holds up when pre-orders beign – likely within a minute or two. If you want one of the first foldable iPhones, you’ll need to pre-order within the first minutes!

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The post Morgan Stanley: Foldable iPhone could add $14 billion to Apple’s December quarter appeared first on MacDailyNews.

Apple is scaling back its hardware shipment plans in 2026 due to DRAM shortages, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today.


Kuo made the comment in a longer piece disputing a recent report suggesting TSMC has $1 billion of unpackaged processors waiting on memory chips that Apple has been unable to secure. Kuo said Apple plans processor production at least three months in advance based on the amount of memory expected to be available, and it does not have TSMC build large numbers of wafers ahead of time. He believes there are indeed memory shortages, but no situation where TSMC is sitting on unused inventory.

In other words, tight memory supply is real. But my understanding is that there has been no dramatic scenario in which TSMC first built up US$1 billion of WIP and then had to wait for memory to arrive before packaging could proceed. TSMC and Apple are both known for world-class execution, and such a dramatic development would be unusual given how closely the two companies coordinate their supply chains.

Memory shortages have already affected the Mac Studio, Mac mini, and MacBook Air, and it sounds like ongoing supply problems will also impact the upcoming iPhone models. Memory makers have been prioritizing supply for AI data centers because contracts for those chips are more profitable, leaving less capacity available for consumer device chips.

A lack of supply has driven prices up and led to long wait times for some products. Apple raised prices on all of its Macs and iPads in June, and iPhone prices are expected to go up in September.

The iPhone 18 Pro, ‌iPhone 18 Pro‌ Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra could be available in limited quantities because of the memory problems, and we expect the devices will sell out during the preorder period.
This article, "Apple Cutting Back 2026 Hardware Shipments Due to Memory Shortage" first appeared on MacRumors.com

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