A multidisciplinary team from Baylor College of Medicine, Rice University and the University of Texas School of Public Health has received the inaugural Climate + Health Excellence award from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund. The five-year, $10 million award will support FORECAST, an ambitious program designed to investigate how climate change, extreme weather and environmental disruption influence the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Led by infectious disease researcher Dr. Anthony Maresso, the project will combine wastewater surveillance, metagenomic sequencing, climate science, epidemiology and public education to create an early-warning system for pathogen activity across Texas.

FORECAST will build on Texas’s expanding wastewater-monitoring infrastructure, including the Texas Wastewater Environmental Biomonitoring Network, or TexWEB. The statewide network samples sewage from 15 Texas cities and analyzes biological material shed by communities. Unlike clinical surveillance, which depends on people seeking medical care and receiving diagnostic tests, wastewater epidemiology captures population-level signals from entire communities. Viral genetic fragments, bacterial DNA and other biological markers can appear in sewage before hospitals and clinics register a rise in patients, providing public health officials with valuable time to investigate and respond.

The program will use metagenomic surveillance, a technique that examines genetic material recovered from environmental samples rather than searching only for a predetermined pathogen. In conventional testing, laboratories typically use targeted molecular assays designed to detect a known virus or bacterium. Metagenomic sequencing can survey a much broader range of organisms, including variants and potentially unfamiliar pathogens. Researchers can then compare these signals with clinical data, geographic information and environmental measurements to determine whether changes in temperature, rainfall, flooding, drought or other conditions are associated with shifts in infectious disease activity.

The scientific goal is not simply to identify pathogens after they appear, but to uncover relationships between microbes and the environmental conditions that help them enter or circulate within human populations. Climate change can influence disease transmission through several pathways. Warmer temperatures may expand the geographic range or seasonal activity of mosquitoes and other vectors. Heavy rainfall and flooding can overwhelm sanitation systems and redistribute contaminants, while drought can alter water use and concentrate biological material. Changes in human behavior, animal movement and ecosystems may create additional opportunities for pathogens to cross species boundaries.

Maresso and his colleagues demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic that SARS-CoV-2 signals in wastewater could precede increases in clinically diagnosed infections. Viral RNA released in feces entered sewage systems, where researchers tracked changes in concentration over time. Although wastewater measurements cannot determine which individuals are infected, they can reveal whether pathogen activity is increasing or declining within a catchment area. The approach has since been extended to a wider range of targets, including avian influenza, measles, HIV and viruses associated with cancer. FORECAST aims to develop this surveillance capacity into a predictive climate-health platform.

Rice University climate scientist Dr. Sylvia Dee will help connect pathogen observations with weather and climate data. The team plans to examine whether specific environmental patterns consistently occur before increases in particular infectious agents. Such models could eventually function like a public health weather report, indicating when conditions are becoming more favorable for disease transmission. The researchers emphasize that predictive systems will require careful validation because the presence of pathogen genetic material does not necessarily indicate infectious virus, active transmission or a future outbreak. Interpreting the signal will require laboratory studies, clinical evidence and knowledge of local infrastructure.

The project will also investigate diseases transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes. Dr. Peter Hotez and colleagues at the National School of Tropical Medicine will focus on vector-borne pathogen transmission and the growing health risks associated with changing climate conditions. Texas is particularly relevant for this work because it contains diverse ecological regions and experiences heat waves, hurricanes, flooding and rapid urban growth. These factors can affect mosquito habitats, human exposure and the movement of pathogens across communities. Integrating wastewater findings with vector surveillance could help reveal connections that would remain hidden if either system were used alone.

Education and public communication will form a central part of FORECAST. The team plans to create a “Middle to Medical” climate-health education track extending from middle school through medical training and professional development. Dr. Nancy Moreno, who developed Baylor’s BioEd online program, will lead educational efforts with Rice University’s Dr. Joseph Campana, director of the university’s Center for Environmental Studies and EcoStudio. The curriculum will explain how pathogens spread, how climate conditions alter disease risk and how scientific evidence can guide decisions by students, clinicians, policymakers and communities.

The award is particularly significant because FORECAST was selected as the sole funded project from 161 applications submitted to the new CHEX program. The initiative is intended to strengthen research, education and public engagement at the intersection of climate change and human health. Dr. Eric Boerwinkle, dean of the UT School of Public Health and a project co-investigator, will contribute access to large clinical datasets that can be used to evaluate wastewater and environmental signals against reported illnesses. The investigators say the work could improve outbreak preparedness while advancing the still-developing field of wastewater science.

By combining environmental sequencing with climate modeling and health education, FORECAST seeks to shift infectious disease surveillance from a largely reactive system toward earlier detection and prevention. Its findings may help officials recognize emerging threats before they produce widespread clinical disease, while also clarifying how environmental changes shape viral evolution, transmission and geographic spread. The researchers describe wastewater as an unusually candid public health resource: it aggregates biological information from a population without requiring individual testing. As climate pressures intensify, they argue, that collective signal could become an essential tool for protecting communities and preparing the next generation of scientists.

Subject of Research:
Climate-driven infectious disease emergence, wastewater epidemiology, metagenomic pathogen surveillance and climate-health education.

Article Title:
Texas Researchers Launch FORECAST Program to Link Climate Change With Emerging Viral Threats

Web References:
Baylor College of Medicine; Rice University; University of Texas School of Public Health; Burroughs Wellcome Fund; Texas Wastewater Environmental Biomonitoring Network (TexWEB).

References:
Information provided in the source news release concerning the FORECAST project, the Climate + Health Excellence award and TexWEB wastewater surveillance activities.

Keywords:
Wastewater epidemiology, viral surveillance, metagenomic sequencing, climate change, infectious diseases, pathogen emergence, public health, Texas, SARS-CoV-2, avian influenza, measles, vector-borne disease, climate health, epidemiology, wastewater science

New data reveal major geographic disparities and highlight the urgent need for global action on prevention, early detection, and equitable access to treatment. For roughly one in five people worldwide, cancer will become part of their lifetime. Global Cancer Statistics, 2026 estimates that nearly 21 million people were diagnosed with cancer in 2024 and 9.8 [...]

Breast cancer patterns are shifting rapidly in several Asian American communities. Breast cancer has long been considered less common among Asian American women than among white women in the United States. A new UC San Francisco-led study suggests that this pattern is changing quickly, especially among younger women and in some aggressive forms of the [...]

Adolescent appearance may predict survival into young adulthood, a new study suggests.

A new study suggests plague was already a deadly threat 5,500 years ago, striking small hunter-gatherer communities long before cities and agriculture emerged. For centuries, plague has been remembered as the disease that devastated medieval Europe, killing millions and reshaping societies. But new research suggests its deadly history stretches much further back than previously thought. [...]

Plague swept through groups of hunter-gatherers in southeastern Siberia 5,500 years ago, leaving dozens dead in its wake—with DNA from Yersinia pestis bacteria still trapped inside their teeth.

University of Oxford ancient DNA researcher Ruairidh Macleod and his colleagues recently sequenced the telltale bacterial DNA in teeth from plague victims at four ancient cemeteries in the area around Russia’s Lake Baikal. The tragedy that befell these communities is now the earliest known plague outbreak, courtesy of the oldest strain of Y. pestis ever sequenced.

Unearthing a new backstory for the plague

Until recently, scientists who study the evolution of diseases have held two fairly solid ideas about the origins of plague, the disease caused by Yersinia pestis bacteria. It's a scourge so awful that it has gone down in history as not just a plague but the plague. The first idea is that the earliest strains didn't have the right genetic traits to be really lethal. And the second is that the plague first began menacing humans when the first farmers settled in densely packed towns alongside rats and domestic animals.

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© Kevin WIlson

Plague swept through groups of hunter-gatherers in southeastern Siberia 5,500 years ago, leaving dozens dead in its wake—with DNA from Yersinia pestis bacteria still trapped inside their teeth.

University of Oxford ancient DNA researcher Ruairidh Macleod and his colleagues recently sequenced the telltale bacterial DNA in teeth from plague victims at four ancient cemeteries in the area around Russia’s Lake Baikal. The tragedy that befell these communities is now the earliest known plague outbreak, courtesy of the oldest strain of Y. pestis ever sequenced.

Unearthing a new backstory for the plague

Until recently, scientists who study the evolution of diseases have held two fairly solid ideas about the origins of plague, the disease caused by Yersinia pestis bacteria. It's a scourge so awful that it has gone down in history as not just a plague but the plague. The first idea is that the earliest strains didn't have the right genetic traits to be really lethal. And the second is that the plague first began menacing humans when the first farmers settled in densely packed towns alongside rats and domestic animals.

Read full article

Comments

© Kevin WIlson

In a significant advancement that reshapes our understanding of alcohol’s carcinogenic profile, researchers at the University of Victoria’s Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research (CISUR) have provided compelling evidence linking alcohol consumption to pancreatic cancer. This breakthrough, detailed in a recent systematic review and meta-analysis published in the International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research, underscores a critical public health concern, given pancreatic cancer’s notorious lethality and elusive risk factors.

The global health community, guided by the World Health Organization’s classification, has long acknowledged alcohol as a causal factor in several cancers, including those of the mouth, breast, and colon. However, the relationship between alcohol and pancreatic cancer has been less definitive. The new analysis conducted by CISUR scientists, spearheaded by Tim Naimi and lead author Jinhui Zhao, provides the most rigorous compilation of cohort studies to date, affirmatively adding pancreatic cancer to alcohol’s known carcinogenic portfolio.

Pancreatic cancer remains one of the deadliest malignancies, characterized by late diagnosis and poor survival rates, with merely 12 percent of Canadian patients living beyond five years post-diagnosis. Identifying modifiable risk factors is paramount for prevention efforts, and this study highlights alcohol intake as a significant contributor. Unlike previous epidemiological research susceptible to confounding variables, this meta-analysis painstakingly corrected for former drinker bias—a methodological flaw where individuals who ceased alcohol consumption (often due to health decline) were misclassified as abstainers, skewing risk estimations.

The investigation meticulously sifted through longitudinal cohort data encompassing diverse populations, controlling for age, smoking habits, and socioeconomic status, critical variables that can distort the true association between alcohol and cancer risk. By excluding former drinkers from the abstainer group and focusing on lifelong non-drinkers as the baseline, the researchers eliminated a key source of bias that had previously obscured alcohol’s carcinogenic potential in pancreatic tissue.

A striking dose-response relationship emerged from the data: consumption exceeding 24 grams of ethanol daily, approximately just under two standard drinks in Canada, correlated with a 10 to 30 percent increased risk of pancreatic cancer. This quantitative threshold sharpens public health messaging, providing a concrete benchmark at which alcohol consumption moves from moderate to clinically significant carcinogenic exposure for this specific cancer type.

The biological mechanisms underpinning alcohol-induced pancreatic carcinogenesis are multifaceted. Ethanol metabolism generates acetaldehyde, a potent mutagen that induces DNA damage and promotes malignant transformation. Additionally, chronic alcohol exposure fosters an inflammatory microenvironment within the pancreas, exacerbating fibrosis and cellular stress that facilitate oncogenesis. These pathological alterations compound the pancreas’s vulnerability, illuminating plausible pathways through which alcohol intensifies cancer risk.

Tim Naimi emphasized the imperative for updating global health guidelines to incorporate pancreatic cancer among alcohol-related malignancies, aligning policy with the latest empirical evidence. This paradigm shift mandates enhanced public awareness campaigns and a reevaluation of alcohol consumption advisories, particularly given the high morbidity associated with pancreatic cancer and the preventable nature of toxin exposure.

The study’s robust methodology and comprehensive meta-analytic framework represent a milestone in addiction science and cancer epidemiology, illustrating how careful adjustment for bias and confounders can clarify contentious risk factors. The researchers advocate for ongoing surveillance of alcohol consumption patterns alongside cancer incidence metrics to monitor trends and inform targeted interventions.

Public health stakeholders are urged to recognize the implications of these findings, integrating them into risk reduction strategies that do not merely minimize overall alcohol use but specifically address dosage thresholds linked to increased pancreatic cancer risk. This nuanced understanding equips clinicians and policymakers with evidence-based tools to combat the rising burden of pancreatic malignancies related to lifestyle factors.

In conclusion, this research decisively confirms that alcohol is not only a disruptor of liver and gastrointestinal tract health but is also an independent and modifiable risk factor for pancreatic cancer. The findings encourage a reconsideration of alcohol consumption norms worldwide, advocating for a precautionary approach in both legislative frameworks and individual health decisions.

The CISUR team’s work stands as an exemplar of how epidemiological rigor and critical analysis can refine public health knowledge, ensuring that alcohol-related cancer prevention strategies are both scientifically sound and impactful. As new data emerges, such systemic reviews will be essential in safeguarding health and reducing the global cancer burden attributable to alcohol use.

Subject of Research: Alcohol consumption and its causative link to pancreatic cancer

Article Title: Alcohol consumption and the risk of pancreatic cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Web References:
https://ijadr.org/index.php/ijadr/article/view/649
http://dx.doi.org/10.7895/ijadr.649

Keywords: Alcohol abuse, pancreatic cancer, alcohol-related cancer, epidemiology, cohort studies, dose-response relationship, carcinogenesis, acetaldehyde, inflammation, former drinker bias, public health, cancer prevention

A long-awaited study of people with ME/CFS revealed differences in their immune and nervous system. The findings may offer clues about long COVID

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