A giant blob of abnormally cold water in the North Atlantic Ocean is shifting the Indian summer monsoon, threatening the livelihoods of more than 1 billion people, new research suggests.

The link between these two systems highlights a previously unrecognized connection that could inform weather forecasts in South Asia and shed light on climatic events elsewhere, scientists say.

The Indian summer monsoon is a rainfall pattern that lasts from June to September and is driven by temperature differences between the warm northern Indian Ocean and cooler seawater below the equator. Historically, the monsoon triggered heavy rainfall along the west coast of India and a huge region of northern India called the Indo-Gangetic Plain. But since 1999, this pattern has changed dramatically, the researchers reported in a new study.

Northwest India now receives about 25% more rain during the monsoon season than it did before 1999, while the Indo-Gangetic Plain gets roughly 4% less, the team found. This is disastrous for farmers, in particular, because their soils and crops are adapted to the old rainfall pattern, said study first author Mahendra Nimmakanti, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Science's Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

"India is largely dependent on agriculture," Nimmakanti told Live Science in a joint interview with study co-author Matthew Huber, a professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences at Purdue University in Indiana. Higher-than-normal precipitation in northwest India is causing flash floods and crop losses, because agriculture in this region is adapted to dry conditions. Meanwhile, the Indo-Gangetic Plain has seen periods of drought that also caused crop declines and impacted farmers' livelihoods, Nimmakanti said.

Previous studies have linked shifts in the Indian summer monsoon to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant web of ocean currents in the Atlantic that regulates the global climate and carries heat to the Northern Hemisphere. Data suggests the AMOC is slowing due to climate change and releasing less heat in the North Atlantic Ocean than it did before. This may be causing a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, a band of low-pressure atmospheric conditions around the equator that drives tropical monsoons, including the Indian summer monsoon.

But these studies didn't specify how the Indian monsoon might shift or explain the underlying mechanism in detail, Nimmakanti said. "They generally explain that if there is a weakening of AMOC, that suppresses the Indian summer monsoon," he said.

One part of the problem is that current climate models do not show the changes in the Indian monsoon that have happened in real life, possibly because they also don't fully capture shifts in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. This is especially true for a region southeast of Greenland known as the "cold blob," where the water was colder between 1901 and 2021 than it was in the late 1800s, even as the ocean around it heated up.

The cold blob suggests the AMOC is weakening because it points to a reduction in the amount of heat reaching the North Atlantic.

To pinpoint how and why the Indian monsoon has changed, the researchers fed precipitation data, sea surface temperature records and other real-life observations into dozens of climate models. This reproduced the shifts observed over the past 27 years. However, the results only implied a correlation between shifts in the North Atlantic and changes in the monsoon, not that the former directly caused the latter.

To figure out if North Atlantic sea surface temperatures caused the Indian monsoon to behave strangely, the team added and removed the cold blob in a simulation. The results showed that the cold blob has shifted the Indian monsoon by creating a strong temperature gradient over the North Atlantic, which, in turn, affects jet stream winds and pressure systems in the atmosphere above Eurasia.

Specifically, the jet stream above the North Atlantic has intensified, and a "blocking" system over the Ural Mountains in western Russia has strengthened, Huber said. As a result, weather systems in India have changed, sucking moist air toward the country's northwest and away from other regions.

"It's a shifting of the high- and low-pressure systems," Huber said. "Realizing that these two systems were directly linked through this wave train coming off the North Atlantic, that was novel."

More than 1 billion people in India and other parts of South Asia depend on the monsoon for food security and economic stability. The new results, published April 27 in the journal AGU Advances, could help forecasters predict extreme rainfall and drought events in India and neighboring countries like Pakistan during the monsoon season.

Some researchers think the Indian monsoon is a key tipping point within the global climate, and the findings suggest the system crossed a threshold in 1999. Since then, the cold blob has caused a "persistent jet stream reorganization," leading to abrupt shifts in the monsoon, according to the study.

It's unclear how the Indian monsoon will evolve under intensifying climate change, because climate models produce different predictions of what will happen in the North Atlantic, and other drivers may come into play as the world changes, Huber said.

"What we do now know is that this is one of the key building blocks of formulating a theory for what will happen in the future," he said.

The San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems are at their highest levels of tectonic stress in 1,000 years, raising the threat of a major, imminent earthquake that could devastate Southern California, a new study finds.

The faults could rupture separately or together, thanks to an "earthquake gate" between them at Cajon Pass, where the San Jacinto fault splits from the main trace of the San Andreas fault. Researchers discovered that Cajon Pass can prevent or facilitate earthquakes moving between the faults, depending on how similar their stress levels are at the time of rupture.

And right now, the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults appear to have comparable, extremely elevated stress levels, potentially spelling trouble for Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside and the Coachella Valley, the team warned.

"Our results show that stress levels on multiple fault segments are now at or above the highest values seen in the past millennium and that the region may be capable of a large through-going rupture involving both fault systems," study first author Liliane Burkhard, a planetary geologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland and at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said in a statement.

The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have caused 36 earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.4 or above in the past 1,000 years. Southern California's last "big one" was a magnitude 7.9 event in 1857, when a 205-mile (330 kilometers) segment of the San Andreas fault slipped horizontally between Parkfield and Cajon Pass. That rupture did not propagate through Cajon Pass, but a similar megaquake in 1812 did, suggesting this could happen again in what is now a much more built-up and densely populated environment, according to the study.

Almost 170 years have passed since the 1857 megaquake, raising fears that another huge earthquake could be due to hit soon.

To estimate this risk, Burkhard and her colleagues built a model replicating the last 1,000 years of major earthquake activity along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems.

The researchers used observations such as tree-ring records and age data from sediments that have been displaced to reconstruct Southern California's earthquake history. They fed this information into the model, which simulated the accumulation, release and propagation of tectonic stress in the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults.

The results, published June 3 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, suggest the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults are primed for an Earth-shattering rupture, which may involve the earthquake gate at Cajon Pass opening to unleash more destruction than a single-fault event would on its own.

If a rupture were to occur along the two branches of the San Andreas fault that connect at Cajon Pass, it would be a joint rupture, according to the study. If both branches of the San Andreas fault and the San Jacinto fault were involved, this would constitute a tripartite rupture.

The chance of each event happening and the timing of a potential rupture are unknown, but understanding how much stress is building up inside the system could help planners and policymakers prepare for whatever comes next, Burkhard said.

"What we can say is that the system is critically stressed, and that physics-based models like this one give us a clearer picture of the range of scenarios we should be prepared for," she said. "That information matters for hazard assessment, infrastructure planning, and emergency preparedness."

The researchers say their model could apply to other fault junctions and be used as a tool for hazard assessment globally. "We are using rigorous, quantitative science to better understand the risk facing millions of people," Burkhard said.