When George Mason University‌‌ scientists ran thousands of virtual simulations looking for the best ways to optimize group dynamics in future Moon bases, including NASA’s planned ARTEMIS mission base facility, they found that smaller crew sizes and longer mission durations adversely affected task completion, whereas shorter missions and frequent astronaut replacement mitigated challenges.

The Moon base simulations also found that extreme events such as moonquakes and radiation exposure increased group stress, resulting in what they described as an “emotional penalty that is applied multiplicatively” to the likelihood that the entire crew would execute the task.

Although the team behind the model reported no scenarios that resulted in a complete Lord of the Flies-level breakdown of crew cooperation, they said that their simulations explored the internal human and external environmental factors “that are more likely to lead to sustainable versus catastrophic scenarios on the Moon in the next couple of decades,” including planned NASA missions to the Moon and Mars as well as the burgeoning commercial space market.

Virtual Astronauts Evaluated on Task Performance

In a published paper detailing the study’s results, the George Mason University team behind the Lunar Base simulations noted that recent technological advancements and the emergence of the burgeoning commercial space industry “have led to substantial leaps in planning for future space missions.”

“The largest planned upcoming mission is the Artemis program, supported by NASA and the international Artemis Accords, which aims to create the first permanent human presence on the Moon and in deep space (the Moon to Mars architecture),” the study authors explain.

While engineers will test and plan for potential equipment failures, the authors also note that the success of any future base on the Moon, Mars, in orbit, or elsewhere in deep space will depend on how well the astronauts interact with each other in an extremely challenging environment. This gap led researcher Raymond Vera and colleagues at George Mason University in Virginia, USA, to develop their agent-based module (ABM) simulation tool for the Lunar Base.

According to the study authors, the model’s main objective is to “simulate a theoretical lunar mission environment” including the primary surface habitat (Moon Base) and the orbiting Gateway station, “for astronauts to perform relevant space mission tasks.”

“The successful completion of the mission is measured by task performance, which is significantly influenced by cognitive skills, psychological state, and interpersonal relationships, in addition to the exogenous factors of the extreme environment,” they explain.

Different Personality Types and Skillsets Improve Simulation Accuracy

To make their simulated astronauts as realistic as possible, the George Mason team said they randomly assigned each one with “DISC personality types” such as dominant, influential, steady, or conscientious. The virtual astronauts were also given different professional skills, physical health parameters, and what the researchers termed “other characteristics.”

With their virtual astronauts programmed and ready, Vera’s team had to create the perfect simulated Moon base, complete with task assignments, base operations requirements, and environmental factors gleaned from previous isolated, extreme environment missions and simulations.

“Drawing from the literature on proxy environments (extreme environments on Earth (i.e., Antarctica), space analogs, and past space missions), and on theories of small group complex systems and team science, we created a highly probable representation or simulation of expected social interactions between astronauts, and astronauts with the lunar environment for the Artemis program (i.e., Artemis IV (Lunar Gateway) and Artemis V (Lunar South Pole Base)),” the study authors explained.

Like real humans, the virtual astronauts learned to adapt over time in response to interpersonal dynamics and environmental conditions, becoming more efficient at performing routine tasks. These improvements resulted in the virtual astronauts advancing in skill level over time.

Because the Moon, Mars, and space itself are all challenging environments for humans, Vera’s team periodically introduced ‘extreme’ events into the virtual astronauts’ daily routine. In more basic scenarios, the astronauts had to work together to overcome broken equipment or a malfunctioning rover. During more challenging conditions, the virtual astronauts inhabiting the simulated Lunar Base were exposed to moonquakes and “intense radiation events.”

Thousands of Simulations Including Moonquakes and Radiation Events

First, the researchers noted that “Monte Carlo simulations consisting of tens of thousands of iterations show trade-offs in productivity and psychological well-being.” For example, a subset of the thousands of Moon base simulations involving more mundane tasks was mostly successful, with compatible personality and skill types working together to complete tasks accurately and in a timely fashion.

However, as mission duration became extended, incidents of task failure and virtual astronaut stress increased. To address this issue, a statement announcing the findings noted that “increasing crew size helped to optimize advancement in professional skill levels and boosted chances of teamwork-enhancing personality compatibility.” In short, adding more virtual astronauts with more diverse skills and personality types to the existing group of overworked or overtasked astronauts helped to stabilize the base’s operations.

To evaluate psychological health, the model evaluated coping capacity (the astronaut’s internal emotional state), and group tension defined by the researchers as “interpersonal strain.”

“These factors change over time based on personality interactions, environmental stressors, and unexpected activities,” the researchers explained.

For example, while increased crew size and improved virtual astronaut skills “boosted chances of teamwork-enhancing personality compatibility,” the team found that factors such as “longer mission duration and lack of astronaut replacements” introduced unnecessary psychological stress that “decreased performance on mission tasks” across the entire crew.

When the virtual astronauts experienced more extreme events, such as simulated radiation or moonquakes, they showed increased signs of stress, including reduced coping capacity and higher tension levels. The researchers said this convergence of stresses and reduced coping capacity can add up over time, resulting in an “emotional penalty that is applied multiplicatively to the task execution likelihood.”

“Scenario analysis shows that increasing crew size results in optimizing skill specialization and increasing the chance of teamwork personality compatibility,” the team explained in their findings. “In contrast, prolonged mission durations, higher learning rates, and the absence of astronaut replacements introduces additional psychological stress resulting in a decrease of task performance.”

Human Factors Increasingly Important in the Commercial 21st Century Space Age

The researchers suggested that future efforts could include examining the physiological effects of extended space missions and communication delays with Earth, which can reach several minutes depending on the base’s distance.

When discussing the implications of their work, the team said that using simulations like theirs “demonstrates how agent-based modeling can help mission planners evaluate operational resilience, team structures, and workload dynamics in support of future lunar exploration.”

“As humanity prepares to establish a permanent presence on the Moon, understanding human behavior becomes just as important as understanding engineering systems,” the study authors conclude. “Although human psychology and team science have been crucial for the success of past space missions, from the Apollo program and Skylab to the Space Shuttle (STS) and the International Space Station (ISS), human factors and social behavior will become even more ubiquitous and essential for space missions in the new era of commercial space.”

The study “Lunar base agent-based modeling – A benchmark for simulating crewed space missions” was published in PLOS One.

 Christopher Plain is a Science Fiction and Fantasy novelist and Head Science Writer at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his books at plainfiction.com, or email him directly at christopher@thedebrief.org.

NASA has unveiled a wide range of Moon Base developments as its Artemis program seeks not only to return humans to the Moon, but also to establish permanent infrastructure there.

Among the disclosures was new information about crewed and autonomous lunar rovers, timeframes, and a lunar South Pole exploration mission in preparation for crewed landings. Together, these Moon Base missions will lay the groundwork for humanity’s permanent presence on the lunar surface.

“The Moon Base will be America’s and humanity’s first outpost on another celestial world,” said NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. “Every mission, crewed and uncrewed, will be a learning opportunity as we return to the lunar surface, build the infrastructure to stay, and master the skills required to live and operate in one of the most demanding and dangerous environments imaginable.”

Moon Base Missions

During the presentation, NASA clarified its plans by announcing three missions designed to help establish the foundation for a permanent Moon Base, all of which are scheduled to launch this year. The agency also hinted that these three missions are only the beginning, with more than a dozen additional announcements expected later this year.

The Moon Base I mission could launch as early as this fall, using Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 Endurance lander to deliver two instruments to the lunar surface to aid future landings. These include the Laser Retroreflective Array, which will allow spacecraft to precisely laser-target landing sites, and the Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume-Surface Studies instrument, which will provide detailed data on how lander thrusters interact with lunar regolith.

Improving the predictability of landings and takeoffs will be essential for safety as the lunar surface becomes increasingly populated with permanent infrastructure.

Also planned for this year is the Moon Base II mission, which will carry another 1,100 pounds of cargo, highlighted by Astrolab’s FLIP rover, designed to test lunar mobility technologies for a future crewed lunar terrain vehicle. Finally, Moon Base III will deliver the Lunar Vertex rover, designed to study the Moon’s magnetic anomalies, along with payloads from the European Space Agency and the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute.

Lunar Vehicles

NASA says that establishing reliable surface mobility during the earliest stages of the Moon Base effort will be critical to long-term success. With Astrolab’s FLIP rover already testing lunar mobility technologies, it is no surprise that NASA has also awarded contracts to both Astrolab and Lunar Outpost to develop the first Lunar Terrain Vehicles (LTVs). NASA is currently targeting 2028 for its Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative to place both crewed and uncrewed LTVs on the lunar surface.

Building on its work with the FLEX rover, Astrolab is already deep into development of its Crewed Lunar Vehicle, CLV-1, which is expected to support 2,000 pounds of mass and reach speeds of up to 6 mph on the lunar surface under optimal conditions.

Lunar Outpost’s competing vehicle, Pegasus, is expected to reach speeds of up to 9 mph and support manual, autonomous, or remote operation. Both companies are expected to finalize and test their lunar vehicles by the end of 2027.

Making Moon Base a Reality

Many different components will need to come together for the Moon Base initiative to succeed. In addition to the mission and vehicle announcements, NASA also discussed several smaller supporting projects. The planned 2028 Moon Fall mission, for example, will scout potential landing sites using a team of four drones designed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. NASA also said additional announcements regarding private-sector contracts tied to the Moon Base initiative are expected soon.

“We will go for the science, for all we stand to gain from an economic and technological perspective, for the innovations that will make life better here on Earth, and to prepare for where we will inevitably go next,” Isaacman concluded. “We are grateful for President Trump’s leadership, the bipartisan commitment from Congress, our industry and international partners, and the dedicated NASA workforce whose expertise enables us to achieve the near-impossible.”

Ryan Whalen covers science and technology for The Debrief. He holds an MA in History and a Master of Library and Information Science with a certificate in Data Science. He can be contacted at ryan@thedebrief.org, and follow him on Twitter @mdntwvlf.