Last summer, astronomers were observing the near approach of a space object believed to be an asteroid that had been tracked since its discovery in 1998. However, in a surprising development, the object failed to appear where it was predicted to be after decades of observations.

Now, a team of researchers reports in a new study that this mysterious orbital body is no asteroid at all, but instead may be an elusive class of space objects that scientists are still working to fully understand.

The research, published in the journal Nature Astronomy, identifies the newly suspected reasons for this unexpected “dark” twist in the developing story of 1998 SH2, a celestial body once thought to be a common space rock that is now upending past thinking on how to protect Earth from potential impact risks.

1998 SH2’s August Surprise

Since its discovery in 1998, the object designated 1998 SH2 has been monitored by astronomers continuously, providing close to three decades of observations that inform us about its orbit, leaving what researchers thought would be little room for surprises.

That all changed last August as the anticipated return of 1998 SH2 approached. Based on radar observations, the object appeared to be absent from its expected orbital path—a mystery that initially baffled astronomers.

Eventually, once the near-Earth object was spotted again by Brazil’s Southern Observatory for Near Earth Asteroids Research, it had moved significantly beyond its expected path. But what could account for such an unusual display?

When AN Asteroid Goes “Dark”

Now, according to Jet Propulsion Lab and CalTech researcher Davide Farnocchia and colleagues, 1998 SH2 was likely steered off course as a result of jets of gas escaping from beneath the object’s surface—a phenomenon known as weak cometary outgassing—meaning that the suspected asteroid is actually probably a type of comet.

However, unlike most comets, this one showed none of the typical characteristics astronomers associate with them, including a glowing tail or coma. This helped to explain the confusion over its initial classification, and additional observations of layered composite imagery did finally reveal these features, albeit faintly.

This confirmation that the object was indeed releasing material meant that 1998 SH2 was a rare variety of space objects known as dark comets, enigmatic bodies whose subtle behavior falls somewhere between comets and asteroids.

Planetary Defense Implications

One of the more concerning aspects of the discovery involves 1998 SH2’s unexpected orbital shift, which presents the question of whether other suspected asteroids might turn out to be dark comets. If so, could any of these shifty space objects pose a risk to Earth?

Fortunately, Farnocchia and his colleagues say there is currently no indication that 1998 SH2 poses an impact threat to Earth in the foreseeable future. Still, the team’s findings do have important implications for planetary defense, since their findings underscore the possibility that additional near-Earth objects currently classified as asteroids may turn out to be hidden comets.

Given the unpredictable orbital shifts and changes in acceleration these objects display, challenges associated with identifying and tracking them could complicate long-term impact forecasts, and influence how future deflection missions are designed.

Fortunately, the team’s study also highlights beneficial findings, which include the possibility that a hidden population of dark comets could potentially resolve questions about how water was delivered throughout the early solar system, eventually making its way to a young planet Earth billions of years ago.

Additionally, such possibilities could help to explain past observations of enigmatic objects like ‘Oumuamua, the first confirmed interstellar object, whose detection in 2017 and unexplained acceleration during subsequent observations have fueled scientific debate over its origins for many years.

Farnocchia and his colleagues’ new paper, “Non-gravitational acceleration indicative of cometary activity of near-Earth object,” appeared in Nature Astronomy.

Micah Hanks is the Editor-in-Chief and Co-Founder of The Debrief. A longtime reporter on science, defense, and technology with a focus on space and astronomy, he can be reached at micah@thedebrief.org. Follow him on X @MicahHanks, and at micahhanks.com.

Welcome to this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief… a controversy has erupted in recent days with the FCC’s approval of a proof-of-concept satellite that reflects daylight to Earth at night, in a move that has astronomers concerned. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) the FCC’s approval of Reflect Orbital’s Eärendil-1 satellite, 2) what the company says about its sunlight mirror orbital technologies, 3) the sharp responses from the astronomical community, and 4) where things go from here as the demonstration satellite heads toward production.

Quote of the Week  

“While we fully support American technical innovation in space, this innovation cannot come at the cost of imperiling scientific research, which has been at the forefront of American innovation and global leadership for decades.”

– American Astronomical Society statement

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• Get all the latest stories from The Debrief, with more breaking stories at the end of this week’s newsletter.

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FCC Approves Launch of Satellite Designed to Reflect Sunlight to Earth’s Nightside

This week, in a controversial ruling that has sky watchers (and others) concerned, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved the launch of an experimental satellite crafted to reflect sunlight onto Earth after sunset.

The move has seen significant pushback from astronomers, who now warn that the technology would likely interfere with scientific observations and alter the natural appearance of the night sky.

Dubbed Eärendil 1, the satellite is being developed by the California-based Reflect Orbital as a proof-of-concept for the company’s larger, and potentially even more impactful vision: as many as 50,000 orbiting mirrors capable of directing sunlight to different regions on Earth.

While astronomers have expressed concern over the implementation of such orbital systems, the company says its satellites would offer the possibility for providing illumination after dark in select areas, which could be used to extend the operation hours for solar powered facilities.

Eärendil 1: A Case Study in Controversy

Branding itself as “the sunlight company,” Reflect Orbital says in a statement at its website that it aims to provide “clean, abundant energy available on demand,” because “reliable access to affordable energy is the foundation of human progress, economic growth, and a healthier planet.”

The satellite, which shares its name with Eärendil the Mariner, a character from J.R.R. Tolkien’s mythos, will carry an 18-by-18-meter (59-by-59-foot) reflective Mylar surface that unfolds in orbit after launch. Operating roughly 625 kilometers (390 miles) above Earth, the spacecraft is designed to redirect sunlight onto specific target areas of approximately five kilometers (three miles) in width.

Although many are sounding the alarm about the potential consequences of such technology, the Reflect Orbital says it maintains strict exclusion zones where astronomical operations or “sensitive areas” exist, and that its technology can be carefully deployed only to regions identified as target areas.

According to a FAQ page on the company’s website, the light produced by Eärendil 1 and future members of the company’s constellation will be “contained within the spot” among several other safety features it promotes. The company also says it can turn off the light quickly, and disable it at any time to prevent light from reaching Earth.

“The light is not bright enough to start fires or harm eyes,” the company’s FAQ page states, “even when viewed through a telescope, and cannot be concentrated past maximum natural sunlight irradiance.”

The company’s CEO, Ben Nowack, has argued the concept could improve the economics of solar power overall, allowing Earth-based power systems the ability to harvest additional sunlight before sunrise and after sunset.

Criticism Abounds

The proposal has drawn criticism from several groups, particularly the American Astronomical Society (AAS), which urged the FCC to reject the application.

“The American Astronomical Society (AAS) is dismayed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) decision on 9 July to grant a license to Reflect Orbital,” the organization said in a statement following the FCC ruling. “As the AAS expressed to the FCC, Reflect Orbital’s proposed satellite, which would reflect sunlight back to Earth at night, carries the potential for significant harm to our members and the broader community of those who depend on a dark night sky.”

“This harm could include damage to sensitive research telescope equipment, potential flash-blinding of pilots and drivers, and — as Reflect Orbital stated in its own FCC filings — potential permanent eye damage to anyone looking through a mid-sized telescope,” the AAS statement adds, noting what appears to be a sharp contrast between information contained in FCC filings, and that which appears on the company’s website.

Further, research cited by the AAS suggests that a full constellation of Reflect Orbital satellites could increase nighttime sky brightness by a factor of two to three, even at remote observatories, due to atmospheric scattering of the reflected light.

“While we fully support American technical innovation in space, this innovation cannot come at the cost of imperiling scientific research, which has been at the forefront of American innovation and global leadership for decades,” the AAS statement concludes.

Beyond FCC Authority

However, in the wording featured in the agency’s approval, the FCC concluded that such concerns fall outside its authority, which is primarily limited to regulating the use of radio-frequency spectrum, adding that it believes the overall likelihood of injury resulting from the launch of the proof-of-concept satellite to be low.

In the meantime, while the FCC’s approval marks an early win for Reflect Orbital, the company has said that it is planning to have independent research commissioned to help assess the technology’s environmental and scientific impacts. Additionally, the company says it plans to coordinate with the National Science Foundation to help ensure that its efforts align with those of the broader scientific community.

Fundamentally, the AAS’s disappointment—a view expressed by other members of the scientific community, argues that the ruling presents broader questions about who should oversee the environmental consequences of future space-based illumination projects, especially if such systems end up becoming more widespread in the years ahead.

“In the absence of another licensing agency that could take these considerations into account, we believe that it is critical for the FCC to consider all of the impacts of the satellite’s use case,” the AAS said in its statement this week.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

Here are the top stories we’re covering right now…

Welcome to this special star-spangled edition of The Intelligence Brief… In this installment, as America celebrates its 250th birthday amid record-breaking summer heat and mounting pressure on the nation’s power grid, we take a broader look at the technological revolutions that have shaped the United States—and the artificial intelligence revolution now poised to redefine its future. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how successive innovations transformed American society over the past two and a half centuries, 2) why artificial intelligence may represent the next great technological leap, 3) the extraordinary scientific opportunities AI is already creating alongside the risks and disruptions it presents, and 4) why the choices we make today about this transformative technology could help determine the course of America’s next 250 years. 

Quote of the Week

“America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination, and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand.”

— Harry S. Truman

If you enjoy the news and perspectives offered by The Debrief, make sure that you aren’t missing our stories by making us one of your “preferred sources” on Google News. You can simply follow this link to add The Debrief to your list of favorites, and you can read more about Google’s preferred sources in our article here.

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America at 250: The Heat is On

Depending on where you are at the time you’re reading this, you may have noticed the temperature. Safe to say, summer has arrived.

One reason involves the “heat dome” that is covering much of the East Coast and the Midwest, with temperatures topping 100 degrees across large portions of the U.S., including the nation’s capital. As a result, the country’s power system is undergoing inevitable strain as extreme heat warnings have prompted grid operators to warn about surges in air-conditioning use throughout the nation, with many systems expected to operate less than optimally amid such temperatures.

All of this arrives just in time for America’s 250th birthday, with Independence Day celebrations falling on a weekend that is certain to be memorable for more than just the extreme heat, since this year’s celebration marks our nation’s semiquincentennial.

“Reaching 250 years is a significant event for any nation,” read a statement by the Sandra Day O’Connor Institute in honor of the forthcoming holiday. “It offers a chance to learn more about how the United States began, how it grew, and how it has changed over time. Every era of American history has shaped the present in some way, from early settlements to westward expansion, from war and invention to civic achievements and cultural growth.”

Something else that this special Independence Day offers us is an opportunity to reflect on how successive technological revolutions have influenced our nation’s growth since its inception, and where the cutting-edge technologies of today are likely to carry us going forward.

America’s Tradition of Technological Revolutions

We’ve come a long way since 1776. Back in the days during which the Declaration of Independence was signed, the speed of information was constrained to how fast a horse could carry its rider, or how strong the winds were that could propel a ship across water.

Under such conditions, pens and ink were used to preserve ideas on paper that could take weeks to make its way from locations like Philadelphia to other parts of the colonies. With such technological limitations, human political organization was similarly constrained.

Over the last two and a half centuries, we have seen most of those limitations fall away, with new inventions advancing progress, and eventually being overtaken by even newer, bolder ideas and inventions. Our steam engines helped remove geographic constraints, only to be replaced by aircraft, automobiles, and conveyances propelled by electrical power.

Similarly, the telegraph helped collapse the imposition of time that once hindered communication; its successors, like radio, the telephone, the Internet, Smartphones, and a host of other mobile communications technologies, have now placed instantaneous global communication at our fingertips.

And now we are on the cusp of another great American technological transition: one that very likely will rival any that came before it.

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

It is difficult to even compare artificial intelligence to any other potentially revolution-inducing technology in our nation’s history. As America turns 250 and we look back on the progress that has brought us to the present day, one must also wonder how history will look back on the advent of this technology: will we recognize the implementation of AI as another innovation that breaks significant barriers that constrained human achievement, as time and geography once did?

Or will the advent of AI be remembered differently? Science fiction affords us alternative scenarios that most of us are quite familiar with already, and the real possibility that AI could spell trouble for us in the years ahead remains ever-present. Where things go from here, understandably, has a lot to do with the question of what humans choose to use this technology for, and how we go about implementing it.

Yes, scientific progress is accelerating, and AI is helping with that. Discoveries are arriving faster not only because scientists are working harder, but because the tools they’re using—especially AI—are helping them achieve more, and increasing our productivity and overall capability to levels that dramatically exceed what humans alone can do.

From the design of new proteins in the lab and the identification of obscure exoplanets within mountains of astronomical data, to the acceleration of materials science and a range of other fields, much of what we are seeing AI help us achieve right now bears the promise of a brighter future. But should that hopeful vision for a better future be taken for granted?

There are obvious reasons for caution, since virtually every major technological revolution brings not only opportunities, but also disruption. New sources of technology replace old ones, and thereby require new skills to be leveraged. The result of this obsolescence often extends to those in the workforce whose expertise once propelled these predecessor technologies; once the technologies have fallen out of use (sometimes with remarkable speed), the human workers once tasked with building them are left having to find new professions.

Myriad examples of similar past technological scenarios exist that encourage such concerns. Nuclear physics gave us clean energy, but also nuclear weapons; the internet connected billions of people—and each day, it enables the spread of misinformation into our homes, along with the potential for unwarranted surveillance and cybercrime.

AI will almost certainly follow a similar pattern to every other major technological revolution that America, and the world at large, has ever seen. So the question isn’t one of whether it will change our society: we already know the answer to that.

The question here has more to do with how we will use this technology, and what we will allow it to do for us—and to us—as it progresses.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp’s Interesting CNBC Interview

To conclude on a somewhat odd, yet also an extremely relevant note in the context of what we’re discussing here, some interesting exchanges aired recently on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” during a live segment featuring Palantir CEO Alex Karp.

Anyone who watches this will understand both the relevance, as well as my choice in characterizing it as “odd,” given the strange, rambling nature of Karp’s interview (admittedly, some have been a bit less gracious in how they’ve characterized the recent appearance).

Rather than discussing Palantir and Nvidia’s recent work for the United States government in assembling its new AI infrastructure, Karp appeared to have something else on his mind: the looming prospect of a financial bubble underlying the current boom in AI technology.

“Something has gone completely wrong,” Karp said at one point during one of the rambling exchanges, where he appeared to be addressing the token model currently employed by leading AI companies amid rising costs, as industry leaders continue to seek returns on investment.

“The basic view among enterprises in this country is I’m going to chillax and waste my time with tokens,” Karp said. In another portion of the diatribe, Karp aired his concerns about how current AI models have been “irresponsibly” oversold, which he called “dangerous for everyone, which is why I can give [AI] to all your adversaries but I can’t give it to the Department of War, or I can’t safely give it to an enterprise in this country, without being certain that the Alpha of that business could transfer to this model tomorrow, i.e. I have no business, no job.”

When chided by host Becky Quick for sounding angry, Karp shot back that “This is the voice of American business that is being channeled through me.”

“Are we really going to outsource the battlefield of this country to the consensus view in Silicon Valley?” Karp also said at one point. “That is effing insane.” The entire segment can be watched here.

Uncertainty is Our Business

Although Karp’s interview was odd, to say the least, the Palantir CEO raises some important points, and as evidenced by his demeanor during the CNBC segment, much of what he discussed appears to be weighing heavily on him.

It would be safe to say that he’s probably not the only one in Silicon Valley right now experiencing a degree of unrest and uncertainty over such issues, as the current situation with AI technologies in America and around the world progresses onward into uncertain territory.

Fortunately, America’s history shows that a major driving factor in its progress has been the conviction that the next horizon is worth pursuing, even when it’s uncertain.

Yes, the unforeseeable consequences of these nascent technologies, like AI, can be sobering at times.  While it seems inevitable that the same driving forces that have driven past industrial revolutions will also drive humans to build smarter, and increasingly more powerful machines, hopefully, we will also remember that wisdom is required in knowing how to use them.

If we can do that, then perhaps America’s progress can continue for another 250 years, and the technologies we are innovating in the present day can indeed help us to build a brighter future for tomorrow.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

Here are the top stories we’re covering right now…