Chinese scientists at the Beijing Institute of Technology have run satellite proximity simulations to extend potentially hostile observation of U.S. space assets in Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), seemingly inching both countries closer to a potential war in space.

Although the new simulations focus on orbital adjustments to extend observation times and increase proximity to U.S. satellites, including critical missile warning and other space defense-oriented systems, Chinese scientists also plan to integrate reinforcement learning methods into future space assets to give satellites even more independence from human operators.

Study Includes Accusations of Cold War in Space Activities

In the 20th century, the concept of war in space remained mostly in the realm of science fiction, as depicted in popular films like Star Wars. Today, advances in space access, orbital maneuvering technologies, and weapons systems have made the possibility of a future conflict in space a very real security concern, and several nations engage in espionage using reconnaissance spacecraft to obtain information on valuable defense targets in Earth’s orbit.

According to the authors of the new study, “acquiring multi-aspect payload information of non-cooperative targets to infer their functions and mission statuses is of great significance for space security assessment.”

The study authors highlight a series of relative motion configurations that modern spy satellites employ, including fly-around, hovering, and drifting flight. They also point to real-world “adversarial” U.S missions they suggest were designed to gather intelligence on their GEO defense assets.

“Since 2014, the US GSSAP (United States Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program) satellite has carried out hundreds of maneuvers and has conducted close observation operations on dozens of normally working satellites near GEO orbit,” the Beijing University of Technology scientists write.

The study authors also include a specific July 2021 accusation, where they charge that “the U.S. satellite ‘USA-271’ deliberately approached the operational ‘Practice 20’ satellite in geostationary orbit and flew in close proximity.”

In an email to The Debrief, a U.S. Space Command Spokesperson did not address the specific incident or the accusations of “dozens” of similar operations, but offered some insight into the agency’s thinking.

“USSPACECOM, working with allies and partners, plans, executes, and integrates military spacepower into multi-domain global operations in order to deter aggression, defend national interests, and when necessary, defeat threats,” the spokesperson told The Debrief, adding that “we have nothing additional to add in response to the article.”

Getting Closer to Adversarial Satellites and Extending Observation Time

In a step toward potential dogfights between satellites, the Chinese scientists looked at several challenges faced by current spy satellites.

For example, they explain, since most spacecraft observation cameras are mounted in a fixed position, “frequent large-angle attitude maneuvers are time-consuming and consume substantial fuel.” The researcher also noted that several different angles and approaches could yield different categories of intelligence data.

However, changing angles and orbital planes requires fuel, an extremely limited resource in GEO. Therefore, the researcher accounting for all the variables required to gather intelligence on adversarial spacecraft as efficiently as possible “has become a key bottleneck in enhancing space situational awareness capabilities.”

To find an optimized solution, the team designed what they called a “waypoint trajectory planning scheme” and a “multi-impulse maneuver strategy” using a common game-theory tool called “minimum integral squared control” theory. Unlike previous research aimed at extending spy satellite observation time and fuel efficiency, the Chinese scientists said their use of sequential coalition game theory “is introduced for the first time into the multi-model combined observation problem.”

Next, the researchers designed a “game tree.” A press release said this approach lets the spacecraft select the “optimal combination of initial motion points and close-range operation models at each stage under minimum fuel constraints, thereby generating an optimal observation strategy sequence.”

Finally, the researchers ran simulations to see whether their approach improved sensor observation times and field of view while reducing fuel use.

Successful Simulations and Future Reinforcement Learning Plans

As hoped, the Beijing University of Technology team said their simulations supported the theories. Specifically, the study authors said the simulations showed that their spacecraft efficiency algorithm “can successfully generate a multi-model combined observation strategy sequence under minimum fuel constraints.”

“The effective observation time increases with larger observation distances and field-of-view angles, and reducing the model configuration size also contributes to improved observation performance,” they explained. The study authors also said that the simulation results “demonstrate that the algorithm can successfully generate the optimal combined observation sequence under minimum fuel constraints.”

When discussing next steps, the Chinese scientists said they will explore optimal initial points to further improve maneuver efficiency. They also plan to explore a “reinforcement learning method,” suggesting future spacecraft could learn and adapt to evolving conditions to further enhance their cold war in space information-gathering capabilities.

Study’s War in Space Implications “Extends Beyond any Single Algorithm”

To understand the potential implications of the Chinese study, including its impacts on a potential future war in space, The Debrief reached out to former U.S. Air Force officer Shelli Brunswick, CEO and Founder, SB Global LLC.

According to the author and futurist, the Chinese team’s research matters not just because it proves China has deployed a “new operational surveillance capability.” Instead, Brunswick said that the work is significant because it “illustrates how sophisticated coordination and optimization could make spacecraft observation more efficient, persistent, and strategically useful.”

The Blue Marble Space Visiting Scholar also told The Debrief that the work “should not be interpreted as demonstrating a complete pursuit-and-evasion capability against a spacecraft that is actively responding,” since the work assumes a stationary target without maneuvering capabilities. Still, Brunswick noted, the Chinese framework “shows how game-theoretic planning could help an observing satellite gather information from multiple angles while managing limited resources.”

When discussing the potential implications for the broader U.S.-China space-security competition, including how such enhanced spacecraft could lead to more activities that could be construed as hostile, the space strategist said this area of research “extends beyond any single algorithm.”

“As rendezvous and proximity operations become more sophisticated, the line between inspection, space situational awareness, intelligence gathering, and potentially threatening behavior becomes increasingly difficult to interpret,” she explained.

When suggesting what potential strategic responses the U.S. and its allies might employ in the emerging cold war in space, Brunswick told The Debrief that they should include “more resilient architectures, improved space-domain awareness, clearer expectations for close approaches, stronger communication mechanisms, and deeper coordination with commercial and international partners.”

“The challenge is not simply detecting another spacecraft—it is understanding capability and intent early enough to respond responsibly and effectively,” Brunswick explained.

The study “Spacecraft Proximity Operation Model-Based Sequential Coalitional Observation Game Strategy Design” was published in Space: Science & Technology. 

Christopher Plain has spent the last six years as Associate News Editor and Head Science Reporter at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his novels at plainfiction.com, or email him at christopher@thedebrief.org.

Welcome to this edition of The Intelligence Brief... This week, the United States, China, and other world powers are developing increasingly sophisticated military capabilities in space, raising concerns that Earth’s orbit could become a critical battlefield in future conflicts. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how China’s secretive Shenlong spaceplane and recent orbital maneuvers reveal Beijing’s growing counterspace capabilities, 2) how the U.S. and its allies are responding as spacecraft increasingly demonstrate “dogfighting,” rendezvous, and other potentially military operations, 3) why Russia’s longstanding pursuit of anti-satellite weapons—including potentially nuclear-armed orbital systems—adds another dimension to the emerging threat, and 4) how growing military dependence on satellites could create dangerous new vulnerabilities and pathways for escalation between nuclear-armed powers.

Quote of the Week

“We must be well-prepared for conflict in space. And if deterrence fails, we will fight and win.”

– US Space Command chief General Stephen Whiting

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U.S. and China Are Preparing for a New Kind of Warfare in Space

Military competition between the U.S. and China is ramping up, according to new developments that showcase how both nations are developing maneuverable spacecraft, counterspace weapons, and other technologies with the potential to shape the orbital battlefield of tomorrow.

The developments, first reported by Reuters, involve the revelation that China’s secretive uncrewed spaceplane had released a small satellite in orbit earlier this year, activity which was detected and analyzed by LeoLabs. According to the company’s analysis, the object released by the Chinese spaceplane was reportedly observed maneuvering around another Chinese satellite before returning to the spaceplane.

Launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the vast Gobi Desert, China’s spaceplane, known as Shenlong—a name meaning “Divine Dragon”—took flight on its current mission in February. With the new confirmation of an orbital test based on LeoLabs data, the recent developments offer a clear demonstration of the increasingly sophisticated operations China is capable of conducting in orbit.

The U.S. and China’s “Arms Race” for Space

Of course, the United States also has its own secretive reusable spaceplane—the Boeing X-37B—and similarities between the two spacecraft have drawn notable comparisons in the past. Although much about its missions remains undisclosed, the X-37B serves as an orbital test platform for experimental technologies, while the U.S. Space Force is developing both defensive and offensive capabilities intended to protect American interests in space and counter potential adversaries.

“The Chinese are rapidly developing capabilities,” including ground- and space-based weapons designed to interfere with or destroy targets, U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said in July, describing the threat as “substantial.”

Examples of what U.S. officials have characterized as orbital “dogfighting” have already been demonstrated by China, which includes incidents where multiple spacecraft reportedly maneuvered in close proximity, along with the apparent capture and relocation of defunct satellites. Orbital refueling capabilities are also believed to be in development that could significantly extend the operational lives of such spacecraft and their related orbital technologies.

In response to the Chinese demonstrations, the U.S. and other nations have engaged in similar efforts, which include an American military satellite that maneuvered near a British spacecraft last September as China’s Shiyan 12-01 experimental satellite passed roughly 83 kilometers below, an operation several experts interpreted as a demonstration of allied capabilities.

While such technologies also have legitimate civilian applications in many cases, the potential for their military use is becoming harder to ignore, and U.S. officials have warned that adversaries could attempt to target American space systems early in a future conflict—and China is by no means the only foreign adversary nation engaged in the development of such technologies.

Warfare in Earth’s Orbit

In August, a research article funded by the Russia Strategic Initiative, U.S. European Command, examined Russia’s pursuit of anti-satellite weapons, which have deep roots in Soviet nuclear strategy. Such decades-old efforts focused on disabling U.S. satellites, which were viewed as a potential means of disrupting early warning, communications, and command-and-control systems during a major conflict.

Today, such Cold War-era concerns have resurfaced, as Russian military thinking has expanded to include more destructive counterspace capabilities, which may include nuclear-armed orbital systems designed to disable large numbers of satellites at once. This raises the prospect that Moscow could attempt to effectively take low-Earth orbit offline should a major conflict occur, thereby disabling critical communications systems relied on by the U.S. and other nations.

Concerns over such capabilities apparently aren’t mere speculation. In 2024, the Pentagon revealed that Russia had launched a satellite it assessed was likely a counter-space weapon, believed to be capable of attacking and disabling other satellites in low-Earth orbit.

Space Warfare and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape

The broader challenge facing the United States and its allies is that space has become indispensable to modern warfare, while also simultaneously becoming increasingly vulnerable to attack.

Western militaries are heavily reliant on satellites for communications systems, as well as GPS navigation, missile warning, precision targeting, intelligence gathering, and a range of other capabilities. Equally problematic is that many civilian and commercial systems rely on the same orbital infrastructure.

Right now, Russia and China are believed to be developing counterspace capabilities ranging from electronic jamming, cyberattacks, and directed-energy systems to anti-satellite missiles and maneuverable spacecraft capable of approaching other satellites.

Fundamentally, this creates a difficult issue in terms of deterrence, since an adversary might disrupt a critical satellite without physically destroying it, making attribution and determining an appropriate military response far more complicated than simply responding to a conventional attack. Further, the ongoing integration of commercial systems with military operations may increase the likelihood of attacks that could target non-military targets.

Altogether, the emerging picture is more than just one involving whether the next major war could extend into Earth’s orbit: it is a question of how, and to what extent, future attacks on spacecraft by adversary nations could affect events back on Earth, and what the longer-term implications could be for communications, navigation, and other capabilities upon which civilians increasingly rely—all while creating new pathways for escalation between nuclear-armed world powers.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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