The NASA Exoplanet Exploration Program (ExEP) has a curated list of 164 nearest Sun-like stars that are easily visible from Earth. This list represents the first targets for a proposed large space telescope specially designed to find life in the universe, currently known as the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). 

After the HWO is completed, likely sometime in the 2040s, scientists will use the specialized telescope to directly image planets in those star systems. The telescope will search around Sun-like stars for planets in a region known as the habitable zone, where temperatures allow liquid water to exist. Scientists hope to find Earth-like planets with liquid water in the habitable zones of other stars.

While the 164 stars on ExEP’s list have qualities that make them good candidates for study, it remains unknown how many actually have terrestrial planets within their habitable zones. A team of scientists at Arizona State University used simulated data for ExEP’s 164 stars and their hypothetical planetary systems to assess which are most likely to have habitable worlds. Their results would help the HWO prioritize which star systems to observe.

The team started with a subset of 134 stars on ExEP’s list with no known exoplanets, giving researchers the freedom to simulate potential worlds around them. They used a software model called the DYNAmical Multi-planet Injection TEster (DYNAMITE) to predict the possibility that an unseen planet exists around each star by generating 100,000 simulated planetary systems around it. The simulations use mathematical formulas based on observations of real exoplanets to determine the sizes and orbital characteristics of hypothetical gas giants and rocky exoplanets. DYNAMITE then determines whether these planetary systems would be stable and include a terrestrial exoplanet in the star’s habitable zone.

The other 30 stars in the ExEP’s list have known exoplanets, but none of them are rocky planets in habitable zones. To predict whether these stars have unseen terrestrial planets in their habitable zones, the team used the same DYNAMITE process as before with the additional requirement that each star must have an exoplanet matching the one already found.

The space around a Sun-like star can be divided into three regions. The region closest to the star is too hot for liquid water to persist on an exoplanet’s surface, while the region farthest from the star is so cold that any water on an exoplanet would be frozen solid. Between these lies the habitable zone, where temperatures would allow liquid water to exist. However, it’s also possible that a combination of light and gravity could create habitable temperatures on large enough moons orbiting gas giants even beyond a star’s main habitable zone. Illustration by Andrew Bizal.

To increase the chances of finding a terrestrial planet in a habitable zone, the team also investigated potentially habitable moons orbiting gas giants in these systems. For each simulation that included a gas giant, the team inserted between 2 and 23 moons, with masses between 10% of Earth’s Moon and 50% of Earth. Then they simulated the surface temperatures of these moons based on how much starlight they receive and how strongly their host planet pulls on them. They deemed the moons potentially habitable if they were large enough to retain an atmosphere and had a temperature ideal for liquid water, even if they were not technically in their stars’ habitable zones.

For each star, the team calculated a metric based on the probabilities that the star had a terrestrial planet in its habitable zone, that the planet would remain in a stable habitable zone for at least 2 billion years, and that the star had a potentially habitable moon. They called this probability statistic a ranking metric and used it to compare star systems. 

Based on the ranking metric, the team found that the dimmer and cooler stars on their list generally had better chances of hosting a habitable-zone terrestrial planet than the brighter, hotter stars. They also found that stars without known exoplanets ranked more favorably. Around 70% of the stars with known exoplanets had less than a 1% probability of hosting a terrestrial planet in their respective habitable zones. Additionally, fewer than 0.1% of their simulated moons were habitable.

Overall, the researchers concluded that the HWO should prioritize observing cooler, Sun-like stars with no known exoplanets. They claimed that the exoplanets with known characteristics in their sample set were of sizes and in positions that made it unlikely for other exoplanets to be in their systems’ habitable zones. Even with expanded habitability criteria for moons, it would be very unlikely for HWO to find another Earth orbiting a gas-giant exoplanet. They ranked 47 stars in the highest-priority category (A Tier), 51 stars in the middle category (B Tier), and 66 stars in the lowest category (C Tier) to observe with HWO. 

At the end of their study, the team remarked that the proposed HWO represents a potential next step in the search for other Earths, but scientists still need to identify the best targets for this future telescope. The HWO telescope should be able to image rocky exoplanets directly, so thorough research to prepare a list of high-priority targets will help avoid overlooking other Earths.

The post The search for habitable worlds appeared first on Sciworthy.

Now that NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is on its way toward its Lagrange Point 2 (L2) destination, more of its mission goals are coming into focus, including the possibility that it could detect an Earth-like planet orbiting a star like our own Sun using gravitational microlensing.

The Roman team said such a detection could identify targets for the proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory project, including scanning their atmospheres for signs of extraterrestrial life.

Searching for Another Earth with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

In NASA’s mission fact sheet, Roman’s planners pose several questions. These include: 

• How common are solar systems like our own?
• What kinds of planets exist in the cold, outer regions of planetary systems?
• What determines the habitability of Earth-like worlds?

Although scientists have used several methods to detect exoplanets, including Earth-like planets, Roman will employ three. These include the transit method, microlensing, and direct imaging. NASA said the combination of approaches will allow mission scientists to conduct a “sweeping search expected to uncover around 100,000 new exoplanets — a staggering leap compared to the nearly 6,200 currently known.”

“It is hoped that Roman will discover thousands of new exoplanets and significantly expand our knowledge of the diversity of planetary systems in our Galaxy,” explained Associate Professor Edita Stonkutė, an astrophysicist at Vilnius University unconnected to the Roman team, in a statement emailed to The Debrief.

Microlensing Can Reveal Earthlike Planets Orbiting Sunlike Stars

Most exoplanets have been detected by the dimming of their host star when they transit between it and Earth, giving the transit method its name. Roman plans to use that same method for most of its larger planetary detections. However, among the expected tens of thousands of transit-method detections, mission planners expect a small but sizeable percentage to come from microlensing.

NASA said the “light-bending” microlensing phenomenon occurs when two distant stars “align closely from our vantage point.” Due to the strength of the nearer star’s gravity, the light from the more distant one is “warped” around the nearer one, essentially focusing it very briefly for a distant observer.

“If the alignment is especially close, the nearer star acts like a cosmic lens, focusing and magnifying light from the background star.” Professor Stonkutė explained. “By analysing these changes, astronomers can determine that the planet exists and estimate its mass and orbital characteristics.”

Critically, Professor Stonkutė also noted that microlensing can occur with objects other than stars, including exoplanets.

“This is Precisely Where Roman Has the Edge”

Using its Wide-Field Array, Roman will monitor hundreds of millions of stars. NASA said the observatory will monitor these target stars for “tiny surges in starlight” that typically signal a microlensing event.

Although the transit method is employed to detect larger exoplanets, NASA noted that microlensing “specializes in finding planets like those in our solar system.” The space agency added that this includes “worlds as lightweight as Mars in their star’s habitable zone or farther out.”

A star’s habitable zone is typically defined as the orbital plane where an exoplanet could sustain liquid water on its surface, a key ingredient for life as we know it.

Professor Stonkutė described microlensing as “particularly valuable” since it can detect planets that are difficult to spot with other planet-hunting methods. The professor said this includes “small Earth-like planets located far from their star.” The Roman team hopes to find “more than 1,000 microlensing planets.”

The professor warned that “most microlensing events cannot be predicted in advance.” As a result, telescopes need to actively scan large areas of the sky to increase the chances of a microlensing detection

“This is precisely where Roman has the edge over other telescopes that have searched for exoplanets using different methods,” the professor added.

A “Stepping Stone” Toward NASA’s Habitable Worlds Observatory Concept

While Roman is tasked with directly imaging exoplanets, finding another Earth around a Sun-like star will still require an indirect detection, most likely from a microlensing event. However, the Roman team notes that their observatory “will provide a crucial stepping stone for NASA’s Habitable Worlds Observatory concept.”

According to the space agency, that “flagship” telescope, still awaiting final approval, “would be designed to photograph Earth-like planets for the first time ever.”

Roman may also be able to scan the atmospheres of planets detected with the transit method. The space agency said Roman “would also look for signs of life called biosignatures by measuring atmospheric gases like oxygen and ozone that could signal the presence of living things.” 

Christopher Plain is a Science Fiction and Fantasy novelist and has spent the last six years as Associate News Editor and Head Science Writer at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his books at plainfiction.com, or email him at christopher@thedebrief.org.