A climate shock that unfolded about 304 million years ago is offering scientists a dramatic warning about how quickly Earth’s climate system can amplify an initial temperature rise. During the Late Paleozoic Ice Age, a relatively modest increase in global temperatures appears to have triggered a much larger episode of warming, as methane released from thawing permafrost intensified the greenhouse effect. Researchers say the ancient event provides a powerful geological parallel for the climate changes occurring today.

The study, led by Le Yao of the Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology with contributions from University of Cincinnati geosciences professor Thomas Algeo and international colleagues, examined a short-lived warming episode during Earth’s penultimate ice age. Their findings suggest that global sea surface temperatures eventually increased by more than 7 degrees Celsius, or approximately 12 degrees Fahrenheit. The rise was not necessarily caused by one enormous initial pulse of carbon. Instead, it may have developed through a chain reaction in which warming activated additional natural sources of greenhouse gases.

The Late Paleozoic Ice Age extended across a vast span of geological time, when large ice sheets covered parts of the supercontinent Gondwana. Although the planet was in an “icehouse” state, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane still had the power to destabilize the climate. The newly analyzed warming event is particularly significant because it occurred under ice-age conditions rather than during an already warm greenhouse world. That makes it a valuable analog for the modern Earth, which still contains continent-scale ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica.

According to the researchers, the initial climate disturbance may have been linked to volcanic activity. Volcanic emissions can inject carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere, where they absorb outgoing infrared radiation and prevent some heat from escaping into space. The warming may also have been assisted by changes in Earth’s orbit. Over long cycles, variations in orbital shape alter the distribution of sunlight across the planet, influencing the growth and retreat of ice sheets and changing the seasonal balance of solar energy.

At first, the additional carbon may have produced only a limited temperature increase. But once warming crossed a critical threshold, frozen ground in high-latitude regions began to thaw. Permafrost contains large quantities of organic carbon preserved in frozen soils. When that material becomes available to microbes, decomposition can release carbon dioxide and methane. Methane is especially powerful over shorter atmospheric timescales because, molecule for molecule, it absorbs considerably more infrared radiation than carbon dioxide, even though it remains in the atmosphere for less time.

This process can create a positive climate feedback. An initial warming causes permafrost to thaw, thawing releases greenhouse gases, and the additional gases produce further warming. That extra heat can accelerate more thawing, allowing the cycle to reinforce itself. The researchers describe the ancient event as a transient global warming episode in which a comparatively modest carbon release appears to have crossed a climatic tipping point and initiated much more extensive carbon emissions from natural reservoirs.

The geological timescale of the ancient warming is also central to the study’s relevance. Algeo said the temperature change unfolded over tens of thousands of years, with warming occurring at an average rate of roughly one-tenth of a degree Celsius per 1,000 years. Modern warming is progressing far more rapidly. Researchers have observed an increase of nearly 1 degree Celsius in global sea surface temperature over approximately the past century, a rate many times faster than the average change reconstructed for the ancient event.

The comparison does not mean that Earth is destined to repeat the precise conditions of 304 million years ago. Continents, ecosystems, atmospheric composition and ice-sheet geometry were all different in the Late Paleozoic. However, the physics of greenhouse warming and the existence of carbon feedbacks remain relevant. Ancient climate records reveal how a system that appears stable can respond nonlinearly when warming activates processes capable of releasing additional greenhouse gases.

The findings also place human history in a broader planetary context. All recorded human civilization has developed during the most recent ice age, despite the fact that the term can sound incompatible with today’s climate. In scientific usage, Earth remains in an ice age because substantial permanent ice sheets still exist in Greenland and Antarctica. The ancient warming episode matters precisely because it demonstrates that an ice age does not guarantee a permanently cold or stable climate. Even within an icehouse world, a small disturbance can trigger rapid and substantial changes when reinforcing feedbacks are engaged.

The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, underscores why scientists closely monitor permafrost, polar ice and other climate-sensitive carbon stores. The ancient record cannot provide an exact forecast of future warming, but it shows that Earth’s climate has repeatedly responded to carbon disturbances with amplifying feedbacks. As modern emissions continue to raise temperatures at an exceptional rate, the geological evidence offers a clear message: the danger lies not only in the carbon released directly by human activity, but also in the natural carbon sources that warming can unlock.

Subject of Research: Ancient global warming, permafrost methane feedbacks, and climate tipping points during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age

Article Title: A transient global warming event during Earth’s penultimate icehouse

Web References: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601643123

References: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2601643123

Image Credits: Andrew Higley, University of Cincinnati

Keywords: climate change, global warming, ice age, Late Paleozoic Ice Age, permafrost, methane, climate feedback, tipping point, paleoclimate, geology, volcanic activity, Earth’s climate history

NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission has notched up its first discovery of an exoplanet via a method known as microlensing. The planet is a “super Jupiter” known as Gaia23bra b, and TESS observed it when the planet and its host star acted as a gravitational lens, magnifying the light from a second, more distant background star.

Astronomers have several ways of finding planets beyond our solar system. The most successful of these by far – and the one that TESS was designed for – is the transit method, which is responsible for roughly 75% of all exoplanet detections to date. This approach relies on observing the periodic dimming of a star’s light as a planet passes between the star and an observer here on Earth.

The transit method does have limitations, however. The main limitation is that we can see transits for only a small number of planets, namely those with orbital planes that are almost exactly edge-on to Earth. An alternative approach known as photometric microlensing is somewhat more flexible in this respect, as it relies on the star-planet system magnifying the light from a background star, which is known as the source. This magnification occurs because the gravitational pull of the planet-star system warps space, bending and magnifying the source’s light (as Albert Einstein predicted as part of his general theory of relativity) like a lens and producing characteristic spikes in its brightness.

A second bite at the exoplanetary cherry

Astronomers initially identified a planet in the Gaia23bra system using observations made in 2023 by the European Space Agency’s now-retired Gaia space telescope. However, while Gaia picked up the unexpected brightening of a background star, it did not identify this event as coming from a binary-star system, and it could not pick out the planet itself because its observations were too sparse, explains Mallory Harris, an astronomer at the University of New Mexico, US who led the TESS study.

In the new work, Harris and colleagues scoured TESS data from the same period. Because TESS’ observations were much denser – it observed the region every 200 seconds for nearly 60 days – they were able to identify extra features in the brightness of the light curve that indicated the presence of a planet in the system. Subsequent analyses revealed that this planet is about 1.63 times the size of Jupiter, and it orbits its host – an orange dwarf star 20% smaller than our Sun – at a distance similar to that of Jupiter from our Sun.

Complementary techniques

The transit technique is particularly sensitive to planets that orbit close to their star because these planets are the most likely to transit and block out most of their host stars’ light as they pass in front of them. In contrast, Harris explains that microlensing is most sensitive to planets orbiting at Earth-like distances or further from their stars, making it better for studying planetary systems more like our own solar system. “With microlensing, we can find smaller planets with greater orbital distances, including worlds in the habitable zone of their star and even farther away,” she says.

The transit technique and microlensing are therefore complementary because each reveals a category of planet that the other may not be able to detect, adds team member Diana Dragomir. The only problem, Harris notes, is that microlensing observations are limited-time opportunities. “Microlensing events happen once and they’re gone – they don’t repeat,” Harris says. “I like to joke that we’ll probably find the first Earth analogue with microlensing and then wave at it as it goes by because we’ll never see it again.”

That said, Harris says that Gaia23bra will be an important observing target for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. “Microlensing is currently the only method capable of detecting Earth‑mass planets at Earth‑like orbital distances,” she explains. “We already knew that this technique could find planets, because it has done so in the past using ground-based observatories.

“What we demonstrated in this work is that high-cadence observations (even with low spatial precision) and high-precision long-baseline observations can work together to find a microlensing planet. And that it is possible to specifically do this by pairing TESS observations with those from another instrument.”

This synergy between long-time-scale surveys and high cadence observations could be therefore applied towards future searches for potentially habitable worlds, she tells Physics World. Although Gaia was retired last January, making it unlikely that astronomers will find many additional events via a Gaia–TESS combination, Harris adds that there could nevertheless be other microlensing planets in the past eight years of archived TESS observations. “I’m excited to see whether there are other events like this already hiding in the TESS data and whether future surveys can work together with TESS to find more microlensing planets in different parts of the galaxy,” she says.

The post Transit-based exoplanet survey finds its first microlensing exoplanet appeared first on Physics World.

Modelling finds AI-driven productivity gains in coal, oil and gas enable more emissions than applications in renewables avoid

AI-driven productivity gains enable more planet-heating pollution from fossil fuels than they avoid from renewables, a study has found.

Researchers modelled the technical potential for AI to boost clean power generation along with projections for how it can help produce coal, oil and gas. Across 64 scenarios, they found net yearly carbon pollution rose by 0.47-1.8 gigatonnes, or about 1-5% of the energy sector’s annual emissions.

Modelling finds AI-driven productivity gains in coal, oil and gas enable more emissions than applications in renewables avoid

AI-driven productivity gains enable more planet-heating pollution from fossil fuels than they avoid from renewables, a study has found.

Researchers modelled the technical potential for AI to boost clean power generation along with projections for how it can help produce coal, oil and gas. Across 64 scenarios, they found net yearly carbon pollution rose by 0.47-1.8 gigatonnes, or about 1-5% of the energy sector’s annual emissions.