A climate shock that unfolded about 304 million years ago is offering scientists a dramatic warning about how quickly Earth’s climate system can amplify an initial temperature rise. During the Late Paleozoic Ice Age, a relatively modest increase in global temperatures appears to have triggered a much larger episode of warming, as methane released from thawing permafrost intensified the greenhouse effect. Researchers say the ancient event provides a powerful geological parallel for the climate changes occurring today.

The study, led by Le Yao of the Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology with contributions from University of Cincinnati geosciences professor Thomas Algeo and international colleagues, examined a short-lived warming episode during Earth’s penultimate ice age. Their findings suggest that global sea surface temperatures eventually increased by more than 7 degrees Celsius, or approximately 12 degrees Fahrenheit. The rise was not necessarily caused by one enormous initial pulse of carbon. Instead, it may have developed through a chain reaction in which warming activated additional natural sources of greenhouse gases.

The Late Paleozoic Ice Age extended across a vast span of geological time, when large ice sheets covered parts of the supercontinent Gondwana. Although the planet was in an “icehouse” state, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane still had the power to destabilize the climate. The newly analyzed warming event is particularly significant because it occurred under ice-age conditions rather than during an already warm greenhouse world. That makes it a valuable analog for the modern Earth, which still contains continent-scale ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica.

According to the researchers, the initial climate disturbance may have been linked to volcanic activity. Volcanic emissions can inject carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere, where they absorb outgoing infrared radiation and prevent some heat from escaping into space. The warming may also have been assisted by changes in Earth’s orbit. Over long cycles, variations in orbital shape alter the distribution of sunlight across the planet, influencing the growth and retreat of ice sheets and changing the seasonal balance of solar energy.

At first, the additional carbon may have produced only a limited temperature increase. But once warming crossed a critical threshold, frozen ground in high-latitude regions began to thaw. Permafrost contains large quantities of organic carbon preserved in frozen soils. When that material becomes available to microbes, decomposition can release carbon dioxide and methane. Methane is especially powerful over shorter atmospheric timescales because, molecule for molecule, it absorbs considerably more infrared radiation than carbon dioxide, even though it remains in the atmosphere for less time.

This process can create a positive climate feedback. An initial warming causes permafrost to thaw, thawing releases greenhouse gases, and the additional gases produce further warming. That extra heat can accelerate more thawing, allowing the cycle to reinforce itself. The researchers describe the ancient event as a transient global warming episode in which a comparatively modest carbon release appears to have crossed a climatic tipping point and initiated much more extensive carbon emissions from natural reservoirs.

The geological timescale of the ancient warming is also central to the study’s relevance. Algeo said the temperature change unfolded over tens of thousands of years, with warming occurring at an average rate of roughly one-tenth of a degree Celsius per 1,000 years. Modern warming is progressing far more rapidly. Researchers have observed an increase of nearly 1 degree Celsius in global sea surface temperature over approximately the past century, a rate many times faster than the average change reconstructed for the ancient event.

The comparison does not mean that Earth is destined to repeat the precise conditions of 304 million years ago. Continents, ecosystems, atmospheric composition and ice-sheet geometry were all different in the Late Paleozoic. However, the physics of greenhouse warming and the existence of carbon feedbacks remain relevant. Ancient climate records reveal how a system that appears stable can respond nonlinearly when warming activates processes capable of releasing additional greenhouse gases.

The findings also place human history in a broader planetary context. All recorded human civilization has developed during the most recent ice age, despite the fact that the term can sound incompatible with today’s climate. In scientific usage, Earth remains in an ice age because substantial permanent ice sheets still exist in Greenland and Antarctica. The ancient warming episode matters precisely because it demonstrates that an ice age does not guarantee a permanently cold or stable climate. Even within an icehouse world, a small disturbance can trigger rapid and substantial changes when reinforcing feedbacks are engaged.

The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, underscores why scientists closely monitor permafrost, polar ice and other climate-sensitive carbon stores. The ancient record cannot provide an exact forecast of future warming, but it shows that Earth’s climate has repeatedly responded to carbon disturbances with amplifying feedbacks. As modern emissions continue to raise temperatures at an exceptional rate, the geological evidence offers a clear message: the danger lies not only in the carbon released directly by human activity, but also in the natural carbon sources that warming can unlock.

Subject of Research: Ancient global warming, permafrost methane feedbacks, and climate tipping points during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age

Article Title: A transient global warming event during Earth’s penultimate icehouse

Web References: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601643123

References: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2601643123

Image Credits: Andrew Higley, University of Cincinnati

Keywords: climate change, global warming, ice age, Late Paleozoic Ice Age, permafrost, methane, climate feedback, tipping point, paleoclimate, geology, volcanic activity, Earth’s climate history

It’s not just you — the United States is going through a record-bustingly hot summer.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the contiguous US averaged 76.89 degrees Fahrenheit in July, which is even hotter than the July 1936 Dust Bowl, an environmental and agricultural disaster marked by devastating dust storms.

Much like the Dust Bowl, which was the result of both natural and human-made factors, this year’s record-breaking temperatures are the result of a strong El Niño — a naturally occuring weather pattern — exacerbating the calamitous effects of human-caused climate change.

“It’s not good when you’re breaking records from the Dust Bowl, which we are in this case,” Yale Climate Connections meteorologist Jeff Masters told the Associated Press. “And that was a crazy sort of situation where you put tens of millions of people in motion. You had this great migration because of the drought and the heat that hit the center of the US — just a cataclysmic event in US history.”

“If we’re exceeding records from the Dust Bowl, that says that we’re in deep trouble,” Masters added.

While the heat was more concentrated in the Midwest during the Dust Bowl, all 48 lower states experienced excessive heat this summer — at least one degree Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average.

And instead of focusing on ways to fight the effects of climate change, much of the country is moving in the opposite direction. The Trump administration is closely aligned with the fossil fuel industry and is actively seeking to reopen coal-burning plants. AI data centers powered by gas generators are compounding a major uptick in greenhouse gas emissions.

The result is a country literally on fire, while suffering the second-worst July drought conditions on record for the contiguous US, according to Yale Climate Connections. Per the US Drought Monitor, a whopping 71 percent of the contiguous US experienced abnormal dryness or drought during the first week of August, coming on top of billions of dollars in direct damages during the first half of 2026.

Meanwhile, major wildfires continue to burn across both the US and Canada, exposing millions to dangerous levels of air pollution and causing an estimated 4,000 premature deaths across the continent within a single week last month, according to The Economist.

The prognosis is just as grim as one might think.

“This may be one of the coolest years we’re gonna experience for the rest of our lives,” Masters told the AP.

To give humanity a fighting chance we need to “stop burning so many fossil fuels,” he added. “We also need to be spending money to adapt to the new climate that we’ve put in place.”

More on climate change: AI Data Centers Are Causing Unfathomable Amounts of Air Pollution, and It Gets Worse With Each New One They Build

The post It’s Official: This Is the Hottest America Has Ever Been appeared first on Futurism.

The Met Office has quietly axed its dedicated wind and storms chapter from its annual climate report – just as decades of data show UK wind speeds are falling. Funny that, says the Daily Sceptic's Environment Editor.

The post Cherry-Picking Met Office Drops Declining Wind Speed Chapter From Its Latest Annual Climate Report appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

Water levels in rivers across Europe are reaching astonishing lows lately as a record heatwave continues to bake much of the continent.

Images captured by the European Union’s Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite revealed the extraordinary extent of the drought, which is clearly desiccating Europe’s major waterways. Water levels in one of those rivers, the Danube, have become so low that ancient ruins are beginning to surface for the first time in centuries.

As Reuters reported, the portion of the Danube that flows through Bulgaria has slowed to a mere trickle, revealing foundations of the Constantine Bridge, a nearly 1,700 year-old structure that was opened for business back during the rule of Roman Emperor Constantine the Great in the year 328 AD.

Though the bridge is believed to have been destroyed just a few decades after it was finished, researchers regard it as among the longest bridges engineered by the Roman Empire, a marvel of ancient engineering. Though receding water levels come with plenty of downsides, Pavel Popov, a Bulgarian archeologist with the Pleven Regional Historical Museum told Reuters that the droughts do offer a unique opportunity to study the ancient wonder.

“For archaeologists, these moments are ​extremely valuable because nature briefly reveals an object that ​is hidden beneath the Danube for most of the time,” Popov explained. “It gives us ​a rare opportunity to observe, document and study it ​in its real environment.”

After the ruins surfaced, Reuters reports that local researchers used drones to survey the exposed ruins, with the low water levels offering a chance to trace the bridge’s physical footprint and evaluate the condition of the foundation materials.

Numerous other treasures have surfaced across the Danube, like the remains of a mammoth tusk in the Bulgarian village of Ryahovo, and a sunken Nazi warship near the Croatian town of Opatovac.

More on climate change: El Niño Already Killing Thousands in Europe

The post Droughts Are Getting So Intense That Ancient Ruins Are Beginning to Surface From Dried Up Rivers appeared first on Futurism.

The economist John Maynard Keynes once remarked, “In the long run we are all dead.” From an astronomical standpoint, this is true for the Earth itself. In roughly 5 billion years, the Sun will exhaust the hydrogen at its core and enter the next phase of its life as a Red Giant, where it will swell up large enough to engulf and destroy the Earth.

Currently, the Sun is still in its main-sequence phase, where it fuses hydrogen into helium in its core. Although it remains relatively stable during this phase, it will gradually grow brighter with time. As the Sun shines brighter, the increased heat and radiation will raise Earth’s surface temperature, potentially pushing it past the threshold for life to survive. 

One of Earth’s geological processes that helps regulate its surface temperature is the carbon cycle. Over millions of years, carbon moves from the Earth’s interior into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or CO₂, where it functions as a greenhouse gas that traps heat. Plants take in this CO₂ through photosynthesis and move carbon through the biosphere. 

Meanwhile, rain and rock weathering draw carbon into the oceans and rocks. By pulling CO₂ out of the atmosphere, the carbon cycle could mitigate Earth’s warming as the Sun brightens over time. Today, human activities are increasing atmospheric CO₂ and warming the planet. However, over billions of years, the carbon cycle could gradually remove enough CO₂ from the atmosphere that eventually too little would remain to support photosynthesis. 

With these challenges to life on Earth in mind, the researchers Jacob Haqq‐Misra and Eric Wolf investigated how long Earth’s biosphere could last in the distant future. The team used computer models to calculate the balance of energy that Earth would receive and emit over time, accounting for the effects of increasing sunlight and changing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. They followed this up with calculations using the ExoCAM model to determine the temperature and atmospheric conditions of future Earth across different latitudes. They related these conditions to a habitability metric to determine their impact on the biosphere.

To estimate the biosphere’s maximum possible lifespan, the team conducted 29 simulations representing the planet’s conditions over the next 2 billion years. In one set of simulations, the Earth’s carbon cycle contributed little to regulating surface temperature, with the atmosphere’s CO₂ concentration fixed at approximately modern levels of 400 parts per million (ppm) and surface temperatures continuing to increase. In another, the carbon cycle worked to keep Earth’s average surface temperature fixed at the modern average of approximately 59℉ (15℃), no matter how much it had to reduce CO₂ in the atmosphere. 

In the scenario with a fixed CO₂ concentration, the team found that in 1.7 billion years, Earth’s surface reached an average of 122°F (50°C), which is too hot for most land plants. After 1.9 billion years, it reached 149°F (65°), becoming too hot for all land plants to survive as temperatures continued to rise. 

They also found that in the fixed average surface temperature scenario, atmospheric CO₂ dropped below the 150 ppm level that most plants require for photosynthesis within 500 million years. After 1.4 billion years, CO₂ levels fell below 10 ppm, leaving only a few land photosynthesizers and aquatic plants alive. After about 1.8 billion years, atmospheric CO₂ dropped to 1 ppm, leaving only microbes capable of photosynthesis.

The researchers’ findings generally extend the estimated lifetime of Earth’s future biosphere compared with earlier, simpler models that suggested maximum lifespans of 100 million to 1.5 billion years. However, they clarified that other scientists should verify their results by running tests with other models, especially under extreme conditions of high incoming solar radiation and low atmospheric CO₂. 

Lastly, Haqq‐Misra and Wolf noted that their model did not account for major evolutionary changes that could help life adapt to future conditions. Over time, plants could evolve to tolerate higher temperatures or lower atmospheric CO₂ levels. Future humans or another intelligent species might also engage in large-scale geoengineering projects to prevent the end of life on Earth. If life on Earth proves adaptable enough, the biosphere may endure until a Red Giant fills the daytime sky.

The post The long-term fate of Earth’s biosphere appeared first on Sciworthy.