Back in 2023 and into 2024, as the hyperscalers announced massive data center expansions and plans for gigawatt-scale facilities, I was in boardrooms explaining why these timelines were unrealistic. The response was often a polite dismissal. The vendors were confident. The press was enthusiastic. And I was, well, the guy asking uncomfortable questions about power grids and infrastructure realities.

Now, in 2026, articles are confirming exactly what I and others who understand infrastructure have been saying all along. These massive data center projects are being delayed or canceled. Power shortages are creating bottlenecks across the industry. The grid simply cannot support the ambitions announced with such fanfare just a few years ago.

It wasn’t a mysterious formula to crack. It was simple math. And the math said the timeline was impossible.

Enterprises left holding the bag

If your AI road map relies on the abundant cloud capacity vendors promised, you’re likely facing tough conversations right now, and your AI growth plans are feeling pain. The promised compute doesn’t exist as advertised, and you’re scrambling to decide next steps. Looking inward is the only option at this point.

The vendors had every incentive to sell their vision with confidence and enthusiasm. When you’re a hyperscaler announcing a 10-billion-dollar data center campus, you’re in the business of capturing mindshare and customer commitment. While this strategy boosts sales, it fosters dangerous assumptions from customers. The enterprises that are struggling right now relied on vendor promises without doing their own analysis. They trusted the vendors to be right or, at least, close enough. They built their plans around the promises. When reality doesn’t match up, they are left holding the bag.

I speak frankly with my clients, and I’ll say it plainly here. You must do your own analysis. Vendors aren’t malicious, but their incentives don’t perfectly align with yours. They want your business, which means painting rosy pictures of capacity and timelines. You need someone to look out for your interests, and that person must be internal or a trusted advisor without a stake in selling you cloud services.

Two years ago, I was warning clients that the promised AI capacity was a fantasy for most organizations within the stated time frames. My advice was to plan for constraints, to build flexibility into infrastructure strategy, and to assume that the needed compute would be harder to get than the vendors suggested. Many clients nodded politely and went back to assuming the vendors would deliver. Some suggested I was too pessimistic.

The enterprises that took my advice seriously are in a much better position today. They planned for constraints. They chose hybrid strategies. They didn’t bet everything on hyperscaler promises that were never realistic. They’re not happy with the situation, but they’re not panicking either. For enterprises still scrambling, the first step is to admit that the old plan is dead. You cannot execute an infrastructure strategy built on vendor promises that never materialized. You need a new plan that accounts for real power constraints, real timeline challenges, and real competition for limited compute resources.

The grid isn’t expanding fast enough. Nearly half of all new US data center builds are being delayed or canceled. Yet AI demand continues to grow. These realities don’t care about your road map or your executive commitments.

Three realities to plan for

So, how should enterprises plan for future infrastructure growth? Let me offer three realities that need to be part of your planning process going forward.

1. First, assume constraints. Every infrastructure plan should assume you won’t get the power, space, or compute you want within the time frame you need. Build your strategies around limitations, not abundance. This isn’t pessimism; it’s realism. If the limitations hit, you’re ahead of the game. If they don’t materialize, you’ve simply over-engineered your solution and you can scale back.
2. Second, build for flexibility. The days of locking into single-vendor strategies based on promised capacity are over. You need infrastructure strategies that can adapt as reality unfolds. That means maintaining options, keeping relationships with multiple providers, and building architectures that can shift workloads as conditions change. The enterprises that will succeed aren’t the ones who picked the right hyperscaler. They’re the ones who didn’t put all their eggs in one basket.
3. Third, do the math yourself. When a vendor shares future capacity plans, analyze whether they’re realistic. Review power infrastructure constraints. Review construction timelines. Review historical patterns of delivery versus promises. Make vendors substantiate their commitments in writing with enforceable accountability clauses. Protect your organization from optimistic sales projections that don’t align with operational realities.

Hype never stops

The AI capacity crisis we’re living through was predictable. Those who predicted it were largely ignored because the message wasn’t what people wanted to hear. But that’s always the way infrastructure reality works. The grid can only expand so fast. Power capacity has real limits. Massive new demands create real bottlenecks.

The vendors will keep selling the vision. The press will keep covering the announcements. And the hype will continue to outpace reality. Your job is to be skeptical. Your job is to build infrastructure strategies that work in the world that actually exists, not the world that vendors are selling.

My warnings two years ago about the data center capacity crisis were right. I expect to continue being right. The question is whether enterprises will finally start listening before the next wave of unrealistic vendor and media promises leads to the next round of painful corrections.

As always, the choice is yours.

Microsoft is betting that the integration of HorizonDB, the cloud-native PostgreSQL alternative it is developing, with Azure will attract more enterprise AI and agentic workloads to its cloud services.

Enterprises may not be willing to take that bet.

It’s been nine months since Microsoft unveiled HorizonDB, but the service remains in public preview with no announced general availability date. Why put AI projects on hold waiting for HorizonDB to arrive, when AWS, Google, Databricks, Snowflake, and others already have production-ready PostgreSQL services positioned for the same AI workloads that Microsoft says it is building HorizonDB to handle?

AWS has had the longest head start. Aurora PostgreSQL became generally available in 2017 and has since evolved from a cloud-native PostgreSQL database into an AI-ready service with vector search and integrations with Amazon Bedrock. Similarly, Google’s AlloyDB, which followed in 2022, now includes AlloyDB AI with vector search, embeddings and model interaction for generative AI and agentic applications.

Databricks and Snowflake, too, have their own platform-centric services in the form of Lakebase, which became generally available on AWS and Azure this year, and Snowflake Postgres, which was made generally available in February 2026.

As the latecomer, when Microsoft pitched HorizonDB at Ignite in November 2025 it talked up its new architectural approach to cloud-native PostgreSQL, built around disaggregated compute and storage and a database-as-log design. The hyperscaler also positioned native vector search and deep integration with Foundry and Fabric as key differentiators for AI-heavy workloads.

No reason to wait

Those architectural differences may not be compelling enough for CIOs to wait for HorizonDB to become generally available, though.

“Most enterprises with urgent needs will not wait. A long preview window creates uncertainty around SLAs, pricing, operational maturity, and roadmap confidence,” said David Linthicum, an independent cloud consultant.

And, said Stephanie Walter, practice lead of AI stack at Hyperframe Research, enterprises cannot build mission-critical production plans around an undefined GA date, regional footprint or support commitment.

Given the difficulty of unwinding a poor database choice, enterprises will approach unknown quantities with caution.

“Database platforms eventually become sticky control points. Once the database is connected to the rest of the application, analytics, AI, and governance stack, switching becomes a business transformation rather than just an infrastructure swap,” said Michael Ni, principal analyst at Constellation Research.

In the case of a cloud database, there’s also the unwelcome possibility of “huge egress fees” in case of change, said Bradley Shimmin, lead of the data and analytics practice at The Futurum Group.

All that uncertainty is likely to lead enterprises to restrict HorizonDB to experimental use cases for now, Shimmin added.

Performance anxiety

Analysts also questioned whether HorizonDB’s technical differences will show up in performance benchmarks.

Microsoft has said HorizonDB can deliver up to three times the throughput of open-source PostgreSQL, but makes no comparisons with rival offerings such as Aurora or AlloyDB that it will compete with, Walter said.

The bigger question, according to Igor Ikonnikov, advisory fellow at Info-Tech Research Group, is whether those performance advantages, still largely on paper, translate into a meaningful difference in production.

“A database with a better compute benchmark can still be more expensive once resilience and ecosystem costs are included,” Ikonnikov said.

The economics also point to another HorizonDB limitation, particularly for workloads that are not continuously running, said Advait Patel, senior site reliability engineer at Broadcom.

HorizonDB currently uses provisioned compute rather than a serverless, scale-to-zero model, meaning customers continue to incur compute charges while an instance is provisioned, even if its workload is intermittent or idle, Patel said.

There are developer considerations too.

HorizonDB’s PostgreSQL compatibility does not necessarily mean every existing PostgreSQL application will move cleanly as in its current form the database supports only an approved set of PostgreSQL extensions rather than arbitrary ones, Walter said.

Who should wait?

For enterprises already deeply invested in Microsoft’s Azure ecosystem, those limitations may not be enough to rule out waiting for HorizonDB, Patel said: The chance to integrate the database with AI services and the wider Microsoft stack may outweigh immediate availability, he added.

That calculus also reflects how enterprises typically make database decisions in the first place: not by comparing databases in isolation, but by weighing how well they fit into the broader technology stack, including the cloud platform they have standardized on, Ikonnikov said.

For Azure shops, the choice may therefore be less about moving an existing workload away from Aurora or AlloyDB and more about whether a new Azure workload should start on Azure Database for PostgreSQL today or wait for HorizonDB when it becomes available, he said.

That may be an open question for some enterprises, said Devin Pratt, research director at IDC. “Plenty of organizations are still mid-decision, not locked in,” he said.

Microsoft finally offers a timeframe

Microsoft still won’t say exactly when HorizonDB will launch, with Shireesh Thota, corporate vice president for Azure Databases at Microsoft, saying only, “General availability for Azure HorizonDB is currently targeted for the second half of 2026.”

That narrows it down to a period of a little over four months, including Microsoft’s FabCon and Ignite conferences — an eternity in AI.