Nearly 170 billion tons of ice melt off the Greenland Ice Sheet every year, but scientists don’t fully understand the process by which this melting occurs. Researchers in the past suggested that liquid water forms at the glacier’s surface, where warm air and sunlight melt the ice. This meltwater travels down through cracks in the glacier and along the bedrock beneath it and flows out to sea. 

However, some scientists view this model as too simple because it assumes water only flows downward and ignores how temperature affects water movement. They argue that an oversimplified melting model is unreliable for predicting how future ice sheets will behave.

One group of researchers tested this by investigating how water movement across Greenland is controlled by lakes beneath the ice sheet, called subglacial lakes. They monitored a newly discovered subglacial lake using high-resolution satellite images taken from 2012 to 2019 and 3D surface maps generated from the images. They focused on ice sheet changes from July 22 to August 1, 2014, during a suspected subglacial lake drainage event. A drainage event is like a water balloon that’s too full, bursting from excess pressure. 

They examined images of the Greenland ice sheet taken from Landsat-8, 3D surface maps from the Polar Geospatial Center, and data from ICESat and ICESat-2 taken in the summer of 2014. Based on these data, the researchers identified a 2-square-kilometer (0.8-square-mile) region of ice rising 10 to 15 meters (about 30 to 50 feet), forming a dome on the ice sheet’s surface. They suggested that this dome formed when a large, meltwater-fed lake developed on the bedrock beneath the ice sheet, pushing the ice upward. 

They also saw that on July 22, 2014, the dome began to collapse. Over the next 10 days, it dropped by 85 meters (about 280 feet), forming a basin. Using the dome’s dimensions, the researchers estimated that 90 million cubic meters, or about 3 billion cubic feet, of water drained from the lake at an average rate of 100 cubic meters, or about 3500 cubic feet, per second over the 10 days. This is roughly equivalent to 36,000 Olympic swimming pools draining at a rate of 1 pool every 25 seconds! 

The researchers also found that during the collapse, 40-meter-high (130-foot) ice blocks were uprooted about 1 kilometer (0.6 mile) downstream from the basin, followed by 6 square kilometers (about 2 square miles) of smooth ice. The researchers hypothesized that these features formed when water burst through the ice, flowed along its surface, and then reentered the ice sheet.

Next, they used data from Landsat 5, Landsat 9, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey to demonstrate that the drainage event also affected the surrounding environment. When the water reentered the ice sheet, it flowed beneath the Harding Glacier downstream. This influx of fast-moving water reduced pressure at the glacier’s base, slowing its movement. Simultaneously, the increased drainage beneath the Harding Glacier caused 500 to 600 meters (about 1,600 to 2,000 feet) of ice to break off its end. 

In response to these changes, the researchers hypothesized that subglacial waters rose to the surface rather than sinking to the bedrock because the ice sheet was frozen to it. To test this, they simulated temperatures at the base of the ice sheet using computer-generated thermal models. They input a range of likely bedrock temperatures and ice thicknesses to simulate possible conditions under the ice sheet. They found that all the simulations predicted the glacier’s base would remain below -5°C (23°F). At such low temperatures, the ice would be frozen to the bedrock before subglacial water could drain out. Since water couldn’t flow under the glacier, it was forced to travel upward. 

The researchers used these findings to develop a new conceptual model of how glacial meltwater moves. First, surface ice melts and flows into a subglacial lake. As meltwater accumulates, pressure builds at the base of the ice sheet, forming a dome on the surface. A drainage event causes the dome to collapse. As water moves downward through the glacier, it is blocked from reaching the base because the ice is frozen to the bedrock. The water then moves upward, bursts through the surface, travels across it, and eventually reenters the glacier before draining to the ocean.

The team concluded that water movement above, through, and below glaciers is interconnected. Destructive upward flow of meltwater, followed by downward flow beneath glaciers, can weaken ice sheet structure and alter downstream glacier dynamics. Their work highlights the need for more scientists to consider the processes driving glacial ice loss.

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Many volcano scientists spend their time monitoring volcanoes to predict if, or when, they’ll next erupt. The challenge for these scientists is to forecast the exact probability of an eruption and the moment it will occur. 

To address this problem, a team of researchers developed an early-detection system to determine when to issue alerts about volcanic eruptions. Their motivation was that previous alert systems weren’t accurate enough because they couldn’t detect underground volcanic processes that occur right before an eruption. 

From 2014 to 2023, the researchers conducted a series of tests to accurately detect temporary, low-frequency vibrations using an instrument called a seismometer. The researchers focused on these transient signals because they come from earthquakes and other ground phenomena, which scientists often rely on to predict volcanic eruptions. These phenomena include ground tilting caused by fracturing from the movement of magma and volcanic gases. The scientists named these signals the “Jerk” signals because they occur due to sudden movements. 

The team set up their experiment at Piton de la Fournaise, a volcano at La Réunion Island off the east coast of Madagascar. They discovered the Jerk signals by detecting and analyzing mysterious short-term signals from existing and experimental seismic data. During real-time experiments, they detected signals 8 kilometers (about 5 miles) from the volcano at the Rivière de l’Est seismic station. These signals resulted from changes in ground elevation as magma moved, and they preceded eruptions by minutes and sometimes hours. 

The researchers measured the Jerk signals in units of newton-meters per second, which conveys how fast physical changes occurred in or around the volcano. In addition to real-time experiments, the team checked the Jerk signals’ accuracy by analyzing the station’s past data to determine when these signals would have occurred before an eruption.

To avoid false alarms during their experiments, the researchers needed to distinguish between the signal amplitudes of ocean tides and the transient Jerk signals. So, they used computational software to predict the signals from ocean tides. This was necessary because the instruments that record ground phenomena are also sensitive to tidal movements.  

The Jerk system sent its first automatic alarm in June 2014, 1 hour before the first volcanic tremor, signalling that magma was at the Earth’s surface. The team recorded the last signal in their study on July 2, 2023, 40 minutes before the eruption, at a slow 1.5 newton-meters per second. From 2014 to 2023, other Jerk detections occurred between a few minutes and up to 8 hours before an eruption.

To further assess the strength of the Jerk signals, the team examined previous eruption records at Piton de la Fournaise. They found that for the 24 eruptions between 1998 and 2010, a Jerk alarm would have gone off 83% of the time. Of the 48 eruptions that occurred between 1998 and 2023, including the eruptions during their real-time tests, about 42 Jerk alarms would have occurred. However, they found that the Jerk signals were more accurate during their real-time analysis than they would have been for the eruptions 20 years earlier. 

Although the researchers successfully detected pre-eruption signals, they noted that the Jerk alarms occasionally arrived too late due to the data processing time, which takes at least 10 to 15 minutes. They reported 2 late alarms: one on June 11, 2019, and the other on February 10, 2020. Therefore, after 10 years of tracking the Jerk signals, the team evaluated their success rates at 22 successful alarms out of 24 eruptions, for a 92% positive rate. 

Before using the Jerk signals, many volcanologists struggled to predict the exact moment a volcano erupts. The team concluded that, in addition to the usual methods for detecting pre-eruption earthquakes, observatory scientists could now use Jerk signals to confidently notify authorities in advance of volcanic eruptions, so they can alert people living near volcanoes worldwide. 

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