Development in space is gaining serious momentum. Impressively, NASA recently unveiled plans for a new moon base — the first concrete step toward permanently moving human civilization off Earth. However, as we […]
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A new study favors buried explosions over Hollywood-style head-on impacts.
For many years, scientists have been tracking even the tiniest fragments of space debris orbiting our planet to keep tabs on whether these small leftovers from decades of spaceflight might become a problem, whether for astronauts or for populations here on Earth.
Now, in new research, scientists say they have uncovered dozens of previously undetected fragments of space debris orbiting high above Earth, revealing a hidden population of tiny objects that some liken to a “potential minefield” in space that could pose a growing hazard to some of the world’s most important satellites.
The findings, published in the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, were carried out by an international team led by researchers at the University of Warwick, who found 25 faint objects in geosynchronous orbit—roughly 36,000 kilometers (22,400 miles) above Earth’s equator.
Close to 80 percent of these newly detected objects had been absent from catalogs available to the public that track such debris, meaning that there could be even more unrecognized leftovers from past space missions circling the Earth than experts realize.
Home to a steadily growing number of satellites that we rely on daily for activities here on Earth, geosynchronous orbit is where satellites that govern communication systems, television broadcasting, weather forecasting, and environmental monitoring all reside.
Objects at this altitude remain synchronized with our planet’s rotation, which means that they inhabit what is considered some of the most valuable real estate in space around the Earth.
“Pieces of space junk can be moving very quickly relative to one another, as much as several kilometers every second,” says Dr. James Blake of the University of Warwick’s Centre for Space Domain Awareness, who served as the new study’s lead author. “The energies involved are really high, and even small debris can cause a lot of damage to very expensive satellites, so small things really matter.”
Blake and his colleagues didn’t have to collect new observations to make these discoveries: they were able to discover evidence of undocumented orbital debris simply by looking at archival images obtained by the 2.54-meter Isaac Newton Telescope in the Canary Islands.
Offering a new perspective on these archival photos, the team employed a new image processing technique known as “blind stacking,” along with advanced image-processing algorithms, to detect fragments in orbit as small as five centimeters. The detections were significant, as they are now counted among the faintest examples of debris ever observed in geosynchronous orbit.
Naturally, a question arises: how many more examples of tiny debris might be lurking up there?
Additional analysis of the brightness of these objects revealed another concerning reality: based on variances in the light they reflect, it was evident that many of these objects are tumbling as they make their way through space.
The team’s findings offer a wakeup call in terms of just how much undetected debris may be drifting—or even tumbling—through geosynchronous orbit. However, there is also a positive side to the situation: the team’s discoveries also showcase our growing ability to make such detections if we know how to look for such minuscule objects.
Still, the findings underscore the challenges presented by monitoring orbital debris in a space above the Earth where such materials could potentially linger for centuries, since atmospheric drag in this region of orbit is essentially nonexistent.
“The debris in the neighborhood of the geostationary belt is a potential minefield,” said co-author Dr. Stuart Eves of SJE Space Ltd. “No one in their right mind would enter a terrestrial minefield without a mine detector. Similarly, no one in their right mind should launch a satellite to GEO without an adequate debris survey.”
With the project’s reach beyond Europe to include collaboration with researchers in Australia and Japan, the team says that international cooperation will be necessary to track potentially dangerous orbital debris—especially as more and more satellites are being placed in orbit above the Earth.
Increasingly sensitive surveys will be essential for understanding and mitigating the risks posed by even the smallest fragments of space junk, the team says.
“There are a finite number of orbital slots in the GEO belt,” Blake adds, “so it’s important that we know how much debris is out there, how it behaves, what risks are posed to the active satellites we rely on. Surveys for faint debris help us build a clearer picture.”
The team’s findings were detailed in a new study, “DebrisWatch II: Digging Deeper for Geosynchronous Debris,” which appeared in The Journal of the Astronautical Sciences.
Micah Hanks is the Editor-in-Chief and Co-Founder of The Debrief. A longtime reporter on science, defense, and technology with a focus on space and astronomy, he can be reached at micah@thedebrief.org. Follow him on X @MicahHanks, and at micahhanks.com.
When you think of an asteroid impact, you’re probably imagining something like the cataclysmic event that nearly wiped out the dinosaurs. In an astonishingly rare event, a rock the size of the island of Manhattan could come hurtling from deep space towards Earth and destroy the world.
On the contrary, asteroids are generally leftover debris from the primordial solar system that didn’t become part of a larger body, like a planet or moon, and they’re not particularly rare. Scientists estimate that there are about 1 billion asteroids and comets classified as near-Earth objects, or NEOs. NEOs are generally much smaller than the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. They range from weakly held-together piles of rubble 200 meters (700 feet) across, to the minuscule 2024 BX1, approximately 44 centimeters (17 inches) across.
For several decades, astronomical surveys of the sky have looked for these asteroids. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball and Bolide Database has records of over 1,000 incidents of objects colliding with our planet since the mid-1990s. Among these is a set of 11 objects that scientists detected before they hit Earth, known as imminent impactors. Finding imminent impactors allows scientists unique opportunities to study the smallest building blocks of the solar system, enabling them to learn more about asteroid composition, structure, and history.
A team of scientists recently conducted a study on how the newly built Vera Rubin Observatory could detect more imminent impactors before they strike Earth. They examined the CNEOS Fireball and Bolide Database impact records spanning February 1, 1994, to January 1, 2026, for records of the asteroids’ coordinates, velocities, and the energy they released at the time of collision.
They found that 343 NEOs met this criterion, including 5 known imminent impactors. Using these recorded data, they reconstructed the objects’ pre-impact characteristics. The team predicted the asteroids’ orbital paths from the recorded coordinates and velocity. Assuming the objects were spherical, they estimated the size from velocity and impact energy. From this information about the asteroids’ state before impact, the team could then simulate whether the Rubin Observatory would have detected them.
When small asteroids hit Earth, they mostly burn up in the atmosphere, producing a bright flash that is relatively easy to spot compared to when they are in space. The Rubin Observatory can see objects up to 10 billion times dimmer than the brightest star in the night sky, Sirius. To predict if the Rubin Observatory can detect dim NEOs, the team used the solar system simulator SORCHA. SORCHA takes an observatory’s specifications and the physical properties of the NEOs and uses these to determine whether the observatory could detect them. It also estimates the measured sizes and speeds of the NEOs, and predicts when the observatory would have seen them.
At the Rubin Observatory, an imminent impactor is considered discovered if it’s observed at least 3 separate times over 15 days before hitting Earth. So this team applied this same criterion to their simulation. They found that of their 343 impactors, SORCHA estimated that the Rubin Observatory would have discovered 14 of them before impact.
They also found that SORCHA predicted 4 additional impactors that could have been observed at least once, potentially allowing scientists to search other telescope data for evidence of their existence in pre-collision images. Based on these results, the team estimated that the Rubin Observatory could find 4% of all objects longer than 1 meter (3 feet) before they hit Earth. This percentage of discovery translates to 1 to 2 imminent impactors detected every year, at least double their current discovery rate.
The ability to more consistently find imminent impactors would allow researchers to study the smallest pieces of the solar system in detail and to draw general conclusions about the properties of objects that could potentially collide with Earth. This would also allow scientists to more accurately calculate the orbits of imminent impactors, determine where more meteorites land to recover them, and keep tabs on the extremely rare but more hazardous large impactors for planetary defense initiatives. So, humanity can learn more about the ancient solar system, and hopefully avoid going the way of the dinosaurs while doing so!
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