The US government decision to force Anthropic to close down its latest and greatest AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, was only the next step in a burgeoning battle between AI providers and ignorant politicians. 

Anthropic was on top of the world. Its Mythos 5 LLM had everyone excited. (If you believe the hype, it was kind of scary, too.) Even Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei admitted — or boasted? — that Mythos would bring an “enormous increase in the amount of vulnerabilities, in the amount of breaches” to us all. But with that fear came the promise of more AI power than ever. 

Then, the roof caved in.

On June 12, the US Commerce Department used its export-control powers to demand that Anthropic cut off access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all foreign nationals, citing national security concerns and fears of jailbreaks. After figuring out it had no way to do that, Anthropic pulled both of its newest frontier AI models offline worldwide.

Just what an AI company needs! All other Claude models, like the Opus and Sonnet series, remain online. But, come on, AI sales are all about the newest and most powerful models.  

Adding insult to injury — and this is true at many high-tech companies — Anthropic has many employees who aren’t US citizens. This means Anthropic’s own programmers can’t work on their latest models.

Of course, this isn’t the first time US President Donald J. Trump and company have tried to put a spoke in Anthropic’s wheels. Back in February, Anthropic refused to give Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth the power to use its models to spy on American citizens and to power autonomous weapons.

This go-around, it wasn’t because Anthropic refused to kowtow to Trump’s officials. It was, they say, out of fear that these new models could be used to attack American interests. 

Mind you, no one in Trump’s regime has the tech chops to know just how dangerous, or not, any AI model is. As I recently noted, Trump’s AI executive order has no teeth. Nor, more to the point, is there anyone in the administration with a clue about AI.

Specifically, at the Department of Commerce, neither Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick nor William Kimmitt, undersecretary of commerce for international trade, knows a thing about AI. Just what we need, more political hacks deciding tech policy. 

So, how did they discover that Fable and Mythos were theoretically a danger to the US? Good question. According to The Wall Street Journal, it was Amazon CEO Andy Jassy who told the Trump administration that Fable was untrustworthy. Guess what? AWS offers its own full cloud AI stack, starting with Amazon Bedrock for foundation models, Amazon SageMaker for training and deployment, and a growing set of agentic AI tools and services. 

In other words, Amazon is not a neutral party; it’s a competitor. Funny, that.

Sure, Amazon also has partnerships with Anthropic. But, in case you haven’t noticed, all the big AI companies are in bed with each other. That doesn’t stop them from fighting. What’s heating this up is that the AI companies are no longer offering flat-rate subscriptions and are replacing them with far more expensive, token-based pricing schemes. 

Armed with this information, Commerce gave Anthropic 90 minutes to fix its “problem.” Right. AI development is fast, but it’s not that fast. In addition, according to Anthropic, officials haven’t spelled out exactly what’s wrong. They only know that Commerce claims there was a “narrow, non‑universal jailbreak” in Fable.   

That’s it. That’s all. 

Anthropic has also observed, with reason, that similar jailbreaks are possible on other leading models, like OpenAI’s GPT‑5.5. Those others, however, haven’t been hammered with comparable export controls.

The AI and security experts who do have an AI clue believe Commerce is behaving stupidly. (You won’t get any argument there from me.) For example, in an open letter, “On Transparent AI Cyber Protections,” they said Commerce’s directive “has taken the best models away from defenders, created market uncertainty, and risked America’s AI leadership without any real risk to justify it,” warning that pulling capabilities “away from defenders without a good reason when our adversaries are rapidly advancing is dangerous.”

Exactly so. 

Besides, as Alex Zenla, co-founder and CTO of security company Edera, observed, Fable’s capability to identify insecure code sections is the baseline for any model you’d trust to write secure code. The same capability exists in GPT-5.5, Opus, Sonnet, and Kimi 2.7 — it’s not unique to Fable. Pulling Fable from defenders doesn’t remove the capability from the threat landscape. It just removes it from the people trying to build safer systems.”

This is not about AI safety or security. 

What this is really about is opening a new front in Trump’s war against the liberal-leaning Anthropic. Mind you, Anthropic isn’t really liberal. This has more to do with Anthropic not following in other tech firms’ groveling to Trump. 

However, Trump doesn’t seem to realize that by essentially shutting down Anthropic’s biggest move to date, he’s also telling the world that they can’t rely on American AI companies down the road. Sure, in the short run, this hurts Anthropic. In the long run, it’s going to be another reason for Europe and other countries — taking digital sovereignty seriously — to avoid doing business with any American tech company. 

In the meantime, Anthropic and Trump administration officials are in tense talks over whether, and under what safeguards, the models could return to the marketplace. Commerce indicates it might allow a narrower relaunch if jailbreak issues are resolved and additional controls are in place — whatever those might be. 

Since it’s really all about massaging Trump’s ego, I’m not feeling terribly optimistic. Just ask Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu how well letting Trump set the terms of engagement goes. It’s not pretty. 

For the past few years, the most visible corner of the AI market has been easy to caricature: OpenAI gets the consumer attention, Anthropic gets the developer love, Google gets the benefit of the doubt with increasingly capable models and a complementary product suite, and everyone else gets to explain why they’re not dead yet.

That’s unfair, of course, but not completely wrong. In AI, attention compounds and it’s leading to outsized revenue, with both OpenAI and Anthropic reportedly rushing toward trillion-dollar-sized IPOs on the backs of billions in revenue.

So it’s easy to underrate Mistral AI.

Honestly, I hadn’t thought of the Paris-based company for a year. Maybe longer. But then Brian Hall announced he’s joining Mistral as CMO, and I had an Arrested Development “Her?” moment. Hall, a longtime Microsoft exec, hired me at AWS and went on to run product marketing at Google Cloud. His move prompted curiosity because Mistral doesn’t dominate developer chatter in the United States or boast the same seemingly endless compute budgets as Anthropic or OpenAI. If the AI market is simply a race to build the biggest, most magical, most general-purpose model, Mistral isn’t the company to bet on.

But that’s the wrong question, and likely the wrong bet.

The more interesting question is when the enterprise AI market will revert to type and demand that AI deliver the same security, predictability, and control we’re used to from other IT investments. Here Mistral has a real story. As Hall notes, Mistral’s approach is to “prioritize AI for mission-critical environments that need the confidence and self-control to bet for the long term (with open weights and real sovereign capabilities).”

While this might have sounded like an overly hopeful talking point, it became real in June when the US government ordered Anthropic to suspend access for foreign nationals to its most advanced Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models. Anthropic said it would disable the models for all users because of the export-control directive. “Can this vendor be forced to turn us off?” is no longer a theoretical question.

That’s why Mistral’s quiet focus on enterprise control just might work.

The wrong race

The enterprise control story is much more compelling than the narrative I used to hear. You know, the “Europe needs its own OpenAI” schtick. There is a market for “patriotic AI,” but it’s relatively small. The far bigger market is comprised of enterprises that just want AI that works, costs less (or delivers more) than expected, and can be customized while fitting their compliance requirements.

Though the company’s initial launch page went out of its way to mention that the company was operating out of Europe and headquartered in Paris, since at least October 2023 Mistral’s product posture has centered on enterprise control. Scattered throughout its current (and past) website are words like “customize,” “fine-tune,” “open source,” and “complete control.” Mistral pitches Studio for building and running AI apps, Forge for custom model training and alignment, Vibe for agentic work, Vibe for Code for coding workflows, and Compute for training and inference infrastructure. The company talks about observability, evals, guardrails, deployment portability, and running production AI “from edge to cloud.”

In other words, it sounds less like a chatbot company and more like an infrastructure company.

That positioning becomes clearer when you look underneath the product names. Mistral AI Studio includes an AI Registry that acts as a system of record for agents, models, data sets, judges, tools, and workflows. It tracks lineage, ownership, and versioning. It enforces access controls and promotion gates before deployment. That’s boring governance plumbing (and “boring” is good in enterprise IT, as I’ve written).

Forge may be even more important. Mistral describes it as a way for enterprises to train frontier-grade models on proprietary enterprise data. Rather than training on others’ copyrighted information strewn across the web or on a mountain of Reddit posts, Forge goes well beyond retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to not simply “read in” proprietary docs/info/etc., but rather to give an enterprise its own private OpenAI, as it were. 

That’s super interesting.

But is it different? I mean, OpenAI and Anthropic can do plenty of this, with greater scale and the benefit of leading frontier models. Both have enterprise products, cloud partnerships, evals, agents, governance tools, and varying forms of model customization. Mistral’s bet with Forge isn’t that the big labs can’t customize models. It’s that some enterprises aren’t interested in customization as a side feature bolted onto a frontier API. It is the product. OpenAI and Anthropic can build everything around Forge but not Forge itself, because the one thing they almost certainly aren’t interested in selling is independence from them.

This is where Mistral may have found a useful seam, one that allows it to ask a different set of questions. What if the best enterprise model isn’t the smartest general-purpose model? What if the best model is the one that’s small enough to run where the customer needs it, open enough to inspect and adapt, cheap enough to use broadly, and specialized enough to do the job? What if “good enough, governable, and your own” beats “slightly smarter, mostly opaque, and rented”?

This won’t matter for every use case, of course. If I’m asking AI to reason through a spreadsheet or write code, I probably want the best model I can get. But for banks, defense agencies, manufacturers, utilities, telcos, and governments, “best” is multidimensional and includes questions like latency, auditability, etc. It’s why banks, for example, still run so many workloads on premises: They want control.

What about compute?

None of this makes compute irrelevant. But it may change how compute matters.

If Mistral is trying to be a French version of OpenAI, its lack of hyperscale compute is a fatal weakness. It won’t outspend OpenAI, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, SpaceX, or Anthropic. It probably won’t out-recruit them across every frontier research area, either. The AI market is already littered with companies that underestimated how quickly “good model” became “not good enough.”

But if Mistral is trying to become the enterprise-controlled AI layer for organizations that don’t want all intelligence to live behind someone else’s API, compute becomes a more nuanced issue. It still needs infrastructure, and Mistral seems to know it. After all, Mistral raised $830 million in debt to buy 13,800 Nvidia chips for a data center near Paris. That’s a rounding error compared to OpenAI and Anthropic, of course, but the real question is whether Mistral can turn relative compute scarcity into a virtue, like Amazon’s Leadership Principle “Frugality” on steroids. If lower compute capacity leads Mistral to deliver smaller, more efficient, and more specialized models, which in turn helps enterprises maintain more control of their data at lower cost, then less really does become more.

Mistral’s compute challenge, then, is not to try and have as much compute as OpenAI. It’s to make customers care less about raw compute scale and more about deployment flexibility, specialization, and control.

That’s a hard sell. But it’s not a dumb one.

What Mistral must prove

The bear case remains obvious. OpenAI has consumer distribution, developer mindshare, capital, and a brand that has basically become synonymous with AI. Anthropic has become the developer darling and has an unusually strong enterprise story of its own. Google has the models, the infrastructure, the data, and a bevy of complementary services. AWS, Microsoft, and Oracle have customer relationships and infrastructure.

Mistral has to prove that there’s room for another center of gravity. More specifically, it must prove three things.

First, it has to show that open-weight and controllable AI matter enough to influence buying decisions, not just conference panels. Everyone says they want control, just as most like the idea of open source. But proprietary software and cloud services still dominate the market. Mistral must make control feel like the easy button.

Second, it must prove that specialization beats generality in enough high-value markets. “Our model is almost as good” is not a strategy. “Our model is better for your bank, your government agency, or your retailer” just might be.

Third, it needs to establish a beachhead within enterprise IT before OpenAI and Anthropic become “boring” enough to satisfy the same buyers. This is the real race. The biggest AI companies are hiring enterprise sales teams, building admin controls, and cutting deals with every major cloud. Mistral’s window exists because the market is still young, but that window won’t stay open much longer.

If AI remains a model benchmark race, Mistral likely loses. But if AI keeps evolving to become grown-up enterprise infrastructure, Mistral has a real chance.