Astrobotic showed off the lunar lander it plans to launch later this year that will be the vanguard of NASA’s new lunar base ambitions.
The post Astrobotic unveils Griffin-1 lunar lander appeared first on SpaceNews.
© Brad J. Vest for The New York Times
As OpenAI files SEC paperwork ahead of an expected initial public stock offering, newly leaked financial documents show a company with quickly growing revenues that are currently being overwhelmed by even larger expenses.
The audited financial statements, obtained by independent journalist Ed Zitron, show OpenAI's reported revenue growing from $3.7 billion in 2024 to $13.07 billion in 2025. The Financial Times, which reviewed the same documents, writes that the company's monthly revenues had grown to nearly $2 billion by the end of 2025, suggesting that its ongoing revenue rates continued to grow throughout the year.
R&D expenses alone still easily outpace OpenAI's quickly growing revenues.
Credit:
Ars Technica
But the company's fast-growing revenues are still dwarfed by its even more significant expenses. OpenAI's total revenues in both of the last two years were outpaced by research and development alone, which grew from a $7.81 billion line item in 2024 to a massive $19.18 billion cost in 2025. Those numbers seem to reflect the significant costs OpenAI incurred in training new models and include $10.59 billion in R&D costs paid to Microsoft alone in 2025.
© Getty Images
In a groundbreaking study published in Communications Earth & Environment, researchers Michael Dickau, Kirsten Zickfeld, and Henry D. Matthews unveil a sobering new framework for understanding the permanence of climate change. Their work introduces the concept of “degree-years of temperature overshoot” as a critical metric that quantifies how temporary excursions beyond safe temperature thresholds can lead to irreversible environmental transformations. This innovative approach adds a crucial dimension to climate science, emphasizing not just peak temperature increases but the duration and cumulative intensity of warming above critical limits.
Traditional climate models have largely focused on absolute temperature increases as the key indicator of climate risk, emphasizing targets such as the 1.5°C or 2°C limits set by the Paris Agreement. However, the new research underscores that even transient overshoots—periods during which global mean surface temperature temporarily exceeds these thresholds—have the potential to trigger lasting and perhaps unstoppable changes in Earth’s systems. The authors coin the term “degree-years” to capture both the magnitude and the persistence of such overshoots, integrating these factors into a unified metric that reflects cumulative thermal stress on the planet.
This degree-years concept operates by calculating the product of how many degrees the global temperature exceeds a set threshold and the length of time this exceedance lasts. For instance, a half-degree overshoot lasting two years would equate to one degree-year; similarly, a one-degree overshoot lasting one year also amounts to one degree-year. Crucially, the study demonstrates that certain climate impacts can become irreversible once the cumulative degree-years surpass specific tipping points, regardless of whether global temperature subsequently declines.
Using an ensemble of Earth system models, the research team investigates multiple climate feedback mechanisms and tipping elements, such as the melting of polar ice sheets, disruption of ocean circulation patterns, and shifts in tropical rainforests. Their simulations reveal that the risk of crossing dangerous thresholds escalates significantly with increasing degree-years of overshoot. For example, temporary overshoot scenarios that peak above 2°C but rapidly return below this limit still lead to substantial and irreversible sea level rise due to sustained polar ice melt dynamics set in motion during the overshoot period.
One of the key insights emerging from this work challenges the assumption that episodes of elevated temperature can be fully “undone” by later cooling. The degree-years metric quantifies the residual “memory” of warming embedded in earth system components, which continue to evolve even after global temperatures stabilize. The long timescales involved in ice sheet dynamics and biosphere feedbacks mean that rapid temperature corrections may not reverse damage already set in progress during the overshoot phase. Hence, avoiding overshoot altogether, or limiting both its magnitude and duration, becomes paramount to mitigating irreversible harm.
The study’s implications are profound for policy and climate mitigation strategies. Current targets geared towards limiting peak warming are important but may be insufficient if the duration of overshoot is not carefully managed. This necessitates a reconsideration of emissions trajectories, emphasizing pathways that avoid substantial periods above critical temperature thresholds. It also highlights the urgency of carbon dioxide removal and other negative emissions technologies as tools to swiftly bring temperatures down post-overshoot, should such scenarios unfold.
Further complicating the global puzzle, the authors note that regional climate impacts tied to degree-years of overshoot may be even more severe and less reversible. Areas dependent on stable ice coverage, predictable monsoon patterns, or intact rainforest ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the cumulative stress captured by the degree-years framework. These localized consequences exacerbate socioeconomic and ecological vulnerabilities, raising challenging questions about adaptation and resilience under future climate regimes.
The robustness of the degree-years concept is fortified by the multi-model approach, harnessing the strengths of different Earth system models to explore uncertainties and variability in tipping thresholds. Although individual models exhibit different sensitivities, the overarching finding that overshoot duration compounds irreversible impacts holds consistently across simulations. This consensus underscores the importance of integrating degree-years into future climate risk assessments and international negotiations.
Another notable aspect of this research is its capacity to reconcile temporal aspects of climate response with policy-relevant decision-making. Climate policies often operate on decadal or shorter timescales, yet many earth system processes unfold over centuries to millennia. Degree-years offers a bridge, linking short-term temperature excursions to long-term, irreversible environmental change, thereby sharpening the scientific basis for precautionary action.
In terms of public communication, the concept of degree-years could serve as a powerful narrative tool. It translates complex climate dynamics into an intuitive measure that captures cumulative exposure to harmful warming. This allows scientists, policymakers, and the public to grasp why even brief exceedances of temperature targets cannot be dismissed as temporary or harmless, engendering a sense of urgency and shared responsibility to prevent such scenarios.
Moreover, the study opens exciting avenues for further research. Quantifying degree-year thresholds specific to different types of tipping points—such as permafrost thaw, coral reef die-offs, or monsoon shifts—can refine risk predictions and tailor mitigation efforts. Understanding interactions between multiple tipping elements under varying degree-year exposures may reveal potential cascade effects, heightening the stakes of temperature overshoot.
From a geoengineering perspective, the findings also raise caution. Proposed interventions aimed at artificially reducing global temperatures after an overshoot event must be evaluated in the context of irreversible processes already triggered. If irreversible changes are initiated early in the overshoot phase, cooling alone may not restore pre-overshoot conditions, limiting the efficacy of such strategies.
Importantly, this study enhances our conceptual toolkit for addressing the climate crisis. Instead of focusing solely on static temperature targets, it shifts the lens to dynamic exposure metrics that capture the integrative nature of climate impacts. This could inspire novel frameworks for carbon budgeting, climate risk governance, and adaptation planning that better reflect the temporal dimension of warming.
As the world grapples with the twin challenges of rapid decarbonization and social transformation, the message is clear: the pathways we choose today will dictate not just the future peak temperatures but whether we cross invisible but consequential temporal boundaries that lock in irreversible change. The degree-years of temperature overshoot is a clarion call to steer humanity away from transient excesses and towards a sustainable, stable climate future.
In sum, Dickau, Zickfeld, and Matthews have presented a visionary and urgently needed perspective on climate change risks. Their pioneering work demystifies the irreversibility of certain climate impacts by framing it within the cumulative thermal stress of overshoot duration and intensity. This holistic approach complements existing metrics and offers a powerful new paradigm for safeguarding the planet’s habitability in an era of uncertainty.
Subject of Research: Irreversible climate changes linked to cumulative temperature overshoot measured as degree-years.
Article Title: Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot.
Article References:
Dickau, M., Zickfeld, K. & Matthews, H.D. Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03761-z
Image Credits: AI Generated
The startup uses probabilistic reasoning to diagnose spacecraft anomalies
The post PiLogic partners with Air Force lab to test satellite fault-prediction software appeared first on SpaceNews.
In a groundbreaking study poised to reshape our understanding of Earth’s deep interior dynamics, researchers have unveiled a comprehensive model elucidating the genesis of the extensive large igneous provinces (LIPs) in the Pacific Ocean during the Early Cretaceous period. These massive volcanic events, which left a profound imprint on the planet’s geological record, had long been attributed to various causes including isolated mantle plumes, tectonic slab return flows, or complex plume–ridge interactions. This latest research integrates geophysical modeling with paleogeographic data to reveal a multifaceted interplay between mantle convection processes, subducting tectonic plates, and migrating mid-ocean ridges that collectively controlled the timing, location, and intensity of LIP formation.
The Pacific Ocean’s Early Cretaceous LIPs, encompassing some of the largest volcanic eruptions in Earth’s recent history, had puzzled researchers due to their sporadic yet intense episodes of basaltic outpourings. Historically, hypotheses have swung between attributing these vast eruptions to the arrival of deep superplumes—a concept suggesting stable, buoyant columns of hot mantle material rising from the core-mantle boundary—to mechanisms involving return flows of cold slabs being subducted beneath the Pacific basin. Adding complexity, the interaction between these mantle upwellings with tectonic spreading ridges has also been proposed as a trigger for massive melt generation. Yet, until now, a unified mechanistic explanation that could integrate these disparate phenomena remained elusive.
The pivotal insight of the new study comes from advanced mantle flow simulations constrained by precise paleogeographic reconstructions of Early Cretaceous plate configurations. By projecting plate motions and subduction geometries back in time, the researchers were able to create dynamic models of mantle convection patterns beneath the Pacific basin. These simulations revealed a stable pattern of thermally buoyant mantle upwellings, or plumes, persisting between approximately 165 million and 80 million years ago. Intriguingly, these upwellings were not isolated features but were rooted above enduring lower mantle thermal anomalies, suggesting the importance of inherited mantle structure in shaping convective behavior.
A particularly striking finding emerged around 130 to 125 million years ago, when the intensity of mantle upwelling reached its zenith. This peak activity appears fundamentally linked to an increase in slab flux beneath the Pacific realm, where enhanced subduction rates delivered cold tectonic plates deeply into the mantle, inducing a return flow that effectively strengthened the buoyant upwellings. This coupling indicates that rather than being independent processes, subduction dynamics and preexisting mantle heterogeneities synergistically elevate mantle temperatures and buoyancy, fostering conditions ripe for extensive melting and volcanic activity.
The study highlights the critical role of mantle-ridge interaction in modulating LIP genesis. Around 145 to 120 million years ago, migrating spreading ridges—regions where tectonic plates diverge, allowing mantle material to rise and solidify as new crust—passed over these vigorous upwellings. The models suggest that when spreading ridges intersected with zones of intense heat advection from the underlying mantle plumes, the accompanying thermal anomaly slowed ridge propagation. This transient deceleration enhanced the efficiency of mantle melting, channeling voluminous magma to Earth’s surface and triggering the prolific LIP eruptions witnessed in the geological record.
However, subsequent to this period of intense volcanic activity, the simulations indicate a pronounced decline in LIP eruption frequency and magnitude. This downturn corresponds to a combination of factors: a weakening of mantle upwelling intensity as slab flux diminishes, and the accelerated migration of spreading ridges away from the central Pacific mantle plumes. Such dynamic decoupling reduces the capacity for significant mantle melting beneath the ridges, thereby suppressing the generation of large-scale igneous provinces.
The revelations of this study carry profound implications for our grasp of Earth’s mantle convection and its surface expressions. The joint control of radial heat advection by slab flux and inherited lower-mantle structures innovatively bridges the gap between mantle plume theory and plate tectonic processes. It underscores the necessity of considering the deep Earth’s thermal architecture not as static but as an evolving, inherited template that interacts intricately with episodic tectonic phenomena to produce massive surface volcanism.
Moreover, the research offers a nuanced perspective on the temporal and spatial variability of LIP occurrences. The inferred stability of the central Pacific mantle upwellings over tens of millions of years challenges the traditional view that mantle plumes are transient or short-lived. Instead, the presence of deep-rooted thermal anomalies suggests longevity that serves as a backdrop for dynamic tectonic events, providing fertile mantle heat reservoirs that can be tapped repeatedly under favorable conditions.
The evidence for spreading ridges acting as crucial melting amplifiers rather than mere passive features reshapes existing paradigms around mid-ocean ridge evolution. The transient slowing of ridge migration due to underlying thermal anomalies offers a novel mechanism explaining how mantle melting can be efficiently modulated over geological timescales. This insight emphasizes the interconnectedness of deep mantle processes and plate boundary dynamics, illuminating a feedback system where surface plate motions influence, and are influenced by, mantle convection.
Such a feedback mechanism further accounts for the spatial clustering and episodic nature of LIP eruptions in the Pacific basin. As spreading ridges move relative to mantle plumes, the precise location and intensity of melting episodes shift, giving rise to spatially focused volcanic provinces at certain intervals. This dynamic explains observed geological distributions that earlier models struggled to fully capture, providing a cohesive narrative linking mantle physics, tectonic processes, and surface volcanism.
In addition to unraveling long-standing geological puzzles, this study also enhances predictive frameworks that may be vital for understanding the Earth’s future geodynamic behavior. The coupling between slab dynamics, mantle structure, and ridge migration suggests that monitoring contemporary subduction zones and spreading ridges could illuminate potential sites of enhanced mantle melting, which could, in extreme cases, relate to future volcanic hazards or crustal growth episodes.
The sophisticated modeling approaches employed further demonstrate the power of integrating multi-disciplinary datasets in geosciences. The confluence of plate reconstructions, mantle convection simulations, and thermal structure analyses exemplifies a holistic methodology transcending traditional disciplinary boundaries. This approach not only advances fundamental scientific knowledge but also opens avenues for exploration into Earth’s deep processes that underpin surface phenomena critical to the planet’s evolution.
While the findings present a compelling mechanism for Early Cretaceous LIP activity in the Pacific, the study also raises exciting questions about the potential for analogous mantle-plume and ridge interactions in other oceanic basins and geological epochs. Could similar dynamics explain volcanic provinces elsewhere, or are these processes unique to the Pacific’s mantle and tectonic configuration during that period? Future research targeted at extending these models globally and temporally promises to deepen our understanding of Earth’s geodynamic engine.
In conclusion, the fusion of mantle convection modeling with tectonic and paleogeographic data in this research provides a transformative lens on one of Earth’s most dramatic volcanic phenomena. The identification of vigorous mantle convection driven by tiered slab flux and legacy mantle structures, alongside nuanced ridge-upwelling interactions, charts a paradigm shift in interpreting large igneous province formation. These revelations not only solve longstanding enigmas of the Cretaceous Pacific LIPs but also refine the broader framework within which mantle dynamics and surface tectonics coalesce to sculpt our planet’s geological evolution.
As our planet continues to evolve, studies like this reaffirm the deep interconnectivity of processes spanning from Earth’s core to its crust, reminding us of the subtly intertwined forces shaping the planet on scales across both space and time. Through sophisticated simulations and integrative science, the tantalizing mysteries of Earth’s volcanic past inch closer to clarity, offering unprecedented glimpses into the fiery heart of our dynamic planet.
Subject of Research: Mantle convection dynamics and formation of large igneous provinces during the Early Cretaceous period in the Pacific Ocean.
Article Title: Vigorous mantle convection triggered the Cretaceous Pacific large igneous provinces.
Article References:
Deng, D., Li, S., Cao, X. et al. Vigorous mantle convection triggered the Cretaceous Pacific large igneous provinces. Nat. Geosci. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02016-y
Image Credits: AI Generated
Pro-migrant campaigners boasted that they had influenced a BBC children’s television show as part of an attempt to change attitudes to asylum seekers.
The post BBC Children’s Show “Influenced by Pro-Migrant Campaigners” appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
As the rest of the country celebrated the USA's first World Cup win and the New York Knicks championship, Anthropic spent its weekend fighting the Trump administration over its latest model release. At 5:21 PM on Friday, the company received a US export control directive to suspend access to its Mythos 5 and Fable 5 AI models by "any foreign national" inside or outside the US, "including foreign national Anthropic employees." The only way that was possible, Anthropic determined, was to completely disable products it spent the past week hyping - and travel to Washington, DC in hopes of changing President Donald Trump's mind. Now, over the com …
Login