Discovered in December 2024, the roughly 60-meter-wide asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially thought to have a slim chance of striking Earth in 2032. Further observations ruled out an Earth impact but left open the possibility of a Moon impact. New JWST observations show that 2024 YR4 will speed past both Earth and the Moon without a collision.

Another Update on 2024 YR4

In April 2025, we featured a Research Note that described March 2025 JWST observations of 2024 YR4 and characterized the asteroid’s size and albedo. At the close of that article, the authors suggested that further JWST observations in early 2026 could help to refine our understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory and determine whether it would strike the Moon.

On 18 and 26 February 2026, JWST carried out those critical observations. In this dataset, the asteroid is bright enough to be detected confidently, and the background is peppered with a sufficient number of reference stars — two factors necessary to determine the precise track of the asteroid as it zipped through space.

Trajectory Refinement

Julien de Wit (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and collaborators analyzed the new JWST data and determined the asteroid’s position. The team used multiple methods to reduce the data and showed that their results were consistent regardless of the reduction method, ultimately yielding a measurement with an uncertainty of just 50 milliarcseconds. This is a huge improvement over the previous trajectory estimate, which had an uncertainty of 700 milliarcseconds.

Combining the latest JWST observations with existing data stretching back to the asteroid’s discovery, de Wit and coauthors determined a new, highly precise orbit for the object — one that definitively shows that the asteroid will safely pass by the Moon at a distance of 22,900 ± 800 km in 2032. In addition to ruling out the upcoming lunar impact, the team also ruled out any collisions with Earth in the next 100 years. Phew!

High-Impact Science

This work highlights JWST’s potential as a tool for planetary defense. The February 2026 observations detailed here represent the faintest-ever detection of a near-Earth object, and JWST can detect objects far fainter than ground-based telescopes can. This ability allows JWST to observe potentially hazardous asteroids over a larger swath of their orbits, which translates to earlier trajectory estimation — JWST pinned down 2024 YR4’s orbit two years before the asteroid would have become bright enough for ground-based telescopes to do so.

JWST’s role may be even more important for smaller objects that rapidly become undetectable after discovery. De Wit’s team demonstrated this for a 10-meter-diameter 2024 YR4 clone on the same trajectory; for an object of this size, JWST would be able to rule out an Earth impact before the asteroid became undetectable, but ground-based telescopes could not. With surveys from facilities like Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Near-Earth Object Surveyor set to discover hundreds of thousands of new near-Earth objects, JWST’s role as a hazard assessor will likely be in high demand.

Citation

“JWST Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Rule Out a 2032 Lunar Impact and Demonstrate a New Regime for Planetary Defense Follow-Up,” Julien de Wit et al 2026 ApJL 1003 L21. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae6a95

The post Asteroid 2024 YR4 Won’t Hit the Moon, New JWST Observations Show appeared first on AAS Nova.

The outer solar system is inhabited by swarms of small objects that are challenging to observe and characterize. When one of these objects travels in front of a star, from our perspective, the passage provides a brief chance to study these distant, icy denizens of our solar system. In a recent article, Estela Fernández-Valenzuela (University of Central Florida) and coauthors described how they predicted and observed stellar crossings by Weywot, the largest moon of the dwarf planet Quaoar, which lies roughly 44 au from the Sun. In the image above, the black dashed lines indicate the areas where Weywot was predicted to briefly blot out the light from a star, and the blue lines show the updated regions based on Hubble Space Telescope observations. In each panel, the green squares and red circles show where the occultation was and was not detected, respectively. There were five successful detections of Weywot’s passage across a star, allowing the team to constrain Weywot’s diameter to 116–172 km. The team also found that Weywot is much darker than the body it orbits, which has important implications for how the system formed. To learn more about the planning process for and results of these observations, be sure to check out the full research article linked below.

Citation

“Weywot, an Unusually Low-Albedo Satellite in the Trans-Neptunian Region,” Estela Fernández-Valenzuela et al 2026 ApJL 1002 L37. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae6076

The post Featured Image: Chasing Weywot’s Shadow appeared first on AAS Nova.