The memory crisis is getting worse for Apple, which is struggling to get enough memory chips together for its upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series smartphones. That’s according to tech journalist Tim Culpan.

As he details it, Apple and its assembly partners are still attempting to secure sufficient quantities of memory, and though they’re confident they can meet initial demand once the devices are introduced, they apparently remain concerned that wait times could rapidly extend as retail inventory evaporates.

Apple’s manufacturing process compounds the problem. The A20 processor is packaged with memory using a new TSMC process, meaning processors are reportedly piling up while manufacturers wait for memory chips. You should read Culpan’s report to get the full picture.

What’s the frequency?

You don’t need to read between the lines to see the challenge. Despite demand for TSMC’s new processors, Apple seems to have been able to secure the supply it needs. But when it comes to churning out the final packaged chips memory, supply constraints have created significant obstacles to producing in quantity.

This is bad for Apple, particularly as the challenge doesn’t appear to be confined to iPhones; customers are experiencing delays getting new Macs. “Many new orders are now not arriving until September,” Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman wrote earlier this week. 

It isn’t just Apple that will be impacted by the AI-driven memory drought. The scale of Apple’s orders is among the greatest in the industry, and if its product plans are feeling the pain, every other manufacturer will be feeling it as well.

Conscious uncoupling

This is certainly in tune with expectations voiced at the beginning of the year when Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, warned: “This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.”

Gartner in February predicted a 10.4% decline in global PC shipments and an 8.4% drop in smartphone shipments as a result. The analyst also predicted a 130% surge in combined memory and SSD storage prices by the end of this year, with steep product price increases to follow. Recent data from IDC, Gartner, Counterpoint, and Omdia confirm PC market declines, but only at around 4% (the estimates vary).

Today’s report from Culpan suggests we’ve not yet experienced the full extent of this decline — hinting that while the initial fall reflected price, the next impact will be defined by lack of supply. While this hurts big brands like Apple, smaller entities could be left high and dry. 

When the chips are down

It is interesting to reprise Atwal’s warning in February that, “the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” as this seems to be what’s happening. That’s something long-time Mac users like me find particularly ironic, given it was only this year Apple briefly offered up its superbly priced $499 MacBook Neo. The industry direction we’re seeing now suggests we’ll never see that again, though the success of that device gave Apple a phenomenal 28.7% increase in sales in its just-revealed June quarter.

Despite memory supply challenges, Apple seems to be faring fairly well, with market share increasing across its business. Counterpoint data reveals that Apple has achieved an astonishing 65% share of the premium smartphone market. In part, that’s because as an existing premium brand, Apple was able to better absorb rising memory costs through higher margins and reduced promotions. Realistically, this means we can expect an overall increase in iPhone prices when the new range is announced up to $300 more, Jeff Pu, of GF Securities, recently claimed. 

Building the moat

Once again, what’s sustainable but difficult for larger brands such as Apple is existential disaster for smaller players — and it’s only now a matter of time before we see some real blood. That’s particularly true in smart home and device markets, where manufacturers lack the margins to sustain higher memory prices while delivering products customers can afford. A recent Global Electronics Association report tells us 62% of electronics manufacturers are already experiencing constrained availability or extended lead times. It also tells us 82% expect rising prices, including 33% who cite a “significant increase.”

This is already being felt by consumer and business users, as networking equipment is experiencing significant shipping delays. So, while we may find ourselves waiting a month or more for an iPhone, the wait for new routers, external storage devices, and home automation systems could be even longer once available inventories disappear. 

This doesn’t appear to be a short-term challenge; a recent Digitimes report warns that vendors have already sold their entire allocation of memory capacity for 2027.

Don’t even get me started on the likely impact on the military and defense markets as high-performance memory, storage, and processor supplies become constrained. Just like declining river levels in Europe, lack of memory threatens severe disruption. With so much turbulence impacting the tech economy, all we need now is for one or more of theinvestor-supported AI companies that have helped create the memory shortages to default on loan payments.

Got to keep the customer satisfied

Eager to protect sales, Apple recently introduced the Apple Upgrade leasing service in the US. This should enable consumers to purchase new devices at prices more sustainable to them over time. Apple isn’t alone in taking such action, which will inevitably extend beyond America.

“OEMs are expanding financing, trade-in and buyback programs to improve affordability,” said Counterpoint’s Harshit Rastogi. “Samsung has also expanded its Galaxy Forever program to several markets to make flagship devices more accessible.” 

Such schemes are all well and good, of course. Consumers will embrace them in hopes of a better tomorrow. But the tech industry is not immune to the wider constellation of existential challenges impacting economic environments.

In the end, if Apple, the industry’s biggest buyer of advanced components, is struggling to secure memory, the rest of the electronics sector is likely to face even greater challenges. For consumers, the initial impacts will be longer waits and higher prices. But the longer term consequences could be slower innovation and increased consolidation across the industry.

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Nvidia and Microsoft this month touted the reinvention of computers with a new class of “agentic AI PCs” that will “reinvent the way PCs work.” 

That’s how Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the computers at the recent Computex trade show. At the event, Nvidia introduced its first AI-focused PC chip called N1X, which has an integrated CPU and GPU and will be used in agentic AI PCs.

Nvidia’s new RTX Spark PCs are the first in a major “PC reinvention for 40 years,” Huang said, likening them to AI phones. “You could talk to it, it could look at you. You could ask it to read files… [or] go help you do research.”

Not so fast, say analysts, who argue the computers are mostly repackaged AI PCs that shouldn’t necessarily drive enterprise upgrades.

“Agentic AI PCs is a strange term that should probably be deemphasized,” said Leonard Lee, principal analyst at neXt Curve. “Depending on use case, PCs of the last two generations are ‘agentic AI’-capable.”

Skeptical of the hype, analysts said many current PCs are already capable of running agents, such as those spun up on device by OpenClaw. Those agents don’t need to communicate with AI models in the cloud.

In fact, Lee said, Apple has already shown that Windows isn’t needed to run agentic workloads, with the Mac Mini among the most talked-about device for hosting personal AI agents and OpenClaw.

Analysts said the definition of agentic AI PCs really comes down to the hardware inside, which largely defines their capabilities. Most are really just an evolution of earlier AI PCs, which arrived a few years ago amid similar hype.

AI PCs, specifically CoPilot+ PCs, were originally designed with neural processing units (NPUs) to support the requirements of Windows Recall. “Some argue agentic AI PCs need more GPU compute, but…Qualcomm and Microsoft would counter that agentic AI PCs have been around for a while,” Lee said.

To highlight the capabilities of the RTX Spark PC, a demonstration at Computex showed how an architectural design workflow could be split between the PC and the cloud. (An MCP server managed data exchange to facilitate the cloud-PC workflow.)

Adobe has reengineered Photoshop and Premiere for RTX Spark PCs, allowing the software to communicate with AI agents on PCs and tools to run twice as fast, Huang said.

And at the company’s recent Build conference, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella demonstrated the new Surface Laptop Ultra AI PC based on the RTX Spark design. He positioned agentic AI PCs as running a new execution layer that can act across files and devices, including generating and executing code. 

While AI PCs with agents will be capable, they still lack applications, said Jim McGregor, principal analyst at Tirias Research. “However, PCs — especially the small form factor PCs and workstations — are likely to be the home AI appliance,” he said.

For enterprises, upgrading to RTX Spark PCs at this point could pose problems. That’s because Nvidia’s N1X CPU is based on the Arm processor architecture and could run into compatibility issues with x86 applications designed for Intel and AMD chips.

“Despite Arm processors being available for a while, enterprise penetration stays small, since compatibility with all apps, drivers, and corporate systems is critical and requires extensive testing…, even though Microsoft has done a reasonably good job with Windows 11 on Arm,” said Jack Gold, principal analyst at J. Gold Associates.

Because Microsoft is moving to natively incorporate AI into Windows, those PCs will land in enterprises ultimately, Gold said.

Regardless of hype, it might be a good time for enterprises chasing an agentic AI agenda to upgrade laggard Windows 10 devices, Lee said. “Considering the considerable hype about agentic AI, early adopters will need to upgrade their fleets if they pursue a broad agentic AI agenda for their organizations,” he said.

Apple execs are now acknowledging the company is going to need to raises prices to cope with higher component costs, particularly memory. Apple has been battling to avoid doing so, but warned this week that those efforts are “unsustainable.”

The price pressure is being felt across the tech industry. Omdia predicts the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones globally will increase by around 20% this year — partly because AI industry demands have pushed up RAM prices and partly because of rapid cost increases in processor production as a direct consequence of war in the Middle East. This impacts anything that uses memory or processors.

Apple must raise prices, CEO warns

“We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable,” current Apple CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal.

OK, so prices are going to go up. But how?

If Apple must raise prices, the way it does so matters. Will it increase prices across the board, or choose a subtle, strategic approach that protects margins while also maintaining rapidly accelerating market share growth?

Until now, Apple has been benefiting from the rising tide in memory prices. While competitors have been steadily increasing prices across the board, Apple introduced its first $599 laptop even as it eats into mid-range smartphone sales. 

To grow, or to grow less?

The PC industry is not growing (outside of Cupertino), and Apple and its investors already know that the inordinately high customer satisfaction ratings its platforms enjoy mean that when people switch to them they tend to stick around. That’s why it matters that Cook highlighted record switchers and first-time platform users during the company’s most recent fiscal call. Apple is growing new customers, people who are likely to sign-up for services, accessories, and future upgrades. Winning the customer is an investment in future performance.

When it comes to increasing prices, we’ve seen some gentle experimentation in the Mac mini line, where the entry-level $599 model was effectively replaced by a more expensive $799 SKU. There have been suggestions Apple could do the same with the $599 MacBook Neo, dumping the entry-level build in favor of the (better) $699 model. I’m not certain that’s the best approach. 

A matter of choice

I’d argue that the $599 price point is psychologically the best bit of marketing Apple has ever done as it draws new users to look at its platforms. I also think substantial numbers of people already shift up to the $699 version, if they can, making that entry-level price an incredibly effective marketing tool with which to woo customers. It looks like that approach is working; the MacBook Neo has led the Amazon Laptop Sales chart ever since it was introduced and is selling in huge quantities globally.

Francisco Jeronimo, IDC vice president for data and analytics, sees this, writing: “It will be interesting to see whether Apple raises prices across its entire portfolio or plays strategically by subsidizing its more affordable products to gain market share and grow its installed base.”

If Apple raises prices at the price sensitive, entry-level end of its market, it runs the risk of slowing its own resurgence. Given that a 10% price hike here is only worth around $60, the revenue generated might not justify blunting Apple’s offer to new users.

Pricing and strategy

But Apple isn’t defined by its entry-level markets. Its biggest earning opportunities continue to be generated by the aspirational middle class, who, while feeling the pinch of declining living standards in many markets, can still handle the price of a top-of-the-range iPhone Pro. A 10% price increase at that end of the market will generate a much more significant chunk of revenue – and since rival vendors are raising their prices at this end of the market, Apple can follow suit while still seeming affordable. It’s an approach that maintains growth while optimizing margins.

Apple generates roughly half its revenue from iPhone sales, with the Pro and Pro Max devices accounting for a significant chunk of that money. Consumers looking to buy one of Apple’s high-end devices are likely to be less price-sensitive than those making purchases at the low- and mid-points of the company’s market range. 

With that in mind, it makes more sense for the company to raise prices at the top, while working to maintain the cost of entry at the lower end. It could, of course, raise prices universally, but doing so makes less sense.

What next?

Whatever strategy Apple adopts, company leadership is clear that component pricing is hitting hard. “We definitely need memory pricing and supply to return to reasonable levels for consumer products. That’s the bottom line,” Cook said.

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Intel is invading the physical AI space with a reentry into the robotics market it quit many years ago amid financial struggles.

The robotics strategy is part of the company’s larger plan to establish AI on the “edge,” in which devices have the computing capability to run AI locally. Many devices lack AI capabilities and have to offload processing to the cloud.

The chipmaker said its Intel Series 3 processors are now in 130 edge AI and robotics designs. It also had a design win with SensoryAI, which provides technology for robots that include Ella, a robotic barista made by Crown Digital.

The company’s Core Ultra Series 3 processors are derivatives of chip designs intended for laptops. But Intel has achieved a level of power efficiency for long battery life that allows those chips to be adapted for handheld devices and laptops.

Intel also said it can build advanced robotics chips thanks to its latest manufacturing technologies.

For example, many robotic functions, such as computer vision and real-time controls, can be integrated into a single chip. Previously, functions like graphics and movement and control were distributed among different cores in a chip.

SensoryAI, for example, has a chip architecture that provides the robotic barista — which is more like a robotic arm — with AI capabilities, Intel said.

The main “Avatar” agent handles customers as the main “Ella” agent reasons and executes the task. If Ella encounters errors, it passes on the issue to a Guardian agent, which helps with the recovery. Some issues could include making sense of an order, or cups that might be stuck. 

The three agents are embedded in a single piece of Core Ultra Series 3 silicon.

Intel is displaying some of those robots at the Computex trade show in Taiwan. The company shared a video of a humanoid-style robot from the floor in a X.com post  

This is not Intel’s first attempt at the robotics market. Intel sold robotics chips and kits when it was a dominant chip player in the field, but curtailed efforts in 2021 after Pat Gelsinger took over as CEO and restructured the company to focus on manufacturing.

Robotics is now back on the menu under new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who replaced Gelsinger last year. He has restructured to company to focus on high-growth areas that can generate high returns.

A Morgan Stanley study last year indicated the robotics market could be worth $5 trillion by 2050 — and more than 1 billion humanoid robots could be in operation. 

Robots are seen to improve human productivity and manufacturing output. For example, they could help factories that are facing labor shortages or be used to complete tasks that are dangerous. 

However, challenges remain. There isn’t yet enough real-world data to train robots to do targeted work. And the AI models — generally called world models — they will need are still under development. 

Training robots to do a specific job requires a sequence of events to happen in succession without any errors. Companies are still training robots to spot and understand errors, analyze possible resolutions, and take the right corrective action.