Apple is poised to make one of the most impressive debuts in recent smartphone history. According to Counterpoint Research’s latest forecast, the company’s first foldable iPhone is expected to capture a remarkable 25% share of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026 — its very first year (really, quarter) in the category — while helping propel the overall market to robust 21% year-over-year growth.

This is no ordinary product launch. In a segment long dominated by a handful of Android players, Apple is projected to debut in a clear second place, ahead of Huawei (24%) and closing the gap dramatically on market leader Samsung, whose share is forecast to decline from 40% in 2025 to 32%. Motorola and HONOR are expected to see further erosion of their positions, underscoring how Apple’s entry is poised to reshape the competitive landscape overnight.

Global Foldable Smartphone Shipment Share by OEM, 2025 vs 2026F

What makes this projection especially powerful is the nature of the demand Apple is expected to unlock. Counterpoint notes that Apple’s arrival will intensify competition specifically in the premium book-type foldable segment—the form factor that prioritizes productivity, multitasking, and expansive screen real estate over pure novelty. As AI features evolve beyond simple chat into everyday workflows such as document summarization, content editing, schedule management, and seamless cross-app information movement, a wider, more flexible canvas becomes essential. Apple’s anticipated design approach aligns perfectly with this shift, positioning the foldable iPhone as a natural extension of the company’s longstanding focus on refined user experience, seamless ecosystem integration, and premium craftsmanship.

Samsung is set to retain the overall lead for now, but the narrowing of its advantage to just seven percentage points over Apple highlights the disruptive force of Cupertino’s entry. Other brands that once held meaningful shares are projected to lose ground, illustrating how a single, highly anticipated Apple product can redefine market dynamics and accelerate category maturation.

The 21% growth forecast for the global foldable market in 2026 is itself a vote of confidence in the category’s future, and Counterpoint explicitly ties much of that expansion to Apple’s influence. By bringing its massive, loyal customer base, rigorous attention to durability and software optimization, and unmatched brand prestige into the foldable arena, Apple is expected to expand the total addressable market rather than merely redistribute existing demand. Premium book-style devices stand to benefit most, moving foldables further from experimental gadgets toward mainstream productivity tools.

For years, observers have waited for Apple’s carefully timed move into foldables. The Counterpoint numbers suggest that timing was deliberate and strategic. Rather than rushing to market, Apple appears positioned to enter with a product that not only claims a quarter of all foldable shipments in its first quarter, but also elevates the entire segment—raising expectations for design excellence, software polish, and real-world utility.

In short, 2026 is shaping up as the year the foldable smartphone market comes of age, and Apple is set to be one of its primary architects. Capturing 25% share on debut is more than a strong start; it is a clear signal that when Apple decides a category is ready, the industry—and consumers — take notice.
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MacDailyNews Take: And, in 2027, if they don’t actually exceed Counterpoint’s projection and claim the crown straight off in Q226, after a mere three months on the market, Apple’s iPhone will be No.1 in foldable smartphones. Apple’s well-heeled customer base guarantees it.

As with fingerprint and facial recognition, when Apple debuts a foldable iPhone, then foldable smartphones will have been done right. – MacDailyNews, January 17, 2019

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The global smartphone market faced significant headwinds in the second quarter of 2026, with shipments slumping to the lowest Q2 level in 13 years due to a deepening memory chip crisis. According to Counterpoint Research, overall shipments declined sharply year-over-year. Yet Apple stood out as a bright spot, bucking the trend with resilient demand for its premium iPhone lineup.

Apple’s Strong Performance in a Challenging Market

Apple’s iPhone shipments grew by approximately 3% year-over-year in Q2 2026, even as the broader market contracted by around 11%. This growth propelled Apple to a record 20% global market share for the quarter. Key factors included:

• Sustained consumer demand for the iPhone 17 series and other premium models.

• Apple’s strategy of keeping prices stable despite rising component costs, unlike many competitors who faced pressure from the memory shortage.

• Strong performance in key regions, supported by promotions and trade-in programs.

This marks a notable achievement for Apple, highlighting the enduring appeal of its ecosystem and product quality in an environment where many Android vendors struggled with higher bill-of-materials costs and softer demand.

Top 5 Smartphone Brands Global Sell-in Shipment Share (Preliminary Data)

Broader Market Context: The Memory Crisis Takes Its Toll

The memory chip shortage has ripple effects across the industry, leading vendors to adjust shipment plans and pass on higher costs. Global shipments hit multi-year lows for a Q2 period, reflecting cautious buying from both consumers and supply chains. While some brands saw sequential improvements through promotions (e.g., during China’s 618 festival), year-over-year declines dominated for most players.

Apple’s ability to maintain pricing power and grow shipments underscores its premium positioning, which has helped it capture higher revenue shares even in softer quarters.

What This Means for the Industry and Consumers

• For Apple: Hitting a record 20% share reinforces its leadership in the premium segment. With innovations like advanced AI features and consistent ecosystem updates, the company continues to attract loyal users and convert new ones, particularly in emerging markets.

• For Competitors: Brands reliant on mid-range and budget devices face tougher conditions. The memory crunch may lead to further consolidation or shifts toward value-oriented strategies.

• For Consumers: Expect continued pressure on prices in the short term, but Apple’s stable pricing offers a relative value proposition. Trade-ins and promotions could become even more important for upgrades.

MacDailyNews Take: As the memory crisis persists into late 2026 and potentially beyond, analysts will watch how Apple sustains its momentum—especially with the upcoming iPhone 18 cycle on the horizon. The company’s focus on software optimization, services growth, and selective hardware advancements positions it well to navigate challenges.

This Q2 result isn’t just a bright spot in a down market, it’s a testament to Apple’s strategic resilience. In an industry grappling with supply constraints, premium differentiation continues to pay off!

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Global shipments of Edge AI-capable smartwatches experienced robust growth in the first quarter of 2026, with Apple maintaining overwhelming dominance in the emerging category of on-device AI wearables. According to Counterpoint Research, the Apple Watch accounted for the vast majority of these AI-enabled shipments, highlighting the company’s lead in integrating advanced intelligence directly into its devices.

Edge AI Reaches 25% Market Penetration with Strong Growth

Counterpoint Research reported that global Edge AI-capable smartwatch shipments grew by 70% year-over-year in Q1 2026, achieving a market penetration of 25%. One in every four smartwatches shipped during the quarter now features Edge AI capabilities, enabling local machine learning inference for improved speed, privacy, and efficiency.

Apple solely accounted for ~90% of Edge AI smartwatch shipments in Q1 2026. This dominance stems from its custom Neural Engine technology, which powers seamless on-device features such as Siri intent recognition, high-frequency sleep apnea monitoring, and advanced gesture detection without cloud dependency.

Health Monitoring Features Accelerate

The adoption of Edge AI aligns with rapid growth in advanced health capabilities. Shipments of smartwatches with blood pressure monitoring doubled, while those with sleep apnea detection tripled between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. Key penetration shifts include:

• Blood pressure monitoring: rose from 11% to 23% of shipments
• Sleep apnea detection: increased from 5% to 18%
• ECG: grew from 31% to 34%

These developments reflect a broader industry move toward clinically relevant, real-time health insights powered by on-device AI.

Apple’s Overall Market Performance

Apple’s shipments grew 21% year-over-year, securing a 23% share of the total global smartwatch market. Counterpoint Principal Analyst Anshika Jain said in a statement: “Apple captured the highest shipment share and was the strongest performer in the quarter, helped by its refreshed lineup, meaningful health upgrades and the more affordable Apple Watch SE 3.”

Counterpoint’s Research Director Mohit Agrawal commented on the transition in Edge AI, “Edge AI in smartwatches is shifting from primarily a hardware integration to one that also includes software optimization. The real unlock is smaller, more efficient models and OS-level access that lets any app run inference locally. AI needs to turn from a single application into a personal layer that works on personal data. This enables instant health alerts, gesture control, and richer personalized experiences, and that is why Edge AI penetration is set to approach 32% in 2026.”

MacDailyNews Take: Counterpoint expects Edge AI penetration in smartwatches to near 32% by the end of 2026. As the category evolves from basic tracking to intelligent, personalized health and interaction tools, Apple’s integration of hardware, software, and privacy-focused AI continues to give it a substantial edge in the competitive wearable market.

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