It’s a bit worrying when a scientific paper begins, “How long will life on Earth survive?” But in this case—a study by Jacob Haqq‐Misra of Blue Marble Space and Eric Wolf at the University of Colorado Boulder—the billion-plus-year timeline under consideration shouldn’t cause you too much existential panic.

The context for this question is that we understand the Sun will brighten as it eventually matures into a red giant that swallows the Earth in a solar furnace. So, where along that 5 billion-year path will life on Earth, in fact, be cooked?

Weathering and the weather

This isn’t just a question of incoming radiation. Among the thermostat-like stabilizing feedback loops in Earth’s climate, the cycling of CO₂ through the solid Earth is a major factor over timescales this long. The weathering of silicate rocks at the surface converts atmospheric CO₂ into carbonate that ends up on the seafloor, where it can be subducted into the mantle with tectonic plates. (And eventually, it can cycle back out to the atmosphere through volcanoes.)

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Humanity has littered the sky with the refuse of fossil fuel use, releasing enough CO₂ to change the planet’s climate. We are also chucking incredible sums of carbon in the form of plastics into landfills and into the environment around (and inside of) us. What if cleaning up one of these problems could also help clean up the other?

A new study led by Ruth Ebenbauer at Aarhus University experiments with this idea by upcycling discarded polystyrene into (part of) a material commonly used in carbon-capture systems.

Adding amines

This material is based on amines—a simple chemical group that conveniently acts like a sponge for CO₂. An amine will grab CO₂ molecules when exposed to them, but let go of the CO₂ when heated or depressurized, leaving it ready to go again. The first “CO₂ scrubbers” tried in smokestacks used amines dissolved in water to do this, but solid amines are used in all kinds of carbon-capture systems now because they require less energy. These solid materials—often made into granules similar to the activated carbon in a water filter—have high surface area and high porosity, so the amines can efficiently partner up with CO₂ molecules.

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It feels like there's no escaping AI right now, whether you’re trying to type a sentence without being interrupted by a digital “assistant” or struggling to find a new refrigerator that doesn’t require a Wi-Fi connection for some reason. You’d be forgiven for wondering if we’re in the midst of a quantum leap in tech or whether people are just hyping up a heap of slop.

So what should we make of the growing use of AI in weather and climate modeling?

The conversation didn't get off to a great start earlier this year when a National Weather Service office posted a forecast map featuring nonexistent cities in Idaho with names like “Whata Bod” and “Orangeotild.” Thankfully, that was just an AI-generated image produced for social media, not the actual forecast model. Meteorologists and climate scientists are not yet being replaced by large language model prompt engineers.

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Planet Earth has some pretty great qualities going for it. (Negative reviews mostly revolve around the staff and clientele.) Pretty high on the list of positives is a richly oxygenated atmosphere. But that’s something that evolved and built up over a couple billion years, only eventually resulting in a world conducive to animal life like us.

Scientists have many ideas about what could have caused oxygen to increase, and it seems that a number of them are probably correct. No one thing in isolation seems to explain it. Life is part of the story, with photosynthetic life pumping out oxygen. The chemistry of the solid Earth also had a role to play, both through supporting photosynthetic life and through reactions that can shuttle oxygen between the atmosphere and rocks deep inside the Earth.

A new study led by Wei Shi of the Chengdu University of Technology suggests that evidence of changes in the subduction of tectonic plates—the process by which they disappear down into Earth’s interior—lines up with the timing of jumps in oxygen levels.

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