Leadership wants to scale AI. Budgets are tripling. Adoption is up.

Then the CFO asks the question every board now asks: which of these initiatives is actually profitable?

Most organizations cannot answer that question, not because they lack visibility into cost, but because the cost data they have was never designed to produce that answer.

Applying lessons learned from managing cloud spend won’t be a fix for the AI and ROI quandary. True, cloud taught a generation of CFOs that billing without business context is noise. So to get cloud ROI, they stitched two data sources together: cost data plus business data. AWS reveals which account, which region, which tag, which resource. Merge in customer and product mappings on top and the ROI of the cloud spend comes into focus.

But AI is harder. It requires three data sources: cost, business, and telemetry—the automatic collection of data from disparate sources that helps to clarify the whole picture of what happened and why. An executive or engineering lead can have AI invoices and customer revenue. But they have no way to connect them to business value. The token count on the OpenAI invoice does not specify which customer triggered which call, which feature it served, or whether the prompt produced a business outcome. That data does not exist in the provider’s billing.

AI providers won’t fix this problem

The situation is not likely to change anytime soon because AI providers are not in the business of attributing an enterprise’s costs to that enterprise’s customers. Instead, AI providers are in the business of selling tokens. The granularity they expose is the granularity their billing systems require, not the granularity a CFO requires.

Not convinced? Compare what AWS gives you to what an AI provider gives you.

AWS billing exposes resource IDs, account hierarchies, region, SKU, tag metadata, usage by the minute. Every dollar can be attributed to a workload, a team, a customer segment if it was tagged correctly. The data is rich enough that mature FinOps teams built unit economics on top of it years ago.

An AI provider invoice gives you tokens consumed by model, with optional grouping by API key. That is the resolution. No request-level attribution. No customer ID. No feature mapping. No prompt outcome. No retry identification. Multi-step agent workflows collapse into a token count. Imagine a large bank receives a multi-million dollar AI invoice each month. But it has no visibility into what parts of the business were responsible for what parts of the cost so cannot allocate them.

If an enterprise wants to know what AI cost drove which customer or feature, it has to capture that data itself, inside an application, before the call leaves it. 

Three required sources

Building AI ROI measurement requires three data sources, stitched together in a single model.

1. Cost data, normalized across providers. Every AI provider delivers cost differently. OpenAI invoices in one taxonomy, Anthropic in another, fine-tuning vendors and inference platforms each in their own. Cloud GPU costs sit in AWS or Azure billing. Vector database costs land in Pinecone or Snowflake invoices. None interoperate by default. Normalization is necessary but not sufficient. It will put all your AI costs in one schema. It does not tell you what they produced.
2. Application-layer telemetry. This is the source most organizations are missing, and the one that makes AI ROI structurally different from cloud ROI. It requires instrumenting AI calls inside your application across six categories: request-level tracing tied to a customer or session ID; feature attribution tied to the product surface that triggered the call; agent-step capture for multi-step workflows; retry and fallback identification so recovery costs don’t get attributed to primary calls; model selection logging that records which model was chosen and why; and outcome capture that ties each call to whether it produced business value. None of this data exists in the provider’s billing. All of it has to be captured at the moment the call is made and stored in a system that can be stitched to the cost data.
3. Business data. Revenue, customer segments, product hierarchies, and feature usage. The same business data already feeding your CRM and analytics stack, mapped to the customers and features the telemetry layer attributes calls to.

Stitched together, the three sources produce the unit economics every AI investment decision now requires: cost per customer interaction, margin per feature, profitability per agent workflow, ROI per model choice. None of these can be calculated from billing data alone. None can be calculated from telemetry alone. They require all three sources, modeled together in a way that maps cost to outcome.

Why agentic AI makes this urgent

Single-call inference is the easy case. One request, one cost, one customer, one outcome.

Agentic workflows are different. An agent decomposes a task into multiple steps. Each step calls a model. Some steps fall back to a different model when the first fails. Some steps retry on a poor result. Some steps invoke external tools that themselves cost money. A single user request can produce dozens of inference calls across multiple providers, with the cost compounding in ways the provider invoice cannot disaggregate.

If telemetry does not capture agent-step granularity, no one will know which steps are profitable. Aggregate costs will show up three weeks later in the invoice. By then, the workflow has been running at scale, customers are onboarded, and unprofitable paths have been retried thousands of times.

When agents make the calls, the volume of cost-generating events without business context attached grows by an order of magnitude. The window for instrumenting this before it becomes unmanageable is closing.

What changes when the three sources come together

Once the three sources are stitched together, the AI investment conversation changes.

Five different ways to build the same AI capability stop looking equivalent. They converge on adoption metrics and diverge by 10x on cost. The team picks the approach that delivers a similar business outcome at one-fifth the cost, because the team can finally see the difference. Product teams design features with margin awareness from the architecture phase, not from the post-launch budget review. Engineering teams choose model architectures with cost-per-outcome data alongside latency and quality. Leadership evaluates AI initiatives the way they evaluate any other capital allocation: on unit economics, not on the engagement chart. Aggregated invoices track the cost per customer interaction. Engagement metrics reveal margin per feature. Gut-instinct model selection is checked against real cost-per-outcome model selection results. 

Within seconds, everyone can see which AI features are profitable, which should scale, and which should be killed. This is the insight everyone is looking for and companies that achieve it will optimize the benefits of AI.

The build trap

AI costs are compounding now. The board is not waiting 18 months for an internal project to reach production.

The temptation to build it anyway has never been sharper. AI coding tools have changed what a small engineering team can ship in a quarter. The instrumentation layer looks tractable. The cost normalization looks like a weekend project. The semantic model feels like something a senior engineer could draft over a sprint.

It is a trap. Three reasons.

Volume is the first. A production AI footprint generates millions of telemetry events per hour, and that volume scales with agentic adoption. Real-time ingestion, correlation, and attribution at that scale is not the same problem as vibe coding a prototype in an afternoon. It is a permanent operational system that has to be right every minute of every day.

The vendor landscape is the second. Cost data arrives in delayed billing windows from providers with non-interoperable schemas. Schemas change without notice. New AI providers enter the landscape monthly, each with its own taxonomy and metering. The system is not built once. It is maintained against a moving target that moves faster than most internal release cycles.

The third is what the first two add up to: this is business-critical infrastructure. The CFO and the board are going to make capital allocation decisions on the data this system produces. When schema drift goes unnoticed for two weeks, when an agent telemetry stream stops correlating to a vendor that quietly changed its billing API, the cost of being wrong is not a sprint of cleanup. It is a quarter of misallocated capital.

The build-vs.-buy question for engineering leaders has changed. It’s not “can we build this?” The honest answer is yes. The real question is whether the marginal hour of your strongest engineers is best spent stitching cost data to telemetry to business outcomes, or building the AI products that produce the revenue the cost data is measuring.

The capability is reproducible in weeks. The choice is whether to spend the next 18 months building it, or the next 18 months acting on it.

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New Tech Forum provides a venue for technology leaders—including vendors and other outside contributors—to explore and discuss emerging enterprise technology in unprecedented depth and breadth. The selection is subjective, based on our pick of the technologies we believe to be important and of greatest interest to InfoWorld readers. InfoWorld does not accept marketing collateral for publication and reserves the right to edit all contributed content. Send all inquiries to doug_dineley@foundryco.com.

A year ago, most enterprise AI systems generated recommendations. Today, AI systems are approving transactions, routing shipments, updating records, interacting with customers, and triggering downstream software actions with little or no human involvement.

For CIOs, that shift changes the central governance question. The challenge is no longer simply whether an AI model is accurate. It is whether the organization can explain, audit, and defend the decisions the system makes.

When an AI assistant suggests a meeting time or summarizes a document, mistakes are inconvenient. When an autonomous AI system issues a refund, reprices a product, modifies a customer record, or initiates a financial transaction, mistakes carry operational, legal, and reputational consequences.

When those consequences arrive, “the model decided” is not an acceptable explanation.

This is the accountability gap emerging at the center of enterprise AI adoption. Organizations are deploying increasingly autonomous systems while relying on technology that often provides little visibility into how decisions are made. The result is a growing mismatch between the level of authority organizations grant AI and their ability to understand or justify its actions.

Black-box AI may have been acceptable when AI primarily generated predictions. It becomes far more problematic when AI begins taking actions on behalf of the business.

The lesson software already learned

Fortunately, the technology industry has faced a similar challenge before.

As enterprise software systems became more distributed and complex, troubleshooting failures became increasingly difficult. Engineers could no longer rely on intuition to understand what happened when something broke. The solution was observability: the practice of instrumenting systems so their internal state could be understood through logs, metrics, traces, and monitoring.

The goal was not to predict every possible failure in advance. It was to create enough visibility that teams could reconstruct what happened after the fact and identify the root cause.

Enterprise AI now requires a similar discipline.

But AI observability must go beyond traditional software observability. It is not enough to know what action occurred. Organizations also need visibility into why the system believed that action was appropriate.

An auditable AI system should be able to answer questions such as:

• What information did the system rely on?
• Which tools or data sources did it access?
• What alternatives did it consider?
• What verification steps were performed?
• How confident was it in its conclusion?
• What events led to the final action?

These questions are rapidly becoming essential operational requirements rather than technical nice-to-haves.

Why visibility matters more as AI gains autonomy

As AI systems become more autonomous, failures become harder to detect and diagnose.

A human reviewing a single AI-generated recommendation can often spot obvious mistakes. A network of AI agents coordinating multiple tasks across business processes presents a different challenge. Decisions can build upon one another. A flawed assumption early in a workflow can propagate through subsequent actions, creating confident but incorrect outcomes.

The challenge is rarely identifying that something went wrong. Eventually, an error surfaces through a customer complaint, a failed transaction, an audit finding, or an operational disruption.

The challenge is determining why it happened.

Which information influenced the decision? Which tools were consulted? Which safeguards worked as intended? Which ones failed?

Without visibility into the reasoning process, troubleshooting autonomous AI workflows can become significantly more difficult than debugging traditional software systems.

For CIOs responsible for enterprise reliability, compliance, and governance, that lack of visibility creates unacceptable operational risk.

Moving toward glass-box AI

The answer is not to slow AI adoption. The answer is to make AI systems observable.

Increasingly, organizations are seeking AI systems that behave more like a glass box than a black box. The objective is not to expose every parameter inside a neural network. Rather, it is to provide a clear, auditable record of how decisions were reached and why actions were taken.

The most promising approaches share two common characteristics.

The first is verification. Instead of treating a single model’s output as ground truth, systems incorporate independent validation steps before actions are executed. Multiple agents, external checks, business rules, or verification workflows help identify errors before they become operational incidents.

The second is explainability. Effective systems maintain a decision trail that captures inputs, intermediate reasoning steps, tool usage, verification activities, and outputs in a form that human reviewers can understand.

Together, these capabilities create something that has long been expected of human decision-makers but is often missing from AI systems: the ability to show your work.

The regulatory and business reality

The push toward AI observability is not being driven solely by technologists.

Regulators increasingly expect organizations to demonstrate oversight of automated decision-making systems. Emerging AI governance frameworks place growing emphasis on transparency, traceability, accountability, and human oversight.

Customers are moving in the same direction. Whether the decision involves pricing, service, eligibility, or support, people increasingly want the ability to understand and challenge outcomes that affect them.

The result is a convergence of operational, regulatory, and market pressures around a single requirement: organizations must be able to explain what their AI systems are doing.

Three questions every CIO should ask

Before deploying autonomous AI systems, technology leaders should be able to answer three basic questions:

1. Can we reconstruct the complete decision path that led to an action?
2. Can we verify critical outputs before actions are executed?
3. Can a human auditor understand why the decision occurred?

If the answer to any of those questions is no, the organization may be granting more authority to AI than it can responsibly govern.

Accountability will become a competitive advantage

The organizations that succeed with autonomous AI will not necessarily be those that automate the most processes or deploy the largest models. They will be the organizations that combine automation with accountability.

Black-box systems made sense when AI primarily generated predictions. As AI increasingly acts on behalf of businesses, customers, and employees, visibility becomes essential.

The future of enterprise AI will belong not to systems that merely act, but to systems whose actions can be examined, understood, and trusted.

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New Tech Forum provides a venue for technology leaders—including vendors and other outside contributors—to explore and discuss emerging enterprise technology in unprecedented depth and breadth. The selection is subjective, based on our pick of the technologies we believe to be important and of greatest interest to InfoWorld readers. InfoWorld does not accept marketing collateral for publication and reserves the right to edit all contributed content. Send all inquiries to doug_dineley@foundryco.com.