China is expanding its nuclear weapon arsenal faster than any other country, according to a report by a Swedish think tank. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) latest yearbook states that Beijing now has around 620 nuclear warheads.

In what could be a major cause of concern for the US and its allies, the report goes on to state that it is continuing to develop new nuclear systems. It states that China could “potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade.”

Beijing displayed some of the new missile systems during its 2025 military parade.

China’s nuclear warhead stockpile

The SIPRI report says that by January 2026, “China had loaded hundreds of missiles into three large missile silo fields in the north of the country, while working to complete 30 silos in three mountainous areas in the east.”

Moreover, the country now has 34 deployed warheads, up from 24 in 2025. The number of stored warheads has also risen from 576 in 2025 to 586 in 2026, leading to an overall number of 620 nuclear warheads in the stockpile.

It is important to note that the US and Russia still have the highest number of nuclear warheads in their stockpile. While the US has 3,700 warheads, Russia has an estimated 4,400 nuclear warheads in its military stockpile.

Even if China surpasses 1000 warheads by 2030, that will still amount to only about one quarter of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles, according to the report. However, China has shown the highest percentage growth in the production of these tools of destruction, and recent trends indicate it is not looking to stop.

The global inventory stands at an estimated 12,187 warheads – and of this, around 9,745 are in military stockpiles for use in case of a conflict. Of the total warheads in military stockpiles, roughly 4,012 are deployed with missiles and aircraft, while the rest are in storage.

There haven’t been many additions to the stockpiles of other nuclear-armed nations, such as the United Kingdom, France, and Pakistan, since 2025. India seems to have added 10 warheads, 12 of which are deployed, bringing its total count to 190.

Lack of dialogue among nuclear-armed nations

The report goes on to add that the growth of nuclear programs will very likely be pursued by all countries in the years to come in the post-New START world. It highlights that there is a lack of strategic dialogue or direct communication among certain nuclear-armed states.

SIPRI Director Karim Haggag states that world leaders advocating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack by a hostile state could ‘significantly increase nuclear risks.’

“The dangers associated with nuclear weapons are growing due to advances in weapon technology, the breakdown of nuclear arms control and heightened geopolitical tensions, among a range of other factors,” Haggag said.

“Along with the reduction in transparency and the loss of diplomatic channels for crisis management, the drift towards authoritarianism in some nuclear-armed states is contributing to even greater unpredictability,” said Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and Associate Director for the Nuclear Information Project at FAS.

The report also predicts that for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the pace of gradual dismantlement of retired nuclear warheads by Russia and the USA could slow down, leading to a situation in which the global inventory keeps rising.

There hasn’t been a significant increase in the inventories of Russia and the USA, but the modernization programs being pursued by both countries lead SIPRI to believe that they will likely “increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future.”