Wildfire scientists have unveiled a new rapid risk-assessment tool that shows substantial wildfire danger to homes and buildings in three major Arctic communities, revealing that between 14% and 26% of structures in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Whitehorse face high or very high risk from approaching flames. The study, led by Jennifer I. Schmidt of the University of Alaska Anchorage together with Robert H. Ziel, Monika P. Calef, Anna Varvak, and Julio C. Postigo, was published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. Rather than relying on complex fire-behavior simulations that demand specialist analysts and expensive software, the approach combines datasets that most local governments already possess: building footprints, zoning maps, and readily available vegetation layers. The result is an updatable, affordable portrait of which buildings face the greatest threat and where mitigation dollars can do the most good.

The urgency behind the work is hard to overstate. Wildfire costs and damages in the United States alone are now estimated at between USD 394 billion and 893 billion annually, and the 2019 to 2020 Australian fire disasters cost nearly USD 100 billion. The Arctic, often imagined as too cold and wet to burn, is not immune: since 1980, wildfires have cost Alaska between USD 2 billion and 5 billion, with projections suggesting costs could rise 68% by the end of the century. Canadian suppression expenses are expected to climb by 60 to 110% relative to the 1980 to 2009 baseline. Meanwhile, structure loss from wildfire has doubled over the past two decades in the western United States, and western Canada has suffered major structure-loss events in four of the last eight fire seasons. Nearly half the global population now lives within the wildland-urban interface, the zone where people and forests meet or intermingle, making tools that translate fire science into actionable local maps increasingly vital.

The researchers’ central premise is conceptually simple but technically consequential: for a structure to be at high risk, a flammable hazard must exist nearby, within roughly 500 meters, and the surrounding landscape must exhibit high wildfire exposure. The method begins with a flammability hazard layer at 30-meter resolution, built from a modified version of NASA’s ABoVE Landcover dataset in which generic evergreen classes were refined to reflect locally flammable species such as black spruce, white spruce, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, each assigned hazard ratings from 0 to 100. Critically, the team treated structures themselves as fuel. Each building contributes three fuel units to the surrounding flammability score, a value chosen after systematic testing of one through ten fuel units; three proved optimal, nudging densely built environments up a hazard category without causing wholesale reclassification. Structure density was computed at 90-meter resolution, multiplied by three, and added to the vegetation-based hazard to produce an enhanced flammability hazard layer.

Wildfire exposure, the second pillar of the assessment, captures the potential for hazard to travel. It is calculated as the average flammability hazard within a 100-meter or 500-meter radius, representing the likelihood that fire can reach and burn a given location even if the local fuels themselves are sparse. Exposure values, also ranging from 0 to 100, are classified into five tiers from very low to extreme, and concentrated pockets of flammable vegetation drive scores upward. The third ingredient is structure vulnerability, produced by multiplying the enhanced flammability hazard by a structure importance factor derived from zoning data: residential buildings and critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and nursing homes receive the highest weight, followed by commercial and other structures. Where zoning was unavailable, as on military installations like Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage and Fort Wainwright and Eielson Air Force Base in Fairbanks, the team collaborated with base personnel or interpreted aerial imagery to classify neighborhoods. The final risk score synthesizes hazard, exposure, and vulnerability into six categories, from extremely low to very high.

The results paint a nuanced picture of Arctic fire danger. Fairbanks showed the greatest proportion of structures in the top two risk categories at 26%, followed by Whitehorse at 22% and Anchorage at 14%. Anchorage, paradoxically, had the highest share of buildings in the top vulnerability tiers, 42%, yet the lowest risk, a consequence of its large urban footprint where dense housing raises vulnerability but fragmented, less-flammable vegetation and abundant developed ground suppress exposure. Fairbanks and Whitehorse, with structures woven into spruce- and pine-dominated boreal landscapes, showed closer alignment between vulnerability and risk. Anchorage was also the only study area where more than 1% of cells jumped two or more flammability categories when buildings were counted as fuel, at 7%, reflecting its 27% share of structure area containing seven or more buildings per cell. The analysis also confirmed the primacy of exposure: when a structure’s wildfire exposure was extreme, at least 87% of such buildings landed in the highest risk category across all three communities.

A key innovation lies in how the team redrew the wildland-urban interface itself. Traditional WUI maps distinguish urban, interface, and intermix zones; the researchers added a fourth category, the transmission zone, marking areas roughly 2.4 kilometers beyond the WUI boundary where fire could move into a community and where fuel breaks might be sited. Within the 500-meter buffer around structures, urban areas were defined by exposure values of 20 or less, interface zones by 21 to 60, and intermix by values above 60, cross-referenced with Alaska and Yukon wildfire management designations that prioritize suppression from critical down to unplanned or wilderness levels. Fairbanks claimed the largest overall WUI footprint, and the transmission zone proved the largest category in every study area, spanning 23,347 square kilometers around Anchorage, 6,180 square kilometers around Fairbanks, and 665 square kilometers around Whitehorse. Across all sites, most structures fell within interface zones, 52 to 61%, followed by intermix at 20 to 35%. Thousands of buildings sit in the high-risk interface and intermix zones where mitigation should concentrate: 15,537 structures in Anchorage, 16,212 in Fairbanks, and 3,734 in Whitehorse.

The method faced its most demanding test against a real disaster. On 17 August 2019, during southcentral Alaska’s hottest and driest summer on record, the likely human-caused McKinley wildfire was driven by high winds across 13.3 square kilometers in three days, destroying 52 residential structures, 84 outbuildings, and three commercial buildings, affecting 1,028 properties and forcing roughly 350 to 400 people to evacuate. By comparing pre-fire aerial imagery from 2017 with post-fire imagery from 2020 at 0.3-meter resolution and linking vanished buildings to the Matanuska-Susitna Borough structure database, the team identified exactly which structures burned. The verdict was statistically compelling: burned structures had significantly higher wildfire exposure than those that survived, and the proportion of burned structures with exposure values above 60 was significantly larger than among unburned ones. Structure risk scores above 60 were also significantly associated with burning. Notably, the test held even under conditions so extreme that normally resistant, low-flammability fuels were igniting.

The study’s design was shaped by sustained community engagement. Through workshops in 2019, 2021, and 2023, along with 15 to 20 meetings organized by Anchorage community councils and landowner associations and public events ranging from wildfire awareness days to Arbor Day, residents and agency staff reshaped everything from color schemes to model parameters. One consequential example: Anchorage residents and fire managers insisted that the maps reflect the spruce beetle outbreak first detected in 2016 and peaking around 2020, which killed and removed many spruce trees. The team responded with rules derived from aerial detection surveys, reclassifying white spruce cells in areas of beetle intensity of 11% or greater to mixed forest, and shifting mixed forest cells to open shrub, while a succession model updated vegetation on areas burned within the last 30 years. This iterative dialogue ensured outputs that both wildfire practitioners and the general public can interpret, a prerequisite the authors see as central to building fire-adapted communities.

The practical implications for planning are direct. Because mitigation funding is often tied to officially designated WUI areas, the ability to rapidly recalculate boundaries from updated building layers expands funding opportunities and keeps pace with community growth. The framework also points to different interventions in different zones: structures in intermix areas, surrounded by vegetation, benefit most from fuel treatments, while those in interface zones, where flammable vegetation is scarcer, are better served by home hardening measures such as fire-resistant roofs, siding, decks, screens, and unburnable buffers. Given that wildfire activity tends to occur where exposure exceeds 60, the authors recommend concentrating resources on the top two risk categories. Where national products like wildfirerisk.org rely on generalized fuel layers that can overestimate unburnable area in WUI zones and are updated too slowly for annually burning landscapes, this approach trades complexity for transparency, using local data that governments already collect. The underlying wildfire exposure toolbox is publicly available on GitHub, and the team argues that empowered residents, equipped with accurate, current, neighborhood-scale information, are crucial to reducing wildfire risk, particularly where communities may prefer action without government intervention.

A new Bayesian system called ALADYNOULLI is designed to forecast how multiple diseases unfold over time from longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) histories. The work targets a central challenge in longitudinal modelling: evaluating prediction without “information leakage,” so that future diagnoses never influence training for past timepoints. By explicitly simulating real clinical follow-up, the researchers aim to make risk estimates more trustworthy for decision-making.

In the primary assessment, ALADYNOULLI produced dynamic 1-year forecasts at 10 fixed moments during follow-up, starting at enrollment and extending to years 1 through 9. At each timepoint, models were retrained using only data available up to that moment, then tested on 1-year outcomes. The key metric was the median area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) across these dynamic evaluations, summarizing how predictive accuracy changes as new diagnoses accumulate.

The study spans 28 diseases and reports robust discrimination for several clinically important endpoints. Performance was strong for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), breast cancer, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and Parkinson’s disease, with AUC values of 0.879, 0.867, 0.801, 0.811, and 0.796, respectively. Importantly, the evaluation excluded people with prevalent disease at prediction time, aligning the comparisons with prospective risk.

ALADYNOULLI was also benchmarked against established clinical risk tools where feasible. At enrollment, static models trained only on baseline information were compared for both 1-year and 10-year horizons. While longer-term predictions naturally degraded, ALADYNOULLI retained meaningful power—for example, for ASCVD at 10 years—highlighting the advantage of learning from longitudinal EHR trajectories rather than relying solely on cross-sectional inputs.

Calibration analyses further supported reliability: predicted and observed event rates matched closely across millions of at-risk patient-time observations. The researchers report a mean squared error on calibration of 4.67 × 10⁻⁷, with mean predicted rates (5.55 × 10⁻⁴) closely tracking mean observed rates (5.45 × 10⁻⁴). This suggests not only ranking accuracy, but also quantitative risk realism.

To test whether results were driven by subtle temporal artifacts, the team ran sensitivity analyses that excluded events occurring shortly before prediction and varied washout windows. They also examined alternative horizons and a dynamic 10-year rolling interpolation strategy, which updates risk estimates as annual information becomes available. Together, these checks help confirm that temporal patterns are being learned in a causally aligned manner.

Overall, the findings position ALADYNOULLI as a clinically relevant framework for multi-disease risk forecasting, combining longitudinal EHR modelling with predictive discrimination and calibration. By rigorously preventing leakage and validating dynamic follow-up scenarios, the approach offers a pathway toward more actionable, time-aware risk prediction in real-world healthcare settings.

Subject of Research: Longitudinal EHR-based multi-disease risk prediction using Bayesian modelling and genetic/EHR integration
Article Title: A Bayesian framework for longitudinal EHR and genetic discovery.
Article References: Urbut, S.M., Ding, Y., Nakao, T. et al. A Bayesian framework for longitudinal EHR and genetic discovery. Nature (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10780-5
Image Credits: AI Generated
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10780-5
Keywords: longitudinal EHR, Bayesian framework, disease risk prediction, dynamic forecasting, temporal validation, calibration, AUC, ASCVD